Hurray for Hand Reading

[SossMan]

55 for player A.

Player B should call with a hand that beats 55.

Stunning analysis is in my head, but no time to type it out, sry.

[Stumpy]

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in rhythym.

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I think one too many Y's actually. (I thought both until I looked it up.)

Ansky, you think a lot of people are capable of shoving the river without at least an A? It seems like a terrible card to bluff on, but a good card for a 'bluff' shove with a big hand.

The board has no draws, and I don't see B calling the c/r on the flop without something. Both have like 1 PSB left on the turn, doesn't seem like a good place to float a straight-forward opponent.

I can't see A shoving or B calling with less than Ax. I also think A has a huge hand pretty often so I wouldn't like calling with Ax.


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this has a high chance of being some weird go stop go superbluff

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Adanthar, please define high for me? I can't think of many hands period, let alone bluffs that would play this way. The obvious one would be making a FH on the turn, and hoping the guy caught up on the A river. But that's a pretty rare event.

[NoahSD]

MLG, thanks for posting something interesting.

No matter what player A has, he played it oddly. I really only like his play with 55/22, since his line is begging B to shove. AQ should be discounted because of preflop + flop, but still very possible. I guess he could have KQ and be shoving river as a chop block, but it's a stretch to think he plays all 4 streets like this with KQ.

This could be a bluff, but it's a bit weird for someone to take this line as a bluff because they get uncomfortable checking the turn and then bluffing the river.

B pretty much always has Qx (including AQ) or KK/AA. Without doing the math, I'd guess that calling with AQ/AA is unexploitable, and probably correct too, so go with that.

I could be way off, though. I find it hard to think about poker hands without knowing at least one guy's cards for whatever reason.

[Ansky]

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I think 'B' could have any 2 broadway cards which include a Q or a weak Ace. I think 'A' has a weak ace, maybe something like A5. On the River bet, 'A' could be thinking that if they both have weak aces, it's going to be chop and with his all-in he can steal the whole pot.

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this makes no sense, why would the bb think the button can have an ace like ever?

[Ansky]

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Ansky, you think a lot of people are capable of shoving the river without at least an A? It seems like a terrible card to bluff on, but a good card for a 'bluff' shove with a big hand.

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no.

Most standard 100r donkamenters are capable of bluffs, but not thin value bets. It's like the unexplored frontier.

[Ansky]

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55 for player A.

Player B should call with a hand that beats 55.

Stunning analysis is in my head, but no time to type it out, sry.

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While it would be a good way to play 55, people just don't get tricky in the right ways, so I doubt bb has 55 here.

[Ansky]

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B pretty much always has Qx (including AQ) or KK/AA. Without doing the math, I'd guess that calling with AQ/AA is unexploitable, and probably correct too, so go with that.

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what? So calling with 2 hands which are basically the nuts is inexploitable? no kidding.

I dont really get what you are trying to say.

[Ansky]

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btw of course because you posted it, this has a high chance of being some weird go stop go superbluff [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] it's just not a very good one because people hate folding an ace in this spot.

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There is a very small chance that the button has a lone ace so who cares?

If he has an ace, chances are it is AQ.

[Ansky]

People love bluffing this flop cause its dry and chances are button doesnt have anything anyways, and then typically they shut down on a deuce turn. Nothing has changed hand wise, and the button obv has a hand if he is calling the flop c/r and his hand only got better with the deuce.

The river reopens the possibility of bluff in the bb's mind because the ace is an obvious scare card... since bb can have an ace but button obviously can't. It's an ok spot for a bluff by bb versus most players, but not cleverer ones, although that depends on what level you are on w/ them and how likely you are to have a monster/thin value bet with an ace.

[FortunaMaximus]

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Stars 100r, Player A is in the BB with 17k with blinds 200/400. It folds to Player B on the button who has A slightly covered and makes it 1200 to go. obv. A calls and they go HU to a Q52r flop. A checks and B makes the standard 1800 bet. A now crs to 5500. B quickly calls. Turn pairs the 2 and the action goes check check. The river is an A, and now player A jams for his last 11k.


Lets have some ranges for both players, and player B's calling range on the river.



Also, reads:
Player A has showed down two hands in the short time the two players have been together. He doubled to over 20k with AA v KK, which he played in a straight forward manner. Then he called off getting roughly 1.7:1 with QJ, and ended up losing to a shortish stacks A7o.

Player B has shown down zero hands in the time the players have been together. He doesnt give off the impression that he's getting out of line, or that he overly abuses position. He has played a couple of hands though that havent gone past the flop, so he doesnt give off the impression of being a nit either. This is their first button v blind confrontation.


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A should have 66-JJ a fair % of the time here, sometimes a Qx. On such a dry board, it'd be an unorthodox way to play a flopped set, and HU, you'd see a c/c, lead (shove) turn line more, no?

Some Ax hands got there, but that'd basically mean he was on a flop c/r semi. Depends on if a deeper read has an opponent capable of taking this off-standard line... Maybe yes, maybe no. Just about deep enough to pull it off, but you figure he'd have repopped some of the above mentioned range PF. I figure a range that'd not repop PF would be a bit more likely to try to move on flop, the pairs...

You have to figure he's putting it in with Qx hands here. Seems inconsistent with read and a paired board that he would not do that with his Qx hands.

So that leads ya to river, I suppose, and B should be calling wide, all his Ax hands, Qx hands, probably 99-JJ.

There might be a very small probability that either A or B has KK+, but since there's a question on river of whether B should call... AA's out of his range, and he still should be calling with the above mentioned range, and pay off sets and Qx.

Gut says that this isn't 55 or AA often enough that it's +cEV for B to call with a range of Ax, Qx, 99-JJ, KK here.

Interesting scenario.

Edited to remove inconsistent statenemt.