Commerce $1500NL vs Cunningham

[lemonPeel]

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i understand all that David. Here's the thing though. If Alan has AA/KK on this flop he is going to try and get to showdown, not play a really big pot. So he is likely to check behind on the flop, or if he bets and is called check the turn. Even more so with JJ/TT. The only hand here which checking allows to put more money into the pot is AK, which Alan may (but certainly not 100%) take a stab with.

Ive played with Alan, I don't think he's one of those read into your soul guys. He plays really good, solid poker. You are gonna have a hard time convincing him to play a big pot here regardless of what he has (unless he has AA and is convinced you have exactly KK, a circumstance i dont think its possible to create). So, im gonna make him put in money now and on the river with a big pair (betting the flop, checking the turn and betting the river makes it very hard for AA/KK to fold). Am I letting him off of AK, sure, but I don't particularly think he's taking a stab with a whiffed AK anyway (not when you consider that he has to worry about UTG also).

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Hey, I would like to know why AC would just like to get to showdown with AA or KK here if he has one of these hands? If he had AA/KK and just calls the reraise preflop in position, what else is he waiting for with these two hands if not to play a big pot now? The board came a face card with a small pair on board, normally this is a very good flop for AA/KK, no? Unless someone paired up and has trips on this board ( unlikely as the raises came from up front ) or exactly QQ, he is way ahead of anything that is in play and isn't the idea to get as much money in now when you think you are the favorite? Why would he check and try to get to showdown cheaply? I just don't understand this.

[Ansky]

David,

Once we check the flop, then decide to put more money in the pot, our hand becomes transparent. Do you disagree?

[citanul]

david,

if an unknown hero shows up at your table and the action went as it did to the flop, is there anything hero could do that would make YOU put in all your chips if you were in AC's spot with AA or KK and did not spike your hand?

c

[MLG]

lemonpeel,

My guess is that he is calling preflop with those hands hoping UTG will go all-in and that carl will hang himself in the middle. Once he gets the 3 way action this board is much more dangerous than say T42, because there are very few hands that will want to build big pots on this board that a player reraising an UTG raiser can have. On a T high board Allen can expect to be called by KK/QQ and maybe JJ if he builds a big pot (although Carl may be getting away from QQ). On a K72 board the reraiser can have AK and get stuck against AA/KK. With a Q77 flop, AK missed, JJ is unhappy and QQ is beating you. So, only in the specific case of Alan having AA and colson having KK is a big pot going to be good for Alan.

[SossMan]

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The problem with pretending you have ace king here, is that it's completely transparent.

Once you put in any money after checking, your hand will look like a total trap. If you check after reraising preflop, and then raise him on this board, or just call, I think it wouldn't be all that hard for him to fold an AA KK type hand, and its disastrous to let him fold that at any point in the hand. If he has JJ the only way you get more money from him is if a jack turns, and well, thats not something to hope for. I think we have to address getting money from the only hands that you CAN get money from, and that's KK/AA. I would lead out here for about 2500. This way we are coming close to comitting him in the hand. As for utg, I think he has AK or TT or something so I don't see much of a way to get him to commit a lot of chips. Our target is cunningham. On the turn if a blank falls I think we need to check, and make it look like a whiffed AK which has just gotten scared. If he checks, bet big on the river, or possibly go for a super risky check raise if you think he is a thin value bettor.

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my thoughts exactly. especially the part about your trap being completely transparent as soon as you end up putting more money in the pot. With the stack sizes the way they are, I really like betting something like 2000-2300'ish. That way, any reasonable raise by AC is likely to commit him.

If we check, we might get 2k some of the time from a hand like TT-AA or AK from AC, but we are likely to get better action (albeit, possibly a lower % of the time). The added benefit of leading here is that if we get it to showdown (voluntarily or not) we will get a lot of credit on our future AK whiff c-bets and that should give us a lot more lattitude.

p.s. I don't know why i used 'we' in the above paragraph, since me and Carl aren't on a team. sry.

[SossMan]

with my usual "I have AK acting"

isn't that pretty transparent against good players once you put in more money if an A or K doesn't show up? I can't imagine that they don't see the 'weak means strong' tell every day.

[locutus2002]

I'd check, and take a complete value line. You are unlikely to trap Allen OOP when he has 100XBB++.

both players are on pairs or premium hands AK,AA,KK,JJ,TT,AQ is unlikely.

You can't win a big pot unless someone improves substantially.

If you lead out you will kill any action on the turn because QQ is solidly in your range to reraise PF with especially if a player has ak.

I'd check the turn and be looking to value bet the river for 2400. I think that's how I would play with my entire range of hands.

If Allen probe bets (stabbing at pot) for about T1500 you have a better chance bringing UTG along than if you lead.

I'd probably call and check the turn, he'll probably check behind. And I'd lead for T4000 on the river, hoping he completed his hand. I think he has to call at least AA there, and goes broke when he fills.

Without any read on you, the players are going to be more reluctant to commit chips in marginal situations.

[lemonPeel]

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lemonpeel,

My guess is that he is calling preflop with those hands hoping UTG will go all-in and that carl will hang himself in the middle. Once he gets the 3 way action this board is much more dangerous than say T42, because there are very few hands that will want to build big pots on this board that a player reraising an UTG raiser can have. On a T high board Allen can expect to be called by KK/QQ and maybe JJ if he builds a big pot (although Carl may be getting away from QQ). On a K72 board the reraiser can have AK and get stuck against AA/KK. With a Q77 flop, AK missed, JJ is unhappy and QQ is beating you. So, only in the specific case of Alan having AA and colson having KK is a big pot going to be good for Alan.

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So let's say I was AC, I'm thinking something like this preflop right? I see the shorter stack make a raise utg ( which indicates a very strong hand ), then the guy next to him, who knows that the raiser raised UTG and is short and reraises him, so that makes it seem that hes even stronger so I call, hoping UTG moves in, UTG+1 calls and then I move in over the top and make UTG+1 very uncomfortable with his hand? Is that thinking correct?

[MLG]

lemon peel,

yes, although im sure alan was actually hoping that carl would overpush to isolate.

[jlocdog]

I have read all of the replies and I personally just feel that first off he would have reraised with AA or KK. AA for sure. He has a raise and a reraise ahead of him, plus a "bigstack" in there. No need to get to fancy here. Also when he peeked at your stack and decided to just call are we all to assume that means he has a mid PP? He is rushing pretty good, and a nice suited connector could very well be his holding. He might have been checking out your stack to see if it was worth his time. Seeing as how the UTG has minimal chips he probably wouldn't bother with JTs,T9s,QTs.... With your stack those hands can become monsters as implied odds go. Just a thought there. As well, if he has no expierience with you than you checking your "AK" here just means your a weak player who misses many opportunities with timely C-bets. I don't think it means you have a monster. Your hand seems to be TOO BIG to possibly lose action here. If you check and he checks behind you, all you have done is give him a chance to catch up. You have totally crippled the deck here and need that. If he does indeed have AA or KK and sets up on the turn than you need to give him credit (and tons of luck) for playing that hand as slowly as he did. I have no problem with checking the flop and turn and then betting the river. This way looks like you r giving one last attempt at the pot. Again if he folds then he wouldn't have called a flop bet either.