PCA Bubble Question

[JoseGonzlez]

I would think if you play alot of poker even at usually much lower stakes this is still pretty black and white.

I suppose you can come up with some crazy scenarios like someone who never plays poker and does plan on playing much. In these cases there could be some scenarios where you want to fold but they are pretty extreme.

By any analysis though i think if you going to be playing alot of poker in your lifetime you cant fold here

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think if you play alot of poker even at usually much lower stakes this is still pretty black and white.

I suppose you can come up with some crazy scenarios like someone who never plays poker and does plan on playing much. In these cases there could be some scenarios where you want to fold but they are pretty extreme.

By any analysis though i think if you going to be playing alot of poker in your lifetime you cant fold here

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just silly.

[JoseGonzlez]

whats silly about it?

ive played to move up spots when ive first started it out and ive always regretted it.

8000 bucks and cashing in a major event might seem great right now but i think if you looked back in a month you would somewhat regreat not trying to get as many chips as possible.

[uclabruinz]

This is not "moving up spots." It's a huge jump from $0 to $10k and then it's very very flat all the way to the end. It can be argued, particularly if there were several micro stacks left (which it's safe to assume there probably were) that the benefit of shoving in equity does not outweigh the $0 to $10k jump.

There's playing to win and there's playing stupid, and the line between the two can often be difficult to discern. I don't know in this case if shoving AQ is correct, it depends on a variety of variables that I don't know. But, given the payout structure and individual situations, I certainly wouldn't blame someone for folding, and I don't think it's really -$EV to do so.

[whynot?]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not "moving up spots." It's a huge jump from $0 to $10k and then it's very very flat all the way to the end. It can be argued, particularly if there were several micro stacks left (which it's safe to assume there probably were) that the benefit of shoving in equity does not outweigh the $0 to $10k jump.

There's playing to win and there's playing stupid, and the line between the two can often be difficult to discern. I don't know in this case if shoving AQ is correct, it depends on a variety of variables that I don't know. But, given the payout structure and individual situations, I certainly wouldn't blame someone for folding, and I don't think

it's really -$EV to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

AMEN - I'd need to know the microstacks counts etc but I cant see pushing is EV+ that first step is huge and the extra 20% in chips does not significantly increase your chances of getting to the real money.

[registrar]

The issue to be addressed is whether the $EV of folding into the money, which seems to be more or less guaranteed with this stack, is greater than the $EV of pushing AQo from the CO into these stacks to double a small stack to a half average stack with 180 left to go on a very flat payout structure. And, when I put it like that, I'm not so sure I like pushing AQo as much.

I can't remember the payouts but doubling here, if the average stack is 100k, is not going to give us a significantly greater expectation of reaching FT. $10k is a lot of money. Not black and white.

[whynot?]

well put

[BlueEcho]

[ QUOTE ]

8000 bucks and cashing in a major event might seem great right now but i think if you looked back in a month you would somewhat regreat not trying to get as many chips as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree here, however I have recently busted on the bubble in live events trying to play with this method in mind and the opposite of your agruement is also true. I am left regretting having opened pushed my hand because now I'm watching the tournament.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not "moving up spots." It's a huge jump from $0 to $10k and then it's very very flat all the way to the end. It can be argued, particularly if there were several micro stacks left (which it's safe to assume there probably were) that the benefit of shoving in equity does not outweigh the $0 to $10k jump.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the payout structure:


1: $1,535,255
2: $861,789
3: $550,980
4: $409,703
5: $317,873
6: $247,234
7: $187,192
8: $151,873
9: $123,617
10: $98,894
11: $77,702
12: $59,336
13-16: $45,915
17-20: $36,026
21-25: $28,255
26-30: $21,898
31-50: $17,787
51-80: $14,128
81-130: $11,797
131-180: $9,889

I agree that this is not an "and its not even close" situation.

If I have the time I will do some math, but this spot looks like it could be +TEV and -$EV due mostly to the uber flat structure.

I'm not saying I would or woudn't push, I'm just saying this is not a clear cut situation, especially with BB having 80BBs and being very good.

Regards,
Woodguy

[registrar]

However, in OP's shoes then, I would have pushed. And in OP's shoes now, I'd rather be hearing that it's not even close.