3/6 stud/8 - 5th st trainwreck

[SweetLuckyMe]

[ QUOTE ]
why fold out the dead money, that is where all the profit is?

[/ QUOTE ] OK, so you call and all 3 of you go to 6th - you hit your boat on 7th, and the other guy backdoors a low. Wham, half the pot is gone.

Will your raise surely fold anyone out? No, but there's a chance, and a quite reasonable chance, I think, the way the hand went down. In the grand scheme of winrates, letting "dead money" hang around by encouraging calls isn't the way to maximize profit. Think in terms of pots, not bets.

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why fold out the dead money, that is where all the profit is?

[/ QUOTE ] OK, so you call and all 3 of you go to 6th - you hit your boat on 7th, and the other guy backdoors a low. Wham, half the pot is gone.

Will your raise surely fold anyone out? No, but there's a chance, and a quite reasonable chance, I think, the way the hand went down. In the grand scheme of winrates, letting "dead money" hang around by encouraging calls isn't the way to maximize profit. Think in terms of pots, not bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your line of thinking--it's important to attack the low draws, but a raise on 5th, with its dinked 4, screams "High!" and probably won't drop them. Might be better to wait for a low card on 6th and try to pound away at the lows then. It's good to drop the lows when you have a high hand, but it's doubly important here with hero's runner-runner low draw if his high is no good.

I think this hand may have turned out bad for Hero, hence the post, but if he is going to play on 3rd, I can't think of two better cards than what he received on 4th and 5th. I wouldn't have vomitted, i would have done a little dance on 5th street.

[RubbishCards]

I would have done a dance on 5th street if it wasn't for my opponents' boards and the action from them. The rest of the action:
I call, AA folds, which was a pleasant surprise.
6th: I catch a 6, villain catches an offsuit 7. I check call.
7th: I brick, check call.

[TMTTR]

This is a 100% call on fifth. No other option is realistic against two unknowns. The 8s could have been looking low and is raising his scary spades when a brick hits 5th to get rid of you and your paired board.

I believe hero is already ahead on 5th somewhere around 50% of the time here with a backdoor low draw (more than 15%) and redraws to a winning high hand if behind.