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#1
01-22-2007, 09:40 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
This is as good of a place as anywhere to post this:
183 left in the PCA (180 paid, 181 was OP). Blinds 1200/2400 - 300. Notorious nit Tom McEvoy moves all in UTG for 22000. 3-4 orbits he moved all in UTG for 11000-ish (probably in the 1000/2000 level, but I forget) with 66 and doubled through a hand I forget. Folds to you in the hijack with 27000. You look down at 77. WHAT IS YOUR PLAY? 
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#2
01-22-2007, 09:42 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
Fold those sevens so you can have money to buy a new hat.
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#3
01-22-2007, 09:47 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
This is as good of a place as anywhere to post this: 183 left in the PCA (180 paid, 181 was OP). Blinds 1200/2400 - 300. Notorious nit Tom McEvoy moves all in UTG for 22000. 3-4 orbits he moved all in UTG for 11000-ish (probably in the 1000/2000 level, but I forget) with 66 and doubled through a hand I forget. Folds to you in the hijack with 27000. You look down at 77. WHAT IS YOUR PLAY? [/ QUOTE ] I have no idea how bad he is, but when I was reading the post, I expected you to have like TT, I think 77 is an easy fold.
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#4
01-22-2007, 09:46 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
seriously in 10 years if you played weak tight on the bubble and squeaked into the money you might/slash should regret it more.
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#5
01-23-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
Last year a friend of mine bubbled. He was not a sophisticated player, and plays in a local club in arkansas for points. Somehow, he won the 33r on a single buyin and went to the PCA. He had 80K (about 50XBB) in chips around the bubble, and had aj on an AAx board. He led 28K on the flop and pushed the turn, going out against the only bigger stack w/ aq. Probably a day doesn't go by when he doesn't wish he could take it back. I played at least 5 hands last year which I would give anything to take back, including 3 10K satellite bubbles. I already have one hand this year I would give anything to take back. Anyhow at some level you must know that a fold there was correct with just about any two. The 100% of a 10K cash far outweighed whatever your odds of improving your cash with twice your short stack. This is true in almost every payout, but is especially true in a flat payout which was particularly true this year. Pushing aqo is a $10K mistake. Unfortunately I have made several of them. While I can empathise with your mistake, don't try and convince yourself than it was $EV+. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mistake(which it wasn't) How could it be a 10k mistake unless 100% of the time he pushes he busts.
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#6
01-23-2007, 01:28 AM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Last year a friend of mine bubbled. He was not a sophisticated player, and plays in a local club in arkansas for points. Somehow, he won the 33r on a single buyin and went to the PCA. He had 80K (about 50XBB) in chips around the bubble, and had aj on an AAx board. He led 28K on the flop and pushed the turn, going out against the only bigger stack w/ aq. Probably a day doesn't go by when he doesn't wish he could take it back. I played at least 5 hands last year which I would give anything to take back, including 3 10K satellite bubbles. I already have one hand this year I would give anything to take back. Anyhow at some level you must know that a fold there was correct with just about any two. The 100% of a 10K cash far outweighed whatever your odds of improving your cash with twice your short stack. This is true in almost every payout, but is especially true in a flat payout which was particularly true this year. Pushing aqo is a $10K mistake. Unfortunately I have made several of them. While I can empathise with your mistake, don't try and convince yourself than it was $EV+. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mistake(which it wasn't) How could it be a 10k mistake unless 100% of the time he pushes he busts. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mispost(which it wasn't) It could be an ~80k mistake if 100% of the time he pushes he busts.
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#7
01-23-2007, 09:43 AM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Last year a friend of mine bubbled. He was not a sophisticated player, and plays in a local club in arkansas for points. Somehow, he won the 33r on a single buyin and went to the PCA. He had 80K (about 50XBB) in chips around the bubble, and had aj on an AAx board. He led 28K on the flop and pushed the turn, going out against the only bigger stack w/ aq. Probably a day doesn't go by when he doesn't wish he could take it back. I played at least 5 hands last year which I would give anything to take back, including 3 10K satellite bubbles. I already have one hand this year I would give anything to take back. Anyhow at some level you must know that a fold there was correct with just about any two. The 100% of a 10K cash far outweighed whatever your odds of improving your cash with twice your short stack. This is true in almost every payout, but is especially true in a flat payout which was particularly true this year. Pushing aqo is a $10K mistake. Unfortunately I have made several of them. While I can empathise with your mistake, don't try and convince yourself than it was $EV+. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mistake(which it wasn't) How could it be a 10k mistake unless 100% of the time he pushes he busts. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mispost(which it wasn't) It could be an ~80k mistake if 100% of the time he pushes he busts. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Plz explain how it could be an 80k mistake unless his equity with 10bbs once he gets ITM is 80k even though that would mean he would need to make roughly finish in the top 10. Also you misread my post, I'll let you figure that out though.
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#8
01-23-2007, 10:05 AM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Last year a friend of mine bubbled. He was not a sophisticated player, and plays in a local club in arkansas for points. Somehow, he won the 33r on a single buyin and went to the PCA. He had 80K (about 50XBB) in chips around the bubble, and had aj on an AAx board. He led 28K on the flop and pushed the turn, going out against the only bigger stack w/ aq. Probably a day doesn't go by when he doesn't wish he could take it back. I played at least 5 hands last year which I would give anything to take back, including 3 10K satellite bubbles. I already have one hand this year I would give anything to take back. Anyhow at some level you must know that a fold there was correct with just about any two. The 100% of a 10K cash far outweighed whatever your odds of improving your cash with twice your short stack. This is true in almost every payout, but is especially true in a flat payout which was particularly true this year. Pushing aqo is a $10K mistake. Unfortunately I have made several of them. While I can empathise with your mistake, don't try and convince yourself than it was $EV+. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mistake(which it wasn't) How could it be a 10k mistake unless 100% of the time he pushes he busts. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong even if it was a mispost(which it wasn't) It could be an ~80k mistake if 100% of the time he pushes he busts. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Plz explain how it could be an 80k mistake unless his equity with 10bbs once he gets ITM is 80k even though that would mean he would need to make roughly finish in the top 10. Also you misread my post, I'll let you figure that out though. [/ QUOTE ] I'm hit21hit on AIM, msg me if you ever go deep in a big tournament.
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#9
01-23-2007, 04:26 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
Last year a friend of mine bubbled. He was not a sophisticated player, and plays in a local club in arkansas for points. Somehow, he won the 33r on a single buyin and went to the PCA. He had 80K (about 50XBB) in chips around the bubble, and had aj on an AAx board. He led 28K on the flop and pushed the turn, going out against the only bigger stack w/ aq. Probably a day doesn't go by when he doesn't wish he could take it back. I played at least 5 hands last year which I would give anything to take back, including 3 10K satellite bubbles. I already have one hand this year I would give anything to take back. Anyhow at some level you must know that a fold there was correct with just about any two. The 100% of a 10K cash far outweighed whatever your odds of improving your cash with twice your short stack. This is true in almost every payout, but is especially true in a flat payout which was particularly true this year. Pushing aqo is a $10K mistake. Unfortunately I have made several of them. While I can empathise with your mistake, don't try and convince yourself than it was $EV+. [/ QUOTE ] Man I almost forgot about this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . I've talked this over with a lot of very good mtters and only one said it MIGHT be a fold with AQ. I feel that since a cash wasn't life changing I should take the route that is the most +ev which seems to be shoving. Also comparing this to a sat is horrible since the pay structure is totally flat and thus the extra chips are worth nothing. As mentioned if this is mistake it's not a 10k mistake. If the button turns over 99 and says hes going to call it is a fold but still not a 10k mistake.
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#10
01-23-2007, 04:51 PM
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Re: The PCA Bubble boy...
[ QUOTE ]
Also comparing this to a sat is horrible since the pay structure is totally flat and thus the extra chips are worth nothing. As mentioned if this is mistake it's not a 10k mistake. If the button turns over 99 and says hes going to call it is a fold but still not a 10k mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, since the pay structure was so amazingly flat, comparing it to a satellite is remarkably appropriate.
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