Stud high: hidden aces

[Micturition Man]

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You do realize that your 5th street bet will now be giving opponents close to 8-1 odds correct? This is not a good plan with one pair of aces.

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This argument is misleading. There's reason they are now getting good odds - because they made big FTOP mistakes on 3rd and 4th.

Let me put it this way - if the OP with his buried aces had the option of forcing everyone to put in ten big bets blind on 3rd street, should he do it?

It will after all make them correct to chase.

[Micturition Man]

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I dislike 3rd and 4th. You want to play AA against as few opponents as possible.

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That entirely depends on what hands they're playing. If your limp causes a bunch of people to play one pair hands for one or two bets, that's very good for you.

If it causes people to play straight or flush draws for one bet that's bad.

[Bartholow]

I'm with Micturation Man on this one, to a point.

[SWINGMYTOOL]

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Let me put it this way - if the OP with his buried aces had the option of forcing everyone to put in ten big bets blind on 3rd street, should he do it?

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This is a really good point. Abdul basically won the holdem debate (that 2+2 had been too focused on forcing mistakes on later streets and not focused enough on pushing equity edges) when 2+2 conceded with Small Stakes Holdem, and the same thing is likely true for stud.


Here's some very rough analysis for this hand:


WE BLOAT

Let's say for simplicity that the aggro Q indeed has crap like unpaired high cards and he folds unimproved on 5th. And the other two players have small pairs and they continue to the river cuz King Yao bloated them in. 3-ways, the aces win about 1/2 the time vs. two pairs. If Yao's opponents never pay off on the river when beat but they make him pay one bet when they're ahead, then the profit for the whole hand, start to finish, is something like .5 * (12.5 - 3.5) + .5 * (-4.5) = 2.25bb. This is pessimistic, since they will sometimes pay off with worse (like when they improve to a losing two pair) and Yao can sometimes fold a loser for less (like when they pair a door card).


WE DON'T BLOAT AND PLAY TO ELIMIATE

If Yao gets it heads up with a crap hand that always folds on 5th, he profits ~1.5bb. If Yao gets it heads up with a pair that chases to the river, the aces win ~2/3 of the time. If we optimistically assume his opponent always pays off on the end, total profit for the hand is about 2/3 * 4.5 - 1/3 * 4 = 1.7bb.


Again, this is very rough analysis with simplifying assumptions, but I think it makes it clear that tricky King Yao's pumping of a big multiway pot is not a big mistake, and is probably .5bb+ better than traditional "heads up with the best hand" stud. In tougher games, though, there are metagame considerations that help the case for the elimination play, like being able to get HU and make your opponent fold when you have crap.

[BeerMoney]

Swing, r u considering the $$$ in the pot?

[SWINGMYTOOL]

BeerMoney,

Yeah, but I've never played no 75/150, so I didn't know the structure and had to make up some numbers for ante and bringin. I figured the antes were about .5bb total, but Google tells me it's more like $15*8 = .8bb for the antes and $25 for the BI. Also, in the "not bloated case", I figured you would get HU with the limper but I forgot to count the dead BI, so that's another .17bb. (BI doesn't matter for the bloated case.)

So that changes it to something like:
3-way bloated pot ev = 2.4bb
HU, opponent folds on 5th ev = 1.97bb
HU, opponent goes to river rv = 1.98bb

If someone wants to double-check my mathz that would be great.

[Andy B]

$15 ante and $25 bring-in is standard.

[SGspecial]

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No offense, but if you're just learning stud you may want to consider a 15/30 table or less. It makes the mistakes go down easier [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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No offense taken. However, you are probably making the mistake thinking that 75/150 to me is the same as 75/150 to you.

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Touche King! Still -EV is -EV, even if your BR is plenty big enough to take it. You certainly want to play at limits that are high enough so the quality of play is like high limit stakes, but wouldn't 15/30 do it? BTW if you ever want to throw money away learning Razz pleaze give me a buzz first [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[*TT*]

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No offense, but if you're just learning stud you may want to consider a 15/30 table or less. It makes the mistakes go down easier [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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No offense taken. However, you are probably making the mistake thinking that 75/150 to me is the same as 75/150 to you.

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Touche King! Still -EV is -EV, even if your BR is plenty big enough to take it. You certainly want to play at limits that are high enough so the quality of play is like high limit stakes, but wouldn't 15/30 do it? BTW if you ever want to throw money away learning Razz pleaze give me a buzz first [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I'm pretty sure King can show at least a marginal profit in the 75/150 game with little formal stud training. His understanding on the Theory of Poker is far greater than most of the posters in this forum. Stud isn't hard if your a very solid player with great knowledge of general poker theory. Where study helps is in the really tough scenarios where only experience can guide you, luckily those super tough situations aren't that common where they can destroy a player's session every time.

PS: Read his book, Weighing the Odds. Good stuff!

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[SGspecial]

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No offense taken. However, you are probably making the mistake thinking that 75/150 to me is the same as 75/150 to you.

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Touche King! Still -EV is -EV, even if your BR is plenty big enough to take it. You certainly want to play at limits that are high enough so the quality of play is like high limit stakes, but wouldn't 15/30 do it? BTW if you ever want to throw money away learning Razz pleaze give me a buzz first [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I'm pretty sure King can show at least a marginal profit in the 75/150 game with little formal stud training. His understanding on the Theory of Poker is far greater than most of the posters in this forum. Stud isn't hard if your a very solid player with great knowledge of general poker theory. Where study helps is in the really tough scenarios where only experience can guide you, luckily those super tough situations aren't that common where they can destroy a player's session every time.

PS: Read his book, Weighing the Odds. Good stuff!

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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I have no reason to doubt his poker acumen, but if he's posting stud hands here and asking US for advice, I'd say his stud game needs a little polishing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] BTW, I intend to read his book when I get a few days and Chen's book when I get a few months.