The Anatomy of a Downswing

[raistlinx]

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However, if we're good players, we're hopefully seldom going to be in situations where we are big dogs. So this means that variance is more likely to effect us negatively than positively

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Amen... the key to variance IMHO, is to realize the slant toward negativity.

....that and the fact that FTP is rigged toward the suckout artists.... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Amen.

[TheProdigy]

Cry;

Ok I got to read the entire thing now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What you are saying is your big hands will be a bigger cause of variance, and I agree. I think your big hands are not usually something you are playing horribly wrong though, because it is realllyy hard to play them bad. What I am saying is that you could be losing because you aren't getting these cards, but instead of worrying about not getting sets, you should be worrying about playing better with 1 pair hands and the such.

You outlined this and the huge difference of this at the end of your post. Although you may only get 1 set compared with the 5 you should've got in a certain session, if you played your 100 one pair hands nearly optimally, then it would still be a breakeven session. If you do this consistently then you are putting in 9 out of 10 sessions where you break even or barely lose(not hitting sets etc) or where you can win quite a bit(where you hit 3 extra sets and extract 200BB).

The sets are nice, but to avoid losing big you have to avoid tilt and constantly improve your play with the hands you will always receive in each session.

[I Gotta Push]

brilliant thread - hopefully I can thwart my abyssmal downswing as well

Is there any way to analyze in PT all the times you've gotten all-in and what the situations were? Or, like Cry mentioned, how to view your big pairs performance once all-in against underpairs?

[TheProdigy]

Check this thread out:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...vc=#Post9343602

[marken]

I also find myself in a downswing right now. its only over about 7k hands but i feel so frustrated. I dont win much w/ my sets, all my CBets are getting called my bluffs dont work, and all my toppairs get raised on the turn. So anyway, to the question. I have calculated the numbers for won BB (twice the size of the big blind) per hand with specific holdings. it is only done to hands that where not folded. How does my numbers look?

First of all, 30k hands from before the downswing. i had a winning rate of 5.93 BB/100 hands. also, it is 100$ NL:

High Card 1.100226449
One Pair 1.468725413
Two Pair 1.868559451
Three Of A Kind 5.604306723
Straight 6.791935484
Flush 7.81302521
Full House 12.22
Four Of A Kind 19.37272727
Straight Flush 4.875

can someone with a decent size of their database post their numbers? if i get some more data i can calculate the confidence intervals and come up with a "true value" for the different hands. this might be useful to look at to see if you are in a downswing.

Ok, now over to my downswing.

High Card 1.576953125
One Pair 0.24787234
Two Pair 2.962765957
Three Of A Kind 4.194642857
Straight 9.9
Flush 5.975
Full House 7.661363636
Four Of A Kind 9.25

The total amount of hands here are way to few, but i think that you atleast can look at the number for one pair. its 0.24 compared to 1.46 before the loosing streak. As someone pointed out earlier in this thread this value should not be vary that much due to variance but rather due to bad play.

what do you guys think?

[raistlinx]

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I also find myself in a downswing right now. its only over about 7k hands but i feel so frustrated. I dont win much w/ my sets, all my CBets are getting called my bluffs dont work, and all my toppairs get raised on the turn. So anyway, to the question. I have calculated the numbers for won BB (twice the size of the big blind) per hand with specific holdings. it is only done to hands that where not folded. How does my numbers look?

First of all, 30k hands from before the downswing. i had a winning rate of 5.93 BB/100 hands. also, it is 100$ NL:

High Card 1.100226449
One Pair 1.468725413
Two Pair 1.868559451
Three Of A Kind 5.604306723
Straight 6.791935484
Flush 7.81302521
Full House 12.22
Four Of A Kind 19.37272727
Straight Flush 4.875

can someone with a decent size of their database post their numbers? if i get some more data i can calculate the confidence intervals and come up with a "true value" for the different hands. this might be useful to look at to see if you are in a downswing.

Ok, now over to my downswing.

High Card 1.576953125
One Pair 0.24787234
Two Pair 2.962765957
Three Of A Kind 4.194642857
Straight 9.9
Flush 5.975
Full House 7.661363636
Four Of A Kind 9.25

The total amount of hands here are way to few, but i think that you atleast can look at the number for one pair. its 0.24 compared to 1.46 before the loosing streak. As someone pointed out earlier in this thread this value should not be vary that much due to variance but rather due to bad play.

what do you guys think?

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How big is your downswing?

[marken]

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How big is your downswing?

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its about 5 Buyins. But its not the amount that is the hardest part (and not that big of a size either). it feels like im lost all the time in the hands. my regular moves doesnt work anymore. i cant steal pots, i get raised w/ my toppair and so on. They put hard decisions on me all the time.

[raistlinx]

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How big is your downswing?

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its about 5 Buyins. But its not the amount that is the hardest part (and not that big of a size either). it feels like im lost all the time in the hands. my regular moves doesnt work anymore. i cant steal pots, i get raised w/ my toppair and so on. They put hard decisions on me all the time.

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How many hands have you played in total?

[marken]

7k hands this week so far. last week was a pretty good week. everything started this monday.

[raistlinx]

No I meant how many hands have you played all together in total.