NBA Player Props - Page 3

Thremp · #21 12-21-2006, 01:58 AM

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Just out of curiosity, do you think betting overs in NBA props is +EV in the long run?

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It depends. I'm 4 for 5 on overs and have not bet any unders.

Most of my bets are not "handicapping" though a little thought goes into it. I typically find mispriced props and bet them.

Something to keep in mind is that value is swimming against the current. Everyone seems to bet the under nowadays thinking it has value.

thing85 · #22 12-21-2006, 02:01 AM

I know you know this, but 4 out of 5 isn't exactly a large sample size. I agree with your point though.

Thremp · #23 12-21-2006, 02:04 AM

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I know you know this, but 4 out of 5 isn't exactly a large sample size. I agree with your point though.

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No, but I'm sure he'd like to know my results. FWIW I havn't found any value in any of the unders.

alecb · #24 12-21-2006, 02:05 PM

Bah! Another bad night as I was really looking forward to that Suns game that ended up postponed. I'm in the midst of a bit of a losing streak since being 5-2 and +10.6 units, I am now at 6-8 and -15.8 units. I am going to really hunker down and look at the player props tonight as close as possible (though there may not be many because of only 2 games being played).

alecb · #25 12-21-2006, 02:18 PM

Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE) Ov. 21 P+R -110

Remember when Zydrunas was a double-double player every night? In his career, he has averaged 15 points and 8 rebounds a game... and at the start of the season, it seemed he could do no right. Since averaging only 10 points and 8 rebounds in November, his game has dramatically picked up in the past month, specifically most recent games. In the past 6 games, he has gone well over 20 P+R 4 times and more importantly, has seen increased playing time (from 25 minutes in November to over 30 in the past 6 games). I think tonight's home game against the Pistons is a big one for Zydrunas and find a very good value on the over at -110. I envision 34 minutes of playing time leading to 14 points and 10 rebounds.

12 units on over.

fnurt · #26 12-21-2006, 02:56 PM

The Pistons are pretty soft on the inside this year. I like this pick.

dreamcrusha · #27 12-21-2006, 04:03 PM

FYI you can get this bet at a better price individually at Pinny they have Z's points at 11.5 and rebounds at 7.5. This way makes much more sense to me, if I was going to bet 12 units and I used your prediction of 14 points and 10 boards to reduce variance I think it is smarter to bet point and reb individually and get it at 19 total instead of 21. GL anyways!

Thremp · #28 12-21-2006, 04:07 PM

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FYI you can get this bet at a better price individually at Pinny they have Z's points at 11.5 and rebounds at 7.5. This way makes much more sense to me, if I was going to bet 12 units and I used your prediction of 14 points and 10 boards to reduce variance I think it is smarter to bet point and reb individually and get it at 19 total instead of 21. GL anyways!

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Pinny has very high juice on theirs.

silentbob · #29 12-21-2006, 05:40 PM

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Something to keep in mind is that value is swimming against the current. Everyone seems to bet the under nowadays thinking it has value.

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If by everyone you mean 2+2, sure, but I suspect (and someone correct me if this is way off) that the vast majority of squares and rec bettors out there like to take the over.

Thremp · #30 12-21-2006, 08:57 PM

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Something to keep in mind is that value is swimming against the current. Everyone seems to bet the under nowadays thinking it has value.

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If by everyone you mean 2+2, sure, but I suspect (and someone correct me if this is way off) that the vast majority of squares and rec bettors out there like to take the over.

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How liquid do you think these markets are?