Dementias NFL Games of the Week

[Claunchy]

OP -- if it makes you feel any better, I picked Indy and Seattle too, but I felt very BSP-ish after doing so.

Betting road favs isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world, but most good sports bettors generally need a pretty good reason to do so, which you haven't given yet. So that's where all the hating's coming from.

[MCS]

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Thinking it doesn't matter how much juice you have to pay is just staggeringly bad. You seem to be assuming that these are all LOCKS OF THE YEAR!!!!!11 and so you'll just pay any price. That's a losing strategy.

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Please do not pretend to have some meaningful 'insight' onto my overall betting methods because of one statement I made. I am willing to load up on these games regardless of the juice in this instance, and if that turns out to blow up in my face I will accept my loss like a man.

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I'm just going on what you said earlier. Do you think the juice matters usually? If so, why not in these specific cases? I am arguing that paying excessive juice will affect your long-term results a good deal and make it harder to be a long-term winner. You said earlier that long-term results do matter to you, but ignoring juice is a way to turn a winning bettor into a losing one.

I do sometimes wonder if 2+2 is sometimes too afraid of certain types of bets based on traditional, possibly outdated thinking. For example, not taking bridgejumpers (props for like -500) or road favorites. Still, when I find myself super-confident about a bet, I like to think of why I might be missing something.

I understand that you're not playing for a living, but 2+2 IS based around advantage gambling, so people are likely to respond within that context. Again, I don't hate the picks by any means, and I wish you well.

[ncboiler]

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(3) Arizona has been scoring a ton of points lately. They made St. Louis eat humble pie. I think they are capable of screwing up a few more teams playoff dreams.

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AZ's offense is not good. Ya okay last week they scored 34 points off of a mediocre, at best, defense. Week before that they scored 26 against Minn. That one was legit even though they lost. But before that they scored 17, 10, 14, and 9 points. "The Edge" has tacklers hanging off his ankles as soon as he gets the ball. I really like Seattle here too. Call me a square because i probably am.

[cbloom]

1 to 2.5 point home dogs beat the spread 55% of the time. That's a better success rate than most cappers. Betting slight road favs is almost always a mistake.

[Shipwreck]

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1 to 2.5 point home dogs beat the spread 55% of the time. That's a better success rate than most cappers. Betting slight road favs is almost always a mistake.

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Not saying it isn't true; just wondering where does that stat come from?

[kdog]

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AZ's offense is not good. Ya okay last week they scored 34 points off of a mediocre, at best, defense. Week before that they scored 26 against Minn. That one was legit even though they lost. But before that they scored 17, 10, 14, and 9 points. "The Edge" has tacklers hanging off his ankles as soon as he gets the ball. I really like Seattle here too. Call me a square because i probably am.

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Not legit. Those 26 pts included a 99 yd kickoff return and a 99 yd fumble return.

If someone put a gun to my head and made me pick this game I'd take the Seahawks but hopefully that won't happen because I'd prefer to pass on it.

I do like two road favorites this week though.
Atlanta -1
Philadelphia -1

[MacGuyV]

I don't think I've ever given points w/ Seattle on the road, but I'd do it if you can get that line.
Disagree on the others: Miami (another team I never pick) is my fav. play @+3.5.
Was going to take Jax but the line opened lower than I expected so I think that's a 'stay away' game.
Pretty crappy week overall IMO.

[whitepotatoe]

Steelers -7 has HUGE VALUE!!!1 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[XXXNoahXXX]

It appears that the OP is just bad across all sections of 2+2

[Performify]

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Ty. They had been sitting at -3 when I jumped on them, just now when reviewing other games 5D had the Seahawks at -2.5 for -125. I've actually got both games at -2.5 but forgot to include the .5 in the OP. They still have pats at -3 over there though.

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Ah. Moving off -3 to -2.5 I can understand.

I thought you were moving from -2.5 to -2, which didn't track with me (especially so at the price you seemed to be paying).

Thanks for the clarification.