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#21
12-01-2006, 01:22 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] FE, my furry little friend. [/ QUOTE ] You don't have much. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think the turn check often represents villain giving up? I do. 
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#22
12-01-2006, 01:32 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] FE, my furry little friend. [/ QUOTE ] You don't have much. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think the turn check often represents villain giving up? I do. [/ QUOTE ] Do you expect villain to be betting AJ again on the turn? QQ? I expect a lot of villains to check and evaluate w/ overpairs here.
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#24
12-01-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
people who advocate betting the turn here, why do you like that over raising the flop? It seems a lot worse to me. I can understand calling flop to raise the turn if he bets. But if you call the flop and bet the turn when he checks then I think you should just be raising the flop for sure.
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#25
12-01-2006, 05:17 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
people who advocate betting the turn here, why do you like that over raising the flop? It seems a lot worse to me. I can understand calling flop to raise the turn if he bets. But if you call the flop and bet the turn when he checks then I think you should just be raising the flop for sure. [/ QUOTE ] well I can't speak on behalf of those who wanted to just call thef lop, but given that we did once the other guy checks there's still a good chance villain has nothing. don't be afraid of getting checkraised: be afraid of checking behind and eventually seeing his AK or random junk win the pot
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#26
12-01-2006, 05:22 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
why can't you bet and take it down on the river after checking the turn? make a small "I have top pair and think you will call with your second pair" type bet...
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#27
12-01-2006, 05:25 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff [/ QUOTE ] i like this but u have to wonder what hands he is checkraising turn with. AA checkraising turn would be very weird. i think that a turn c/r would be a bluff OR a hand he will lay down to a push a sufficiently large percentage of the time. i think river is just depending on history. just give up if he thinks you are out of line often, shove if he doesn't. edit: i think JJ and QQ are sufficiently believable holding for you to shove the river if he checkcalls, so i shove
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#28
12-01-2006, 05:39 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
why can't you bet and take it down on the river after checking the turn? make a small "I have top pair and think you will call with your second pair" type bet... [/ QUOTE ] a) He might bluff the river keeping you from making a move (unless you have cardshark-sized balls) b) He might call you with hands he would have given up with on the river out of fear of playing a big pot OOP but is now suspicious of your call/check/bet line (TPGK, second pair, AK, etc) c) He might c/r the river with air since your line screams one-pair hand at best d) Metagame considerations regarding betting the turn with made hands and getting paid off in future spots That's all I can think of. Note this isn't an argument against betting the river as you could argue that the first three are remote/non-applicable possibilities and the last one isn't important enough if the other 3 aren't operative. But it's an argument for why if you're going to make a move on the pot it should be on the turn not the river.
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#29
12-01-2006, 05:44 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
I definitely hear those reasons, but to me it still seems like the best option for winning a big pot (which should be your primary consideration this deep) is to raise the flop. This also generates most fold equity because on this draw heavy board you would raise the flop with a strong made hand to protect and for value.
Once you flat call the flop, betting the turn is a pure bluff, since you won't have odds to call a push, and he is fairly unlikely to c/c the turn, IMO, with these stack sizes (although if you thought he would c/c the turn with an overpair here, then betting the turn is back to a semi-bluff and considerably better). Checking the turn somewhat reduces your chances of stealing on the river (for the reasons you mentioned) but it also increases your chances of winning a big hand (particularly if you hit a straight which will be disguised). All in all, it still looks to me like flat calling flop and betting the turn in this spot is the worst option.
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#30
12-01-2006, 05:56 PM
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Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
[ QUOTE ]
Checking the turn somewhat reduces your chances of stealing on the river (for the reasons you mentioned) but it also increases your chances of winning a big hand (particularly if you hit a straight which will be disguised). All in all, it still looks to me like flat calling flop and betting the turn in this spot is the worst option. [/ QUOTE ] checking the turn and betting the river doesn't SOMEWHAT decrease your chances of taking it down, it decreases them by i do not know how much but a godawful lot. we have to assume opponent is aware of the reverse implied odds of checkcalling a turnbet oop when having no info of what the river card or river action will be. the meta repercussions of it are kind of interesting though and i kinda think checking the draw here on turn here is pretty good for meta, atleast if you are usually a very agressive player. thoughts on that? ps still undecided on flop. ps2 drunk and coked up like [censored] crazy, sorry
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