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#21
02-28-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
ok, Lets start with the turn bet, any specific reason for advocating a check on the turn???
Lets look at possible holdings... An ace- we prob split 9-unlikely but we would be screwed draw- reasonable considering the way he played 7- reasonable considering the way he played So basically, the least of 1 of 4 of villans holdings makes a turn bet bad for us... This is an easy turn bet and I havent seen any arguements otherwise.... Now, River raise, Also fairly easy, compare the times we see 7 or other ace against the times he has AA or the case 9, very very very seldom, we split often. I think the river raise is an easy + ev play and am willing to listen to any reasons why it isnt. thanks cdl 
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#22
02-28-2007, 06:16 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
If he has an ace we most likely have to catch well on the river to split. This particular opponent would not 3 bet any Ace pf oop besides AK. He would probably cr turn all aces above and including AT. Again if he has a 7 he folds to a turn bet which we dont want (but would call a river bet). If he has a straight draw then he might bet any river card.
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#26
02-28-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
Most people get away from a 7 on that turn. That's really all we need to establish to make a case for checking behind. That and it's nice to occasionally bet the flop, check the turn, and roll over top pair at showdown anyway.
Justin's post should have closed the door on a river raise.
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#27
02-28-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
[ QUOTE ]
ok, Lets start with the turn bet, any specific reason for advocating a check on the turn??? Lets look at possible holdings... An ace- we prob split 9-unlikely but we would be screwed draw- reasonable considering the way he played 7- reasonable considering the way he played So basically, the least of 1 of 4 of villans holdings makes a turn bet bad for us... This is an easy turn bet and I havent seen any arguements otherwise.... Now, River raise, Also fairly easy, compare the times we see 7 or other ace against the times he has AA or the case 9, very very very seldom, we split often. I think the river raise is an easy + ev play and am willing to listen to any reasons why it isnt. thanks cdl [/ QUOTE ] The check is bluff induction. You will often get some hands to bet the river that wouldn't have ever called the turn.
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#29
02-28-2007, 07:30 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
I have player 3 betting AQ, AK, several pocket pairs.
So your counting on him having A9,AA,A10,AJ, at this point and your worried about a cr? He may fold to a turn bet and I agree with that part of your poker logic. May being a key word. If we do what you say and he does have a draw, we are letting him draw free and fire if he hits...Instead of making him pay to draw and questioning a call if he bets or raises a draw completed river.
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#30
02-28-2007, 07:49 PM
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Re: Blind steal situation
[ QUOTE ]
Justin's post should have closed the door on a river raise. [/ QUOTE ] Only if we agree that lesser pairs will not pay off. [ QUOTE ] the bluffs don't call, and I have to imagine the 7's and pocket pairs rarely call also. Not to mention the 7's and pocket pairs probably aren't betting the river anyways. [/ QUOTE ] With the benefit of knowing the outcome, we know that this opponent will bet the river with a 7. It seems that increases the likelihood that he'll pay off the river too. The OP did not play his ace particularly strong and some opponents who are running badly will make spite or frustration calls here. Distribution points to a raise. Raising a hand with which we split here isn't "pointless" as distribution says we're ahead enough to be profitable. [ QUOTE ] If he has an ace we most likely have to catch well on the river to split. This particular opponent would not 3 bet any Ace pf oop besides AK. He would probably cr turn all aces above and including AT. Again if he has a 7 he folds to a turn bet which we dont want (but would call a river bet). If he has a straight draw then he might bet any river card. [/ QUOTE ] This seems to be very sound and reasonable thinking. If the BB is behind he probably has three outs. There's no sense in losing a 7 holding here. If the BB's ahead the OP may be condemned to at best a split. The OP wants to get to showdown here but not after a turn checkraise.
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