There's Nothing to Post About

[China Willy]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop drinking.

[DeeJ]

I thought this was an easy raise but when you consider that the BB check-3bet the flop it certainly looks like he flopped something big. Whether it was a big draw or a big hand you cannot know for sure but 75 looks very possible. If he has 33,44,66 or TT then raising might be the best play. Does he have 33/44/66/TT often enough here for you to raise the river? what about 65? yeah, I think you can raise the river and call.

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
he has a big hand here and is calling the raise close to 100% of the time when he doesn't have 75.

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I have to go to work so I don't have time to get to all these posts. But this is where I think you may be wrong - I think, if he had a set, he would lay it down some portion of the time to my raise (and not an insignificant percentage). But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc. But I don't think it's a given he pays off a raise with less than the same hand I have. And I think it is FAR from a given that he will bet a set here - again, maybe you have to be there. Good thread. Results later.

Jeff

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

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with at least 4 others going to see this flop?

[Jeffage]

Another point is that, it is unlikely that UTG is going to pay off a river bet, caught in the middle of two players when the deuce slides off. He is not blind or retarded. Against a total tard that will call KK here despite the deuce falling, the BB still firing and his relative position, maybe it would be different.

Jeff

[blindside]

i cannot possibly see 44,66,TT not betting and calling that river. 33 probably bets and i'm pretty sure he's counting on a call from utg rather than yourself.

but i would always go with my read though it'd be really hard for me to not raise this.

can you bluff raise this a small but not insignficant portion of the time? if you can, doesn't this make it an easy bet/call with a set from his perspective?

the pot is humongous and i doubt anyone but a crazy bluffer will be folding, so i would doubt he is bet/folding here.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
Posting blind cuz I'm too lazy to read this whole thread.

I agree 100% about preflop.

The flop and the turn are pretty much standard so I'll move on to the river play.

The river is basically a math problem. For example, If you believe this guy would call the BB with 64o,63o,43o,52o,75o,33,66,44 and play all these hands the same way every street then you have a profitable raise/call situation on your hands. If you think this guy wouldnt call with offsuit garbage thus making his range 64s,63s,43s,66,44,33,75s,52s, and again would bet the river with all these hands then its an even more profitable raise/call situation.

The river play gets more complicated if we look at it from a logical/psychological perspective. For instance, If we believe this guy would not bet the river with a set cuz he fears a straight, then obviously all we have is a crying call on the river.

So whether we should raise/call this river or just call depends on what we think this guy will do with his 2pair/set hands on the river.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc.

Jeff

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If this is what you believe Jeff then youre right, there is nothing to post about. Follow your read and just call the river.

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'll be the nit to say this is a fold preflop, not close, unless you just want to gamble but no way is this +EV in my mind.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to agree with DD on this. I probably would have respected the UTG raiser & mucked preflop. Small suited connectors are good for mixing up your play & the only way I see this as being +EV is if you hit the kinda flop Jeffage hit. It was about as good as you can ask for without flopping the nuts.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
But this is where I think you may be wrong - I think, if he had a set, he would lay it down some portion of the time to my raise (and not an insignificant percentage). But I just don't think he's betting the river with a set here - that was my gut feeling. That's why maybe there is "nothing to post about" since I'm the one there, etc. But I don't think it's a given he pays off a raise with less than the same hand I have. And I think it is FAR from a given that he will bet a set here - again, maybe you have to be there. Good thread. Results later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff:

Assuming that we are talking about the Borg 40/80 game, I think your assumptions are wrong unless the villain is some sort of superhero. He is betting the river with a set because unless you have a 5 his hand is still good. He is calling a raise because the pots too big. It comes across in this thread as if your projecting the results onto the villain (perhaps not, but thats how it comes across), I think your giving him too much credit in a vacuum as you make your river line decision. Raise, call a 3 bet as you pray. Waiting for results, but I think we all know what they were.

PS: I'll play 54s on the button getting 9.5:2 immediate odds, but unless I know the button is folding I pass in the CO.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]