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#21
12-10-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No, you don't have a guarantee you'll get a better hand soon. The odds just say you should. [/ QUOTE ] Please elaborate. In a couple of hands I will in BB, in a couple more blinds will go up. What are the odds I will pick up a decent hand AND will get action on it cefore I'm down to 3 BB's and have to open-push any 2 with no FE? [/ QUOTE ] This is why you should open push with something like J9o from late position. In that case, it is a cEV+ play, because you may pick up the blinds and if you get called by AX, Kx, or 22-88, it may be slightly cEV+ with pot odds. Also, you get AQ+, 99+ 28/661 = 4.2% of the time. Therefore, in two rotations, you are the heavy favorite to get one of those hands. In most cases, you can play hands like that as a short stack regardless of the action. So wait for a good hand or a good stealing oportunity. If you had 1xBB in a tournament with 3xBB blinds and antes, then calling a raise with any two is a good play. If you get HU, you are getting 4-1 pot odds. Plus you have to do something because you are going to be anted out. With 7.5xBB, this is a completely different situation. 
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#22
12-10-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Also, you get AQ+, 99+ 28/661 = 4.2% of the time. Therefore, in two rotations, you are the heavy favorite to get one of those hands. [/ QUOTE ] At an 8 handed table he is actually not favored to get one of those hands: (odds of not getting one of those hands)^number of trials (1-.042)^16 = .5033 therefore he will not get one of those hands 50.33% of the time. Clearly this is an automuck but I just wanted to point out the error in your basic math
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#23
12-10-2006, 11:00 AM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also, you get AQ+, 99+ 28/661 = 4.2% of the time. Therefore, in two rotations, you are the heavy favorite to get one of those hands. [/ QUOTE ] At an 8 handed table he is actually not favored to get one of those hands: (odds of not getting one of those hands)^number of trials (1-.042)^16 = .5033 therefore he will not get one of those hands 50.33% of the time. Clearly this is an automuck but I just wanted to point out the error in your basic math [/ QUOTE ] I didn't actually work out the math. So he gets 99+, AQ+ about half the time in two rotations. Sometimes he gets them 2 or three times. If you lowered it to 77+, AT+, KQ, he gets one of those 9.7% of the time. My point is he should get plenty of playable hands and good stealing situations, so there is no reason to call an early position allin with J9o.
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#24
12-10-2006, 02:59 PM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
It all comes down to whether or not I will get another opportunity that's better than this one often enough. It's not about whether I will pick up a better hand in 2 orbits - I'll have 3 BB's an orbit from now and no FE. Doubling up THEN will put me at 6-7.5 BBs and still in a push/fold mode.
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#25
12-10-2006, 03:21 PM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
morn: Could you briefly eloborate on what you mean by, "average 20/180 player"? I kind of know what the 4/180 and now the $10/180 means but I'm curious to know how the $20s differ. Thanks
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#26
12-10-2006, 03:31 PM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
well i think we have pretty much established this is one of the worst calls ever, so just post the results of how you sucked out vs AQ and went on to win this 180.
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#27
12-10-2006, 03:45 PM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
It all comes down to whether or not I will get another opportunity that's better than this one often enough. It's not about whether I will pick up a better hand in 2 orbits - I'll have 3 BB's an orbit from now and no FE. Doubling up THEN will put me at 6-7.5 BBs and still in a push/fold mode. [/ QUOTE ] Is your goal to win chips or lose chips. This is not a winning opportunity. If your goal is to lose chips, there are probably better ways to do that too. If you are looking to pick up chips, after you go throught the blinds, open pushing any two from late position is generally cEV+. Now you posted this correctly expecting abuse. I have been accused of being obstinate in defending my play, but this is ridiculous. Have you noticed that no one else has even said the call is halfway reasonable?
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#29
12-11-2006, 10:36 AM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
If you are looking to pick up chips, after you go throught the blinds, open pushing any two from late position is generally cEV+. [/ QUOTE ] If I were to fold through the blinds and it were folded to me OTB (with remaining 615 chips) - I can push BREAKEVEN with top 47% of my hands (assuming that SB with 3K will call relatively tightly and BB with 10K will call with top 50% of his hands). Pushing 27o there has EV of -78.8 chips (SNGPT). That is assuming that it IS folded to me OTB. Calling in this spot with J9o has EV of -99.9 which certainly APPEARS worse than pushing 27o from the button. It's as good or BETTER than pushing any 2 to me because a) I'm getting action for sure, and I need to double-up or better b) If I win this hand I will have 1880 chips which gives me more FE and maneuvering room for steals / resteals than 1300 I will get pushing and getting lucky from Button. c) The cEV difference of the two moves is very minor. I expect the extra chips I pick up by calling here to make up for cEV deficiency, i.e. the chips I stand to win here are worth MORE to me than the ones I'm currently holding due to increased utility of my stack those times I win. To paraphraze it, I believe that calling here is MORE +$EV that folding, even though that's not true of cEV. Rich - I did indeed suck out on AQo to win this hand only to lose later on AQ < 99 AIPF. I do not think my thinking about this hand is results-oriented at all, although I'm sure there will be posts that will say that it is. I persist in not letting this thread die only because it highlights a NON-STANDARD move to try and regain a fighting chance in a tournament situation where your stack and your FE are going downhill FAST.
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#30
12-15-2006, 01:52 PM
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Re: My turn in the ABUSE well - 20/180 hand.
[ QUOTE ]
I persist in not letting this thread die only because it highlights a NON-STANDARD move to try and regain a fighting chance in a tournament situation where your stack and your FE are going downhill FAST. [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't you have worried about that earlier, before you'd gotten down to 7 BBs?
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