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#21
12-15-2006, 03:14 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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IIRC, the Giants were 6-6 when he made that prediction. He said they would run the table and go 10-6, and they did. [/ QUOTE ] "After two back-to-back losses at home against St. Louis and Detroit, the Giants fell to 7-4 and their playoff prospects were in question. In what would be his defining moment as Giants head coach, at a press conference following the Giants' loss to Detroit, Fassel guaranteed that 'This team will be in the playoffs.' The Giants responded, winning the next week's game against Arizona and the rest of their regular season games to finish the season 12-4 and earn a bye as the NFC's top seed." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...er_Bowl_Season 
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#22
12-15-2006, 03:20 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] that's an absurd way to look at it. The fact is, McGuire's prediction was incredibly bold, and he turned out to be right - naturally he's lucky to be right [/ QUOTE ] You're failing, IMO, to differentiate between being "bold" and just making a stupid prediction that you need to be lucky to get right. The advantage of this is that no one bothers to remember all the crazy [censored] you say when it doesn't come through. Here we are years after the fact and OP can remember this "bold prediction" by McGuire. Can he remember all the other low probability predictions that people made that year? Should McGuire get any recognition for being lucky? No. [/ QUOTE ] So a prediction needs to be high probability for someone to be smart about it? Yes, of course it's a kind of selection bias that we only remember one right prediction versus hundreds of wrong predictions. But the nature of prediction is luck - so I don't understand your point. By the same token, Nantz's TB-Oakland prediction is a low percentage prediction that happened to come true. How often has he predicted both the super bowl teams since then?
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#23
12-15-2006, 03:20 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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gotta be sportscaster Paul McGuire predicting the then-best team in the NFL - the streaking 10-1 NY Jets - wouldn't win another game the rest of the 1986 season. They didn't, and finished 10-6, limping into the playoffs, where they lost to the Browns. I remember McGuire stating his case on one of the Sunday pre-game shows and everybody laughed at him. But he stood by his prediction and was proven right. Pretty amazing. Can anybody beat that? [/ QUOTE ] The Jets thumped KC in the wild card game that year, so technically the prediction wasn't actually right.
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#24
12-15-2006, 03:29 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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Don't remember the exact quote, but Jamal Lewis basically predicted he would break the single-game rushing record against the Browns a couple days before he did it back in 2003. [/ QUOTE ] he actually called one of the browns dbs on the phone and told him he would break the record, along with telling the papers and radio.
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#25
12-15-2006, 03:33 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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Players make guarentees all the time, because they know if they are wrong it DOESN'T MATTER IN THE SLIGHTEST. It's a no-lose situation. [/ QUOTE ] This is just wrong. Players rarely make guarantees because if they do it will be used by the other team to psyche its players up. I would like to nominate myself for predicting the Flames would score off the opening face off in the 2nd period in a game against the Ducks last year.
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#26
12-15-2006, 03:57 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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This is just wrong. Players rarely make guarantees because if they do it will be used by the other team to psyche its players up. [/ QUOTE ] WTF? Roy Williams? Chad Johnson? Are you kidding me?
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#28
12-15-2006, 04:10 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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So a prediction needs to be high probability for someone to be smart about it? [/ QUOTE ] Well...yes. If you come to me and say "I predict event X will occur" and X has a low probability, isn't that a stupid prediction? I guess what you're saying is that if the consensus is that something is very unlikely and you believe it is less unlikely, then there is a chance that your estimate is more accurate. But that doesn't make you some kind of prophet if you say it will happen and then it does happen.
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#29
12-15-2006, 04:26 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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Well...yes. If you come to me and say "I predict event X will occur" and X has a low probability, isn't that a stupid prediction? [/ QUOTE ] I think you're trying to break it down into too simple of terms. What if I said "I predict event X will occur" and X has a low probability, and then I go on to give several sound examples of why I think X will occur. If X comes true, was I really making a stupid prediction?
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#30
12-15-2006, 04:41 PM
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Re: best sports prediction of all-time
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or Aaron Shatz predicting in the middle of the season LAST YEAR that the Chargers would win the SB this year are impressive, assuming that one comes true of course. [/ QUOTE ] You choose this to defend your point? Between this and the Giants post (which was proven wrong below), you are really struggling in this thread. I think its time to go to the pen.
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