[noobpost] how I learned to love my downswings

[martybonus]

All the usual caveats apply here. Especially the 'I'm addressing the noobs, not the experienced players who already know this and will get cross if they think I'm being out of line and telling them what to do.'

Additionally, I'm writing this under the assumption that it's not been covered better and in more detail elsewhere. I've only read 2 poker books so this might not be the case, so please delete this if it's hackneyed or perhaps 'vapid and empty'...wheres Unter when you need him?

This post is aimed at n00bs like myself who go on downswings and get distressed. It's been on my mind.

[tangent]
I've settled into the uneasy role of 'guy who makes lots of stupid mistakes and n00bs posts, compounds his stupidity by posting here, and gets reamed for it.' I've grown to like it. By posting my idiot errors, others don't have to. Think of my like your well-wishing grandmother who prays for your sinful, heretical soul in the hope that her atonement will pay for your naughty behavour. That's right. I'm your grandma. In keeping with this precedent, here's a post about downswings.
[/tangent]

Downswings are good. This is because unlike winning streaks, they reveal that you are less than perfect at poker.

I think of it like this: if you played perfect poker and every single one of your decisions was correct, all of your winnings would be due to skill and all of your losses due to cards alone. If you played perfect poker, you'd only lose money when the cards didn't treat you nicely. You'd win money by making 100% correct decisions at all times and you'd only lose money when the cards didn't work out (e.g., you made a correct fold). 100% of your winnings are skill, 100% of your losses are bad luck. This is all standard stuff, basic info.

But of course, nobody plays perfect poker. This is a gross oversimplification, but let's say that 50% of the choices made by new players are correct. If you're a 2+2 noob, maybe let's be generous and say 75% choices made are correct.

The implication is that when you win money, 25% of it (again, an oversimplification) is due to chance. That is, 25% of your choices are incorrect and you still make money from them.

The trouble is that when you're winning, you don't even notice that you're making 25% incorrect decisions. Say you're up 10BB in 100 hands. 2.5BB is due to luck alone! In other words, you didn't earn that 2.5BB from skill, you just got lucky. I might even humbly submit that the 2.5BB shouldn't even be consisdered winnings.

Still standard, uncontroversial stuff.

This leads me to my point. Slowly, as is my way.

Downswings, unlike winning sessions, do *not* reward you errors. That 2.5BB (from above) is no longer getting handed to you on a silver platter. You're losing 25% of your roll cos your mistakes are no longer being rewarded. In short, winning rewards your bad play, downswings removes this reward and sometimes punishes you for it. Reward and punishment, the backbone of learning.

This is a good thing.

Downswings show you that you make mistakes. They're 'tough love.' Embrace them. Most importantly, learn from them. Crack open SSHE (or if you think you're hot fecal matter, HFAP) and re-read it from scratch. Forget everything you thought you knew and read it cover to cover.

Moral of the story: If you're on a downswing, it's definitely partly you. So learn from it.

yeah, I'm arguably the worst player on this forum. But I'd rather be a rubbish player who is decent at eating humble pie and learning from my mistakes and downswings than a great player who thinks every downswing is 'just the cards.'

Bring on the pain.

[nerdking]

seriously, man. grow some self-esteem. you're here. you're writing good posts. you're trying to learn to be a better player.

confidence. spine. get yer [censored] head up.

nice post.

[seano34]

Yeah dude - I enjoy your posts and you clearly have a passion for the game, but you need to stop the self-deprecating stuff. Lighten up!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img])

I am willing to bet you probably arent the worst poker player ever anyway, or even on this forum.

[martybonus]

awwwww. :-D


spose i was laying it on a bit thick. i like to think of it as a reminder, not necessarily self abasement. hehe acting like i'm some kind of tragically misunderstood teenager or something.

well, hope other new folks find it somewhat helpful.

[Poker Plan]

Nice post.

Good players are self-critical (within reason)

Bad players are criticial of others (for some [censored]*d up reason they want their opponents to play better)

I would say most downswings are like a vortex. They start off via some external force and then fuel themselves.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post.

Good players are self-critical (within reason)

Bad players are criticial of others (for some [censored]*d up reason they want their opponents to play better)

I would say most downswings are like a vortex. They start off via some external force and then fuel themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

PPlan, you weren't playing 3/6 last night were you? I was at more than one site so I can't remember which one I saw a similar name.

"Bad players are criticial of others (for some [censored]*d up reason they want their opponents to play better)"

Another side effect these morans (QFT) create when they talk crap at the fishies is the make me play better against them because I want to recoup the money from them that they are costing me by driving out the easy money. Is there anything more satisfying than destroying a jerk who thinks they're great at poker? I submit that there is not.

[Bona]

[ QUOTE ]


I would say most downswings are like a vortex. They start off via some external force and then fuel themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said, QFT candidate!!

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
seriously, man. grow some self-esteem. you're here. you're writing good posts. you're trying to learn to be a better player.

confidence. spine. get yer [censored] head up.

nice post.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think marty just doesn't take himself too seriously, which is a good thing. Like me, he has no problem making fun of himself because he doesn't actually believe all the terrible things he says about himself.

Marty: Nice pot. I like the message. Even I picked up something from it. I also enjoyed the laborious way you said "hot sh**."

Well done sir.

[MrWookie]

This is a good post, but I must say one thing. You can't say that 25% of your decisions account for 2.5 BB out of 10 BB of winnings. Usually, the most difficult 25% of decisions are relatively small one. The EV of the correct decision and the most obvious alternative are not that different, certainly small compared to the difference between raising the nuts and folding the nuts.

Really, learning to quantify the magnitude of your mistakes is a great exercise in learning EV, equity, etc. toward becoming a better poker player. I encourage you to try to quantify the exact value of some mistakes, either as replies to threads or in a new essay.

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
Really, learning to quantify the magnitude of your mistakes is a great exercise in learning EV, equity, etc. toward becoming a better poker player. I encourage you to try to quantify the exact value of some mistakes, either as replies to threads or in a new essay

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I understand what you're saying, but I'm not sure. Would it be possible for you to elaborate on that bro?