UFC 68

[igetbadbeat]

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I see big value betting MacDonald at +406

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That's why I hedged by betting him @ +420.

[igetbadbeat]

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I see big value betting MacDonald at +406

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Did u see value in soku?

[csuf_gambl0o0r]

lets hopes i can get to vegas before the lines move too far or better yet, lets hope the line moves the other way.

[Patton4]

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And has anyone seen holman fight? Im not too impressed with hamill as a fighter aside from his wrestling of course. So if holman is as good of a wrestler at least, it could be a great bet.

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I sure hope the UFC doesn't try to push Hamil down our throats. As soon as they give him a match-up with a proficient striker, he will be finished. There is no way he is going to succeed in the UFC unless he fixes the way he holds his hands. He is just waiting to get knocked out. I don't know anything about Holman though, but it seems like the UFC is giving Hamil a fight in which his obvious glaring weakness won't be exploited if Holman is a wrestler.

[MikeyPatriot]

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im betting the house on Sylvia. big tim at -266 is such an insane deal, way too good to pass up. Oppurunities like this don't come too often, about once in a lifetime. This is guranteed money, the easiest money you'll ever make in your life. Randy has no chance of winning. If Monson and Ricco couldn't do anything with Tim then Randy certainly won't be able to. And he certainly can't outstrike him. Plus Randy is 44 now. This is such a sure thing it's not even funny. It's like AA vs. KK all in preflop.

Coincidentally, ill be in Vegas this weekend so i can put str8 bets at the sportsbook. I'm hoping the last second hyping of Couture will move the lines and give me even better odds on Tim.

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Just like Noguiera couldn't lose last week? While I agree that there's a lot of value on Tim with this line, he still has to get into the octagon and fight.

[Jordan]

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This is such a sure thing it's not even funny. It's like AA vs. KK all in preflop.

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You don't play much poker, do you?

[igetbadbeat]

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im betting the house on Sylvia. big tim at -266 is such an insane deal, way too good to pass up. Oppurunities like this don't come too often, about once in a lifetime. This is guranteed money, the easiest money you'll ever make in your life. Randy has no chance of winning. If Monson and Ricco couldn't do anything with Tim then Randy certainly won't be able to. And he certainly can't outstrike him. Plus Randy is 44 now. This is such a sure thing it's not even funny. It's like AA vs. KK all in preflop.

Coincidentally, ill be in Vegas this weekend so i can put str8 bets at the sportsbook. I'm hoping the last second hyping of Couture will move the lines and give me even better odds on Tim.

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Just like Noguiera couldn't lose last week? While I agree that there's a lot of value on Tim with this line, he still has to get into the octagon and fight.

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This is very different. Nogueira was a -2300 favorite...Tim has 10X better odds. THat's ahuge difference.

Also, we've seen both Tim and Randy fight...no one knew anything about Soku and while he was a def no play for me because I love Noguiera...I could have seen someon justifying a play on him. Unlike most of the people here, I don't like betting on favorites above -180, but put your money on Sylvia, there is huge value in that line.

[igetbadbeat]

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This is such a sure thing it's not even funny. It's like AA vs. KK all in preflop.

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You don't play much poker, do you?

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LoL, i agree hence my SN. but if I got to bet on AA vs KK @ -290, I'd bet 6u.

[swope]

couture +240
sylvia -290

this is a deceptively hard fight to pick, because sylvia hasnt faced a quality wrestler in ages, and because randy is really very, very smart and excells at working suitable gameplans. light action on sylvia is probably smart but if randy shows up and start chopping sylvias legs in rd 1, kiss your money goodbye.

hughes -650
lytle +525

never bet fights with odds like this, its just stupid. anyone wondering how invincible fighters fare after getting their sh!t pushed in needs to rewatch the hendo v silva debacle. hughes should win but god.. why bother when you can bet on babalu at -445?

lambert +365
babalu -445

best value on the card, right there. babalu is undervalued following his brutalization at the hands of chuck. lambert is about to get socked in the puss then subbed standing.

franklin -500
macdonald +400

-500.. why bother? these days its almost always +EV to bet on the underdog when a huge overdog is coming off a big loss (see notes on hughes v lytle), ill sit it out all the same.

mcfedries +210
kampmann -250

too close to pick at these odds. if kampmann drops to -150 or so, id put some action on him, but thats not going to happen.

matt hamill -295
rex holman +245

lotta value on hamill here. holman is a wrestler who started training mma in 2005. hes probably being brought in to pad out hamill's record. sure to be a terrifically boring fight, but i like hamill a lot here at -295.

fioravanti +285
fitch -335

fitch all the way. fitch is the vastly superior talent here, plus fioravanti's cardio is garbage.

dent +200
tibau -240

very hard to call. dent looked good against diaz but tibau is the better fighter.. but tibau is cutting to 155, which is no joke. im picking dent by sub in the later rounds but im not putting money on it.

gilliam +325
varner -395

varner actually gave hermes franca trouble at ufc 62, so its unlikely that gilliam, whom is 12 years older and has done hard time, is going to bring anything to the table of note. more than likely, this fight is taking place to groom varner as a talent. if he doesnt do anything stupid or get caught on the button, he should win the decision easily.

[recipro]

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hughes -650 / lytle +525
never bet fights with odds like this, its just stupid.

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I am assuming you mean on the favorite? Also, I think Fedor breaks this rule.

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lambert +365 / babalu -445
best value on the card, right there. babalu is undervalued following his brutalization at the hands of chuck. lambert is about to get socked in the puss then subbed standing.

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Not so sure about this. -445 seems like a lot of juice to lay on Babalu, and Lambert hasn't been subbed since 2001.

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matt hamill -295 / rex holman +245
lotta value on hamill here. holman is a wrestler who started training mma in 2005. hes probably being brought in to pad out hamill's record. sure to be a terrifically boring fight, but i like hamill a lot here at -295.

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Which one of these guys are you talking about? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]