bellagio 10-20 deep: trips facing river crai

[BobboFitos]

hey mike, did you get any physical readfrom him?


JJ sure looks somewhat likely, but so could alot of things that he picked up then missed (ala 67d/XXd...) if you think he's capable of making this with an 8 as well i dont see how you could call... if its boat or bluff I would call.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
unless he's really good and knows you are a nit - everyone else seems to know.

[/ QUOTE ]
ARGHHH I AM NOT A NITTTTT 0SOD8UKH MCRETRHFGNHBMADSFDFHGJHKJL.

[/ QUOTE ]

come on.....yes u are

[luegofuego]

how is this interesting or tough? hes got u 9/10.

[MDMA]

He thinks you have trips as you say, and if they are splashing around knowingly, I wouldn't except him to except you to fold pretty much 8x against him here all too often, even with deeper stacks. Sure, it could be an elaborate bluff with some 67dd that is hoping you can get away anyway, but people generally do not try to represent one hand only, especially not with a "splashy" image against what they feel is a strong hand (trips) for their opponent. They know people tend to talk themselves into a call when a situation as that occurs. I really do think we see JJ here more than anything else.

[samuraj]

Sorry m8, the guy (who is a friend) bluffed u, he was empty but knew u would fold the 8 he knew u had. U were out played.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]

this was from a few mornings ago, couple of swedish guys in the game are providing the action. i think they're pretty good players, they're just splashing around a lot. anyway, the most active one opens utg to 100, i call with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], button and a blind call also.

flop is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. utg pots it for 400. he's very capable of having AK or 77 here, and we have about 7500 behind, so i call.

turn is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. he checks to me, i think for a bit and bet 600, he calls quickly.

river is a J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. he checks again, i bet 1k, he instantly announces all-in. it's about 5400 more to me. call or fold, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

The key to this hand is why, if he had a boat and knew you had trips, wouldnt he put more money in on the turn, why would he call your underbet quickly without thinking about raising. You have to put him on JJ to fold here imho.

-JP

[raptor517]

i need river timing to be sure.. but id prolly call pretty quick.

[Dale Dough]

Blah blah blah what the other posters said.

Also,
[ QUOTE ]
a good player probly doesn't pay me off with QQ-AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm a bad player then.

Final verdict: I'd wuss out and fold, because it's such a weird bluff. Either air or one hand, JJ. You'd think he'd pick a better spot. I can see myself floating with a lot of hands that don't contain an eight there, but aren't complete air either, and would be pretty content to check down that river. It's a sick bluff, but for his turn call to be profitable, he needs to win enough times with that bluff, and maybe make his draw and have it be good enough times and get paid. And you can't boat up on the river, somehow already have it (you could slowplay despite the big stacks because you read him as weak), or call anyway with an eight.

That's a whole lot of ifs, and I think he got pretty lucky here if he did have nothing. It definitely doesn't warrant his friend making an arrogant post about it IMO.

Then again, the only hand that makes sense is, well, one hand, and bluffs often do look like weird desperation kind of moves. So I might talk myself into a call anyway the more I think of it. Still, I don't like his line, and you got off pretty cheap. Hope you eventually did pick him off..

(The same lot of ifs logic applies to justify him having 55 or 33, representing the bluff that represents JJ, hoping you'd think he's FOS enough of the time)

[BobboFitos]

alot of ppl are saying this is JJ or nothing, which if that is the case, its a pretty routine payoff. (what i said initially) the thing is if villain himself can c/r for value with a wider range, it has to be a fold.. mike doesnt have good trips..

why is this not J8, A8, etc etc..

[hoppscot22]

Folding just doesnt really make sense to me... the hand is too awkwardly played (well played if he has you beat) for me to get away from it.
I agree with raptor that i would more then likely call and i would expect to win this pot at least 4/10 times probably more like 6/10 the way it was played