TD last-draw strategy tool

[DeathDonkey]

Thanks gergery. So the game theory optimal solution is the one that approaches the EV of the two hands with no further action after the second draw? (the numbers Mark gave at the beginning).

-DeathDonkey

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks gergery. So the game theory optimal solution is the one that approaches the EV of the two hands with no further action after the second draw? (the numbers Mark gave at the beginning).

-DeathDonkey

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as mark posted the ev will add to 5.5 since the ev of new bets is split between the people putting the bets in. the game theory solution is the one that maximizes your outcome given that your opponent will correctly adapt to any strategy you chose. is that what you mean?

-g

[DeathDonkey]

Well if both are playing optimally then won't they basically play perfectly regardless of the river cards, so the EV they had after the second draw will remain their true EV? Or do factors like position change the situation on the river such that even though both play optimally, player B will do a bit better than he should?

-DeathDonkey

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if both are playing optimally then won't they basically play perfectly regardless of the river cards, so the EV they had after the second draw will remain their true EV? Or do factors like position change the situation on the river such that even though both play optimally, player B will do a bit better than he should?

-DeathDonkey

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The work on simplified versions of poker like the [0,1] game (still waiting for my Bill Chen book to arrive, dammit!) suggests that the player who acts second does have an advantage. I'd love to see an exact answer for a non-toy game, but certainly we can expect that B will get more than his fair share. (It would be extremely interesting if this was not the case!)

Somebody else in this thread suggested using the [0,1] math to try to arrive at a good strategy for the problem I posed with this calculator, but the usenet threads I found only solved the "1 bet remaining" case, while here we have "4 bets remaining."

It is also not clear to me how to properly map the theoretical result from a continuous game to application in a discrete one. We could certainly assign each of the result hands a probability of winning, but I don't think that would ensure that the results carried over.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if both are playing optimally then won't they basically play perfectly regardless of the river cards, so the EV they had after the second draw will remain their true EV? Or do factors like position change the situation on the river such that even though both play optimally, player B will do a bit better than he should?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

DD, yes, EV after second draw will remain their EV. that EV includes the effect of position, the second player's better draw, and the range of outcomes both can get when playing optimally. obviously after the river cards are dealt the EV changes once you reach that decision node.

Mark, I believe toy game #8 from my prior link is most applicable to TD on the river. i may be mistaken, but it should be relatively close.

-g

[Phat Mack]

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Man, river folds can wreck you in this game.

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The biggest reason why the 5/10 game is so easy is because the vast majority of players let you play almost perfectly against them on the river which is the most important betting round.

They also manage to screw up the other three rounds fairly often, which is quite perplexing since it's pretty difficult to screw up automatic decisions, but that's a topic for a thread I'd rather not start.

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It's amazing how often it's wrong to fold, even for 22.

Note for Mr. Gritter: If you are going to post any more of these tools, please but something like "Not Safe for People with Strong Work-Avoidance Skills" in the subject line. I managed to kill most of the morning with this thing.