200NL - horrible spot with bottom set

[mdkrahn]

What can you reasonably put the villain on here if he's a solid tag.

Ranges anyone?

Seems like most 2pair combos are unlikely, with the exception of AK and J10.

KQ probably would've folded preflop.

Other possibilities include JJ and 1010,
which probably would've raised at some point,
presumably on the flop.

So he rarely has a straight here right?

[disciple]

I think his most likely hand range are QQ, AK and slight chance of AA.

I think your mistakes were you betsizing.

[Stealthy]

You simply HAVE to push the rest in here. This is not the nicest of spots but is not a difficult one.

[FGators]

I raise to $25-$27 preflop. Also bet more on turn, but I guess you answered that one yourself. Check/call river. You'll give the green light to two pair hands that want to turn their hand into a bluff a lot of the time. Putting him on a Q is also tough to do.

[aislephive]

Really standard c/f.

[Mossberg]

I am so surprised to see all these responses. It certainly makes me feel a bit better because I went to bed feeling like this was one of the most senseless plays I've made so far at 200NL (I tend to be VERY result oriented though).

I suppose that since I don't know this TAG very well, that he could be bad and fail to raise earlier with two pair. And checking does kinda allow him to rep a Q and potentially take down a whole pot. His line made no sense to me, until I saw his hand.

I'm still pretty confused though - it seems their is a complete split of opinions between c/f / c/c and push.

[aislephive]

He's not calling your $70 turn bet with air. If you check the river he will never "bluff" because there is no hand he can be bluffing here with unless he wants to turn something like two pair into a bluff which is super unlikely. If you think he'll call a shove with two pair then by all means go ahead and do so, but I doubt he would.

[akb]

Your flop and especially your turn bet should have been bigger. But I really only see him making this play with KQ or QJ. All the other hands that have you beat early (higher sets) he probably reraises you on the flop or turn. And if he is sticking it out with something like AQ then he made a mistake but got lucky, so you shouldn't be mad. I'm really curious as to what he had, though.

[$upermad4it]

Why is AQ so unlikely here? If he has AQ/AQs and is a fish, he's calling the reraise - or if he thinks you are aggressive and will reraise the button with any PP, high suited connectors etc, then a call is ok.

[KLJ]

c/f because if he can have AK he can have AQ just as equally...