*** UFC 66 : Official prefight thread ***

[trixtrix]

performify is correct, liddell/tito opened at -220/+200ish, the _ish part was due to the fact that the line floated up and down for a few hours before shifting entirely toward chuck

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, if anyone knows where I can make parlay bets on fight cards, please let me know. Bodog does not seem to allow it.
...

Again, if anyone knows where to parlay, please let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

w/the efficiency at which pinny is able to grade fights on gameday, you can theoretically replicate a synthetic parlay w/out the use of the actual parlay wager option on pinnacle.

for example, you would like to parlay say okami/bisping/arlovski for 3 unit wager, what you would do then is to wager the 3 units entirely on okami (to bet, not to win), who's fighting on the undercard. pinny will usually have undercard fights graded by kickoff time for ppv. so if okami won his bout, pinny would've graded the bet before arlovski's bout started, which you can then rollover the entire amount (3 wagered units+ 1st leg winnings) on arlovski. and assume that leg won as well and pinny can have the fight graded before bisping bout, you can repeat the same process rolling over now the combined sum of your 3 base units + entire winnings from all previous legs on bisping.. and so on

by doing it in this fashion you can also take advantage of the low-vig pinny lines instead of the more heavily juiced lines parlay-allowed books will force you to bet into

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
performify is correct, liddell/tito opened at -220/+200ish, the _ish part was due to the fact that the line floated up and down for a few hours before shifting entirely toward chuck

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man.

[swope]

joey odessa is reporting that ortiz has been *very* sick, and tito blamed his mildly retarded performance against forrest on injuries that by definition cannot possibly be healed by now, even with the aid of roids banned by SAC.

tito is certainly capable of pulling a bad beat out of a hat on chuck, who was on a week long bender a month and a half before the fight, but if he wins thats just what it is; a bad beat.

this isnt 26 year old tito ortiz, this is 31 year old tito ortiz. his 'legendary' cardio hasnt been seen in a long, long time. cote nearly put him on his ass, vitor nearly tko'd him, randy literally spanked him in front of an entire nation. dropping bows on ken shamrock doth not a belt holder make.

i think the reason so much action is going on tito (and a lot has gone on tito in the last 24 hours) is because:

- tito holding the belt would be fantastic for the lhw division
- not only does it set up incredible fights like babalu v tito, it also sets the stage for a rematch against wandy
- chuck is 37 years old and there is still no one left to test him, so if not tito, then who will beat him?
- people just seem to think chuck is 'due' for a loss. and hey, maybe he is. if he does, i wouldnt be shocked in the slightest if he smiled politely into the camera, announced his retirement, curtsied, then cashed his check and spent the weekend doing lines off his girls [censored].

regardless, i think chuck wins this 5 times out of 6, simply because i have no reason to honestly expect tito to turn in the best performance of his entire life.

[BriMc]

[ QUOTE ]
joey odessa is reporting that ortiz has been *very* sick,

[/ QUOTE ]

Link? I checked bettormma and I couldn't find it there, did he post this somewhere else?

[swope]

http://www.bettormma.com/site/module...pic&t=1697

[Performify]

My picks literally just hit the site this second.
http://www.ufcjunkie.com

Here's a summary of my predictions:

Summary of Full Card picks for UFC 66
# Andrei Arlovski -471 : KO rd.1 : no action
# Gabriel Gonzaga -276 : sub rd.1 : 2.76 units to win 1 unit
# Anthony Perosh +141 : sub rd.2 : no action
# Michael Bisping -381 : KO rd.1 : 3.81 units to win 1 unit
# Yushin Okami -421 : TKO rd.3 : 4.21 units to win 1 unit
# Jason MacDonald +191 : sub rd.3 : .52 units to win 1 unit
# Tony DeSouza +126 : sub rd.1 : .25 units to win .315 units
# Forrest Griffin -266 : TKO rd.2 : 2.66 units to win 1 unit
# Tito Ortiz +241 : TKO rd.4 : 1 unit to win 2.41 units

[Performify]

a great article on Ortiz Liddell courtesy the Official UFC 66 thread in the Mod Playground (Fighting Arts Forum, which you should check out if you haven't).

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-ortizqa1218,0,3366285.story?coll=bal-sports-headlines

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
joey odessa is reporting that ortiz has been *very* sick,

[/ QUOTE ]

Link? I checked bettormma and I couldn't find it there, did he post this somewhere else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a lot of detail. I know Jenna was sick a couple weeks before thanksgiving and limited her exposure to Tito at that time because of the illness. Haven't seen or heard anything on Tito being sick and I'm definitely looking at quite a few sources. Perhaps Odessa is getting the report of Jenna being sick interlaced with Tito? Or perhaps not and I just haven't gotten it... either way, yuck.

Oh, i wanted to mention in my writeup but forgot and will do it here. Neat little factoid: Every UFC belt has changed hands in 2006 so far, including the lightweight belt moving from vacant to Sherk. Every belt, except one so far: Light Heavyweight.

If Chuck defends, he stands alone. If not, 2006 is official deemed UFC:Reloaded

[Inthacup]

Performify, I've enjoyed reading your UFC summaries. Keep up the good work. A few thoughts on your summary:

AA vs. Cruz

Cruz certainly can’t stand with AA, but AA is skilled on the ground, with his background in Sambo and his current BJJ training under Dino Costeas. Arlovski also has a significant speed advantage, which is very dangerous to Cruz both on the feet and when the fight goes to the ground.

Cruz's standup is awful. In the Monson fight, he was able to nullify Monson's standup advantage due to his reach. Whenever he threw a punch, Cruz, would leave his chin out, but Monson was too short to reach it. With AA, that won't be an issue as he is as tall or taller than Cruz. There is a significant risk of Cruz getting KO'd before he can get the takedown. Cruz has a distinct advantage on the ground, but I just don't see Cruz taking down AA and controlling him.

A small correction:

you might remember seeing Gonzaga at UFC 59 in November 2005 where he KO’d Kevin Jordan in the end of the first round

Gonzaga KO'd Jordan at the end of the 3rd round with a superman punch. That was a very boring fight due to both fighters gassing in the 1st round. From what I've read, Gonzaga had a loss in the family not long before that fight and was out of character. Marrero did not impress me in the Kongo fight either. His takedowns were solid, but he looked awkward on the ground against a guy with no ground game. His takedown ability somewhat concerns me in this fight due to how strongly the UFC judges weigh takedowns. However, with Gonzaga's bjj background, I just don't see Marrero being able to lay and pray his way to a victory.

Bisping vs. Schafer:

While Schafer isn’t a slouch, he hasn’t fought anyone at Bisping’s level

This comment surprised me. It's not that Schafer has fought great opponents, but Bisping's 'level' is a pretty big question mark for me. His 11 wins have come against TUF opponents and against B and C level fighters in smaller organizations. I think that with his TUF exposure, the line has been pushed to where Schafer is good value.

Cup