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NBA totals test run.
So I've got it in my head that I've got a good system for NBA over/unders. The details aren't important; I'll just say that it may or may not involve eye of newt and a monkey with a typewriter. Because I'm so faithful to large sample sizes, I'm gonna wait till the end of this week before actual bets get placed. Until then, it's all play money. I'll start with the test bets from Monday and Tuesday, along with tomorrow's games.
(thoughts completely unrelated to picking system after each game) M 12-11: POR @ PHI - OVER 186.5 - 2 units. -2 MEM @ NJN - OVER 187 - 2 units. +2 CLE @ NOK - OVER 181.5 - 1 unit. +1 SAS @ LAC - OVER 187 - 1 unit. -1 total:0 Tu 12/12: SEA @ MIL - UNDER 208 - 2 units. +2 SAC @ GSW - UNDER 214.5 - 2 units. -2 DEN @ ATL - UNDER 209 - 2 units. +2 LAL @ HOU - OVER 183 - 2 units. +2 total: +4 W 12/13 PHO @ MIA - UNDER 210 - 1 unit. Looks about right. It's close, though. In Miami I like the under. CHA @ CLE - OVER 184.5 - 2 units. Bobcats are terrible, but I think Lebron is enough to get this game over 184.5. I don't know if I'm double confident, but the system says I should be. DEN @ WAS - UNDER 221.5 - 2 units. 2 high scoring teams. I just think the line is too high. Could be close, though. MIL @ NJN - OVER 201.5 - 1 unit. Nets at home should keep the pace up just enough to get over. MIN @ SAS - OVER 181 - 1 unit. Low number. Won't be a track meet, but should get over. SEA @ CHI - UNDER 202 - 2 units. Bulls D good enough at home to keep this under. LAL @ DAL - OVER 193 - 1 unit. This doesn't take Odom's injury into account. Who knows... I'm taking the best line I see on sbrlines at the time of posting for each bet. When more lines go up for tomorrow's games, I'll add more bets/adjust lines. Any thoughts? |
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