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#22
02-07-2007, 05:59 PM
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Re: The Well: B00T
Polish middle is the opposite of hitting a good middle where you win both bets. You lose both of them.
Say I have the Jets -3.5 at one site and the Dolphins +2.5 at another site. If the Jets win by 3, I lose both bets. This is ordinarily awful to take. If you are getting the odds of lets say Jets -3.5 +180 and Dolphins -2.5 +100, thats an 80c arb and an expected return of ~$400 guaranteed profit on a $1000 bet on each side. So you are risking 2k to win $400, or a 20% ROI for that particular bet. Are the Jets going to win by exactly 3 more than 1 in 5 times? What if the bets were +300 and +100. If you are getting paid 20-1 on a 4-1 occurance you should take it no matter what provided you are not crippiling your bankroll. There comes a point where all of these become +EV at one point. My theory or hint is, people aren't taking these nearly as often as they should. Edit: the Jets example sucks I edited the numbers. Like I said I am bad at explaning things outloud and threw this example quickly. Sorry. 
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#24
02-07-2007, 06:05 PM
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Re: The Well: B00T
If you were to tutor a friend who doesn´t know sports betting from a hole in the ground. How would you go about to make him a winning bettor?
He´s no fool and is willing to put in plenty of time and energy to learn and make it work. Do you ever bet soccer? Being european I don´t know a thing about football, not much about hoops and baseball is a [censored] mystery.
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#25
02-07-2007, 06:11 PM
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Re: The Well: B00T
I have already done this with my best friend in real life. He was strapped for cash and struggling trying to put together his wedding. I had him come over one day and I showed him exactly what I was doing step-by-step and explained the process to him.
The information is out there and people like Homer take a lot of their time to go out of their way to help people out on these forums. If I were just starting out I would try and read as much as I can from these boards and other sources to fully understand what is actually going on. I have bet soccer briefly but not strong enough to do it on my own. I have blindly bet some arbs that others have given me and did fairly well during the World Cup. For an American, much like you looking at football it's hard for someone unfamiliar with soccer to get too involved in it. It is especially difficult with no soccer intelligence to try and find some "overlays" when it comes to certain outcomes. For example, I have no idea how likely a draw is, or the shootout rules in certain events to determine a lot of profitable stances.
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#26
02-07-2007, 06:12 PM
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Re: The Well: B00T
I know nothing about arbs and scalping. I am in Canada so I have access to Pinny still.
I also have an account at the Greek, those are my only 2 places right now. Can you give me an example or an arb or a scalp using the 2 sites (hopefully with NHL if you can as that is what I undertstand the most).
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#28
02-07-2007, 06:20 PM
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Re: The Well: B00T
OK assuming the OT counts or doesn't count in each bet but are the same, say both sites include Overtime and aren't regulation only.
Say the Greek has the Devils at -110 and Pinnacle has the Rangers at +115 for the full game moneylines. I would bet $2000 at the Greek on the Devils win $1818.18 if the Devils win and lose $2000 if they lose. At Pinnacle, I would risk $1775.90 on the Rangers. If they win I win $2042.28 and lose the $1775.90. So if the Devils win the game, I win the Greek bet and win $1818.18 and lose the Pinnacle bet on the Rangers of $1775.90 for a ~$42 profit. If the Rangers win I lose $2000 at Greek on the Devils, but I win $2042.28 on the Rangers for a ~$42 profit. So regardless of which team wins, I booked a $42 profit. Thats the basic principle of scalping a game. There are plenty of resources out there that explain it in further detail. The FAQ here has some great info for starters.
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