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#2
03-05-2007, 11:25 PM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
[ QUOTE ]
But isn't it more likely to make a flush with five cards out with A-K suited than a set with A-A? [/ QUOTE ] It's not clear, but I think the aces win this. BTW AT down to A5s make the nuts more often than AKs. With aces to be the nuts with a set you need: - on of the two remaining aces - no 3 cards in any 5 in a row - no 3 cards of the same suit - no board pair With AKs to make the nuts with a flush you would need: - 3 cards of the particular suit in question - the 3 cards cannot allow a straight flush unless the K would be required - no board pairing The aces would allow a lot more combinations due to not caring about what suit in particular. This would be offset by the fact that you are required to have one of only two remaining aces in the hand. If you ignore what the boards actually have to look like except that the aces would require an ace and the AKs would require 3 of that suit, there are 2*(49 choose 4) = 423752 combinations. With AKs there are (11 choose 3)(47 choose 2) = 178365 combinations. So there are about 3 times as many boards where you get either a set of aces or quads, than boards where you get a flush. I don't think eliminating 3 or more flush boards will eliminate enough to make AKs better on flushes alone. There are more straight coordinated boards with the ace out there, but I still don't think that will be enough. 
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#3
03-06-2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
[ QUOTE ]
But isn't it more likely to make a flush with five cards out with A-K suited than a set with A-A? [/ QUOTE ] No. I don't have any easy way to do the math here, but the set is almost twice as common.
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#4
03-05-2007, 10:17 PM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
splawn, thanks........
you and others are most likely right about AA being the most likely to hit nuts. but aren't most 5 board card combo's co-ordinated for a straight? doing this off top of my head. and the ace on board works high and low. seems like most are co-ordinated and you have to hit the ace.... funny, didn't realize that with pair on board, nuts isn't a full house. splawn, i appreciate your help and glad you didn't hold my prior criticism against me... your bigger than me!!! LOL
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#5
03-05-2007, 11:32 PM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
[ QUOTE ]
splawn, thanks........ you and others are most likely right about AA being the most likely to hit nuts. but aren't most 5 board card combo's co-ordinated for a straight? [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty simple. AA makes the most money, hands down. There's a reason for that. b
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#6
03-06-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
[ QUOTE ]
splawn, thanks........ you and others are most likely right about AA being the most likely to hit nuts. but aren't most 5 board card combo's co-ordinated for a straight? doing this off top of my head. and the ace on board works high and low. seems like most are co-ordinated and you have to hit the ace.... [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I think you may be right - there are a large number of uncoordinated A-high boards, but I miscounted the number of JT straight boards and AKs flush boards (ran out of fingers and toes), so I'm no longer convinced top sets are the dominat factor. Someone needs to run this to see or be less lazy than me and really figure out the answer. You've also got a good point about A playing low. There may be more uncoordinate K-high boards than A-high since you can bury an aditional card down in wheel land without making a straight. So now I'm not so sure. It might be AA, KK, JTs (not that the suited matters much in that case) depending on which factor is dominant. Hell, if nut 3-on-board flushes are the dominant factor, it might even be some Ax with modestly low x to allow more seperate 4-on-board straights, although the number of possible nut full houses goes down as x drops.
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#7
03-06-2007, 08:27 PM
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Re: Interesting question that I\'m not sure has been answered
I think the str8 and flush potential with a hand like AKs overrides set potential, boards coordinate enough to make some sort of str8 possible alot.
For instance 4 6 A J 7... AA isnt the nuts...
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#8
03-06-2007, 08:33 PM
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IT is not AA, here is why...
ok, everyones saying AA, here is why it isnt AA...
If the board pairs, AA isnt the nuts, quads can be out, if the board has a 3 flush, it isnt the nuts, if there is any str8 possibility, it isnt the nuts.... Clearly if it sets up and the board is completely uncoordinated, it is the nut hand, but this happens SO SO rarely!!! Think about it... A 4 7 j 8 = 5 9 equals nuts. Everyone go to their PT and look at AA, then read the board, it makes the most money but it does not show down the nuts often. AA isnt the nuts on a huge amount of boards... Lets look at some other hands. J10s. makes str8s and flushes often, problem = flushes arent nut flushes... AKs - this is my bet, here is why.... It hits str8s and flushes and when it does, it is always the nuts. it hits boats and quads as often as non pair hands, keep in mind, a paired hand making a boat or quads is very rare. The most common hands that are the nuts will be some sort of str8 or flush... this is an interesting debate, but I still love AK... Any other suited connector cant be a nut flush or else i would love J10s because of its higher str8 potential
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