Stud variance :(

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
Update. Came back and played 2 more hours trying to prove 2+2 philosophy is right. And I just lost almost another 100 big bets to the worst players ever.

???

I'm starting to shake now. And theories of a site's doom switch is now coming to realization.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going through a massive downswing myself. I have all the classic downswing tales to tell but you have already experienced them so I will desist.

You cannot escape the downswings just as you cannot escape the upswings. If you can beat the game you are sitting in and it sounds that you can then stay there. Do not play lower unless you have less than 300bb for the game you are in. Do not play something else. Do not switch site. You cannot escape the downswing. If a roulette player is to lose five consecutive bets then it does not matter if he makes all five bets during one lazy afternoon or if he places one bet a year for five years. You will just have to grin and bear it, just like you do during an upswing.

Here is to hoping our fortunes improve...

[Al Mirpuri]

Important exception to my 'don't move tables' advice: if you find a softer game then play it...

[Red_Diamond]

Ok, after shutting everything down, again, then spending a fair bit today re-reading Advanced Stud7 etc, to see if I'm doing anyting possibly wrong (aside from not slowplaying my rolled up hands), I decided to get back into the game.

I LOST ANOTHER HUNDRED BIG BETS AGAIN!!!

This to the same donkey who has 100% vpip and even re-raises my re-raise with a pair of deuces when I have a paired door card and obvious trip kings.

If I am playing this wrong, please, someone explain to me what I am supposed to do. I THINK I'm following the Ray Zee system right. I just can't understand what is going on the last few days.

I'm at the point where I am feeling too scared to even raise with rolled-ups, after losing just about all of them this week. I think if I lose another grand the next few days I'm going to retire for good. I just can't handle these ludicrous swings which have no end in sight.

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, after shutting everything down, again, then spending a fair bit today re-reading Advanced Stud7 etc, to see if I'm doing anyting possibly wrong (aside from not slowplaying my rolled up hands), I decided to get back into the game.

I LOST ANOTHER HUNDRED BIG BETS AGAIN!!!

This to the same donkey who has 100% vpip and even re-raises my re-raise with a pair of deuces when I have a paired door card and obvious trip kings.

If I am playing this wrong, please, someone explain to me what I am supposed to do. I THINK I'm following the Ray Zee system right. I just can't understand what is going on the last few days.

I'm at the point where I am feeling too scared to even raise with rolled-ups, after losing just about all of them this week. I think if I lose another grand the next few days I'm going to retire for good. I just can't handle these ludicrous swings which have no end in sight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I found an even softer game and had a winning session, the first in a long time. However, unless you find a softer game you are just going to have to play through it. Variance cannot be escaped from. This is why the pros write books as the income derived from the books makes them less vulnerable to variance. Keep playing. I started a thread called 'Analysis of a Seven Stud Downswing' or such and I got a load of are you sure you are not tilting posts...very annoying. At least, you have not had any of those.

[Red_Diamond]

Well I definitely know I'm not playing too lose. I mean, some of these guys are seeing EVERY hand, no matter how many re-raises they have to cold-call with a non-suited & non-connected or paired hand!

Maybe I could tweak my own vpip a bit, but I do know the difference between drawing live and not. And yes, I will fold kings even when I know I have the best hand if I see my king and kicker is already out and the pot will be multi-way. So I know i'm not CHASING or pushing too much here.

Bring-in is 1/2 of the bet value. And the ante is 1/2 of the Bring-in. I suppose that counts as a high ante-game. What the standard vpip should be for this structure I admit I do not know. But I do try to play according to how fair my hand holds to what I observe showing.

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
lost almost another 100 big bets

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but based on this and your other posts, I would guess you are probably playing losing poker.

Jeff

[Red_Diamond]

Alright. After investing some hours today, I finally was able to win some big-bets this Saturday evening. But the hands I actually made money on I technically played wrong according to the books.

In one case I had rolled up queens. Now I know fair well from SSII that you SHOULD limp and entice other people into the pot. I also know you should never re-raise a raise, especially not a DOUBLE raise as it makes everyone know you have trips obvious. Well, I 3-bet in stud with a queen showing despite a K and A were already raising and re-raising first-street in front of me. And if that seems wrong, let me tell you that I even got 4-bet by a guy behind me with an 8 as his door O_o. Anyhow, by a pure miracle I ended up winning that pot which is the first real pot I have won since this downswing started.

A few hands later, I won this hand (to be posted below), though I feel I may have made a mistake not sure. I have posted the history below. I apologize that Freddf’s board cards don’t show up in the history but I don’t have control over that. I’ll just say that he never paired his board the entire way.

My kings are live and I raised, though it really doesn’t seem to thin out the field much at these stakes. Yes, I am at 1-2 and I simply can’t drop any lower on this network. Burger’s call is meaningless to me. He is 76% vpip, and even called my 3-betting cold with a rag hand a few hands earlier. He also will cap third street if he has a 3-flush, even if 6 other players all share the same suit of his O_o. In other words, just another donkey, and while he has been contributing a bit of chips to everyone, he also has been getting extremely lucky too.

Freddf’s re-raise is a bit worrisome. He is also very loose, and even if he knew I had 2 kings he would still call with 2-6-A rainbow regardless. But I don’t think he’d raise with just ace high. So I decided to put him on split aces. At this point, when the action gets back to me, now what?

I suppose some will say fold because you are up against a higher pair and even if I hit 2-pair I can still easily lose. And some may say there is enough money in the pot to make chasing worth while, as I can see his board and get away early if his board pairs.

I decided to peel off a card as my kings in particular were live (I always try to keep myself live when playing hands). Here I hit 2-pair so decided to check-raise and possibly knock out the donkey between us. Unfortunately he decided to keep chasing… yes it’s his nature. But at least I am getting more money into the pot with him between us. While I will lose a fair amount of time against the aces, I still can show a nice profit here IMHO by the donkey’s money even if I don’t win that many times, just because of the ROI.

If I really played bad here, I’d like to know. Anyhow, now that I finally got a few big bets today, I decided to put a stop to things. Ohh I understand that stop-loss ideas are a sham, but I’m going to stop for psychological reasons. If I end up just losing whatever big bets I made today back to the donkeys again, my nerves won’t be able to take it.

So…. At least for NOW my down-streak has paused.


Game #3172711523: 7 Card FL ($1/$2) - 2007/02/17 - 19:40:05 (DST)
Table "Abilen"
Seat 1: Vinc25032 ($30.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Krustyman ($23 in chips)
Seat 3: Manace ($39 in chips)
Seat 4: R_Diamond ($125 in chips)
Seat 5: Burger005 ($25.75 in chips)
Seat 6: freddyf ($28.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Veda10022 ($82 in chips)
Seat 8: Del-UK ($24 in chips)
freddyf: posts the ante $0.25
Del-UK: posts the ante $0.25
Manace: posts the ante $0.25
R_Diamond: posts the ante $0.25
Vinc25032: posts the ante $0.25
Krustyman: posts the ante $0.25
Veda10022: posts the ante $0.25
Burger005: posts the ante $0.25
----- 3rd STREET -----
dealt to Vinc25032 [6c]
dealt to Krustyman [Jd]
dealt to Manace [6d]
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd]
dealt to Burger005 [Js]
dealt to freddyf [Ad]
dealt to Veda10022 [Jh]
dealt to Del-UK [2s]
Del-UK: brings-in $0.50
Vinc25032: folds
Krustyman: folds
Manace: calls $0.50
R_Diamond: raises $1
Burger005: calls $1
freddyf: raises $2
Veda10022: folds
Del-UK: folds
Manace: folds
R_Diamond: calls $1
Burger005: calls $1
----- 4th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd][5h]
dealt to Burger005 [Js][8d]
dealt to freddyf [Ad][Qh]
freddyf: bets $1
R_Diamond: raises $2
Burger005: calls $2
freddyf: calls $1
----- 5th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h][8c]
dealt to Burger005 [Js 8d][2h]
dealt to freddyf [Ad Qh][4s]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
Burger005: calls $2
freddyf: calls $2
----- 6th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h 8c][Qs]
dealt to Burger005 [Js 8d 2h][3h]
dealt to freddyf [Ad Qh 4s][Jc]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
Burger005: folds
freddyf: calls $2
----- RIVER -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h 8c Qs][4h]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
freddyf: folds
Returned uncalled bets $2 to R_Diamond
R_Diamond: doesn't show hand
R_Diamond collected $23.75 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $25 Main pot $23.75 Rake $1.25
Seat 1: Vinc25032 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Krustyman folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Manace folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: R_Diamond collected $23.75
Seat 5: Burger005 folded on the 6th Street
Seat 6: freddyf folded on the River
Seat 7: Veda10022 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Del-UK folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
****HAND ENDS****

[The Worm]

First, no one ever puts you on rolled trips because they are so rare. So jamming early isnt necessarily bad, and books dont take into account action around you. They may seem cut and dry as far as limping, and waiting for big bet to raise etc, but its not that easy.

If I act early, then I will limp usually.

If I act late and there are 2-3 limpers, I will complete and try and build a big pot and tie people to it.

If someone raises early and gets at least one more caller, I will reraise to build the pot.

Far too many people slow play rolled trips, when it is correct to raise and build a pot. This will also cause other players to make mistakes like bricking a 3 flush on 4th street, but continuing to call because they have invested a decent amount.

My take is to build the pot up early and make people chase crappy draws, or with small pairs.

If you dont raise early, by 5th when you decide to try a reraise, no one has really anything invested and they might just fold without having put more than 1BB in.

Also when Im running bad, I jam away. This way I have no excuse for losing and it gets my confidence up even if its a small pot. A pot won, is a pot won.

[Poker CPA]

Mr Diamond what exactly do you want from the Forum??? Down swings can last 30,000 hands. You lose and win from the fish, and hope to break even with the solid players. From the sound of it you don't know the difference between the solid players and fish. You sound confused and appear to be a fish, who just doesn't know it yet. What are your stats?

[ill rich]

if everyone plays every hand against you, you will make alot of money.