Play along with me

[W. Deranged]

I'm having a hard time thinking of a reason to get aggressive at all on this flop. I was originally thinking check-raise, but I have a hard time justifying that.

If the capper's range is AA, KK, QQ, AKs, then we are 6 to 6 to be ahead, or dead even; if we throw in all AK, we're 6 to 12 to be behind. If we throw in JJ we are 12 to 12 to be behind, or dead even.

In no situation are we a favorite to be beating the pre-flop capper, and our equity is probably something like 40% against him alone on average. When we consider the pre-flop three-bettor also has close to a similar range, we're talking something like 16-20% to be ahead of those two opponents. (Note that the pre-flop three-bettor may be MORE likely to be beating us than the capper as AQs may be more likely to be in her hand than the capper's). Our Js are only outs against a few of the hands that are beating us. As are basically never outs. Runner-runner straight is unlikely.

I also can't think of much to be gained from a bet or a check-raise. Protection seems futile here: A check-raise at best faces our opponents with 23-2. A bet faces them with 21-1. The most we could hope to fold would be another hand that had a backdoor straight draw (either to clean up Js or force out someone splitting the pot with us if we make broadway). Those a very minor fractions, and I highly doubt they add up to the .8-.9 sb we're paying in real terms every small bet we put into this pot.

If we check and the hand checks through, it's unlikely any opponent is drawing to more than 3-4 outs against our hand, and, as mentioned, there are few hands that would fold to any kind of aggressive action on the flop that have any amount of equity against us here (gutshots are calling two cold here correctly anyway). We do lose value, which I hate, but that decision comes down to the equity calculation, and as mentioned, I don't think we have enough equity here to be worrying about missed value as the primary consideration.

So I'm thinking check-call here and pray to get lucky. I just can't see what we gain by getting aggressive.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live. You spy AJo UTG and raise, middle-aged Asian woman who is far too scared to be from CA 3-bets to your immediate left, some donkey coldcalls, a solid playing button coldcaps, BB calls, and it's your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say I brainfart and call along with everyone else.

Now it's 5 ways for 20 SBs. Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks. What do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I bet, UTG+1 (preflop 3-bet) calls, one more call, button raises, BB calls, and now it's back to me. Give me a plan for the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I call as does everyone else. 15 BBs, still 5 players. Turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB checks out. Now what?

[Grease]

To be honest, I don't think that card changed who's ahead and who's behind. You may have moved out of 3rd or 4th place, but I think the button still has us beaten. That is probably the worst card in the deck (since it will compel us to call down now), because we know that the button has at least an A since he capped PF and raised the drawless flop.

I'm going to advocate C/F, but I know no one will actually back me here.

Bet/folding is bad, IMO, since the pot will be monstrous by the time it gets back to us, and folding would be wrong then.

I guess then either C/C or B/C are our best options, but at heart, I know we're crushed at the moment and are drawing to 3 outs. Actually, if we C/C, then the odds to spike a J might be there, since the button has either QQ or AK (AQ is not really something we can count on.) That said, check/call and pray.

I take back my C/F advice.

[sweetjazz]

Turn check/call seems pretty easy here. Button cannot have AA anymore, and he is very likely to have QQ here, which we can outdraw with the case A (though that's admittedly sitting in one of the other 3 hands at least 90% of the time), a J or a 4.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is the A . BB checks out. Now what?


[/ QUOTE ]

Check. Why did you bet the flop? Why did you see the flop?

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live. You spy AJo UTG and raise, middle-aged Asian woman who is far too scared to be from CA 3-bets to your immediate left, some donkey coldcalls, a solid playing button coldcaps, BB calls, and it's your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say I brainfart and call along with everyone else.

Now it's 5 ways for 20 SBs. Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks. What do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I bet, UTG+1 (preflop 3-bet) calls, one more call, button raises, BB calls, and now it's back to me. Give me a plan for the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I call as does everyone else. 15 BBs, still 5 players. Turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB checks out. Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say I brainfart again and bet, UTG+1 calls, fold, button raises, I call and UTG+1 folds.

River is a 4. Do I get to showdown?

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live. You spy AJo UTG and raise, middle-aged Asian woman who is far too scared to be from CA 3-bets to your immediate left, some donkey coldcalls, a solid playing button coldcaps, BB calls, and it's your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say I brainfart and call along with everyone else.

Now it's 5 ways for 20 SBs. Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks. What do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I bet, UTG+1 (preflop 3-bet) calls, one more call, button raises, BB calls, and now it's back to me. Give me a plan for the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I call as does everyone else. 15 BBs, still 5 players. Turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB checks out. Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say I brainfart again and bet, UTG+1 calls, fold, button raises, I call and UTG+1 folds.

River is a 4. Do I get to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a solid playing button wouldn't necessarily cold-cap AQs or AQo, so I think you have to get to showdown. I'd check-call.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live. You spy AJo UTG and raise, middle-aged Asian woman who is far too scared to be from CA 3-bets to your immediate left, some donkey coldcalls, a solid playing button coldcaps, BB calls, and it's your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say I brainfart and call along with everyone else.

Now it's 5 ways for 20 SBs. Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks. What do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I bet, UTG+1 (preflop 3-bet) calls, one more call, button raises, BB calls, and now it's back to me. Give me a plan for the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I call as does everyone else. 15 BBs, still 5 players. Turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB checks out. Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say I brainfart again and bet, UTG+1 calls, fold, button raises, I call and UTG+1 folds.

River is a 4. Do I get to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

River card is a 5. Oops.

[nolanfan34]

I only get to showdown if the button checks here. The way the hand played out, you look like you're committed to showdown here. So if you check, it just seems like with his range, the only hands he still bets are ones that you lose to anyway, AK or QQ. I check-fold probably.

[Grease]

The 4 just helped you to split the pot with the button if he has AK. If he has QQ, you just outdrew him.

I bet the river. He'll probably call with QQ, and if he raises, just call, since the best he can do is chop now.