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#3
11-27-2006, 11:07 AM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
It's pretty clear that BI has aces here, (mathematically unlikely, but highly probable given the action if that makes any sense) so I think the most interesting point of contention is what to do on third after you find this out. Before just jamming, I think you need to develop a hypothesis of what seat 8 is likely to do if you jam. My immediate read is that he is on a flush draw and that he is not going to give it up on third no matter what you do.
If it was me on a totally live flush draw I am happy to have a guy in second place jamming the pot three way. If you force me to call multiple bets on third, then you make the pot so big on fourth that many players will call fourth even if they brick, and hearts stay live. It is not even such a bad play. So I think a case can be made by easing up on third, hoping seat 8 bricks on fourth, and then hitting him with the check raise. I think you have a better shot of getting it heads up with that approach. If he hits another heart, then you need to seriously consider check folding on fourth, cause he is seeing the river and you are in second place with a good chance you will end up third in a real expensive pot. 
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#4
11-27-2006, 12:07 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty clear that BI has aces here, (mathematically unlikely, but highly probable given the action if that makes any sense) so I think the most interesting point of contention is what to do on third after you find this out. Before just jamming, I think you need to develop a hypothesis of what seat 8 is likely to do if you jam. My immediate read is that he is on a flush draw and that he is not going to give it up on third no matter what you do. If it was me on a totally live flush draw I am happy to have a guy in second place jamming the pot three way. If you force me to call multiple bets on third, then you make the pot so big on fourth that many players will call fourth even if they brick, and hearts stay live. It is not even such a bad play. So I think a case can be made by easing up on third, hoping seat 8 bricks on fourth, and then hitting him with the check raise. I think you have a better shot of getting it heads up with that approach. If he hits another heart, then you need to seriously consider check folding on fourth, cause he is seeing the river and you are in second place with a good chance you will end up third in a real expensive pot. [/ QUOTE ] wow this thread got off topic. Let me just say that from what I know at many hand levels 2-4 up to 10-20 pound, CPA is a very tight solid player...code name Charlie, he is a civilian contractor so you dont salute him, but you better listen to him, because the pentagon listens to him about your performance...blah blah blah I was inverted. Ok back to the hand after a slight top gun digression: I don't think you can quite give him aces yet on 3rd given all the nutjobs that play that game. he could have a lower pocket pair and not be giving credit for Kings...I see that all the time. You have 2 goals early on in the hand though....either look back to electrical's post on the first page which I think is on point, or continue on here.... you want to 1) find out what the hell the reraiser has and 2) get the 3rd player out of the pot. I totally agree with lstream here that 3-betting third is probably not going to acomplish either of these goals. I think check-raise is best on 4th because you are going to see a bet from the re-raiser almost every time, so you know you have the chance to get your two goals accomplished. If seat 8 calls 2 cold, you can lower the possibility he is on a flush draw significantly and then you can put him on a big pair maybe which is lower than yours most of the time (still be wary of his suit though if he catches 5th). If the bettor comes back at you on 4th there are really only two possibilities: aces or diamonds...I would lean towards aces given the dead suit and play accordingly. I am not sure I would check-fold if seat 8 catches a suited card on 4th and would probably play on to the reraise and fold if the aces pair up or if there is some more significant heat if you can't get seat 8 out. I think not putting in another bet on 3rd might cost a little bit in dollar figures but I think the information you can gain on 4th might make the hand play a lot easier. Check-call on 4th just simply can't be right though. As for the river, a bet is a judgment call and I think you need some kind of read. If you don't think you will get raised when he has aces up then bet because the avg player will pay off their unimproved aces...if you are worried about it getting jacked up then checking is prudent if you don't want to face the decision of folding Ks and Qs.
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#5
11-28-2006, 12:46 AM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
[ QUOTE ]
So I think a case can be made by easing up on third, hoping seat 8 bricks on fourth, and then hitting him with the check raise. I think you have a better shot of getting it heads up with that approach. If he hits another heart, then you need to seriously consider check folding on fourth, cause he is seeing the river and you are in second place with a good chance you will end up third in a real expensive pot. [/ QUOTE ] I have been getting my ass kicked the last few weeks, so I am not confident I am right, but this is precisely what went through my head when I said I favored the check-raise on fourth. Making the pot big on third (we all assume seat Eight will call all bets on third) makes it less incorrect (still incorrect, but by a smaller margin) for seat Eight to call a bet on Fourth, whether he has something like (9xA[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or (A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Whether Third ends up capped or not, making seat Eight call two cold with a c/r on Fourth is forcing him to make a bigger error, or folding him out. Either one is a good result. If hero bets and seat Eight calls, seat Six may raise, and then we're talking about a big-ass pot and a high-variance hand we're probably playing from behind. Capping Fourth then would present seat Eight with even better odds (than a check-raise) to call the double bet, making it less of an error for him to continue. I may be thinking simplistically about it, but it seems that maximizing the gravity of an opponent's error is as important as minimizing ones own exposure to error. Keeping the pot small on Third and check-raising Fourth accomplishes both.
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#6
11-28-2006, 11:44 AM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
electrical
"making it less of an error". Still an error and he's still less than 20% here, but I see your point. Thanks jordie why is a check correct here? Your only defender thinks you should bet.(Brad) Your a 70 % favorite here, do you really think he will lay down Aces every time.
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#8
11-28-2006, 12:05 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
And every 34 times you face this situation he has a profit $40 on a 30% HU hand. This is a tough decision, to lay down this hand given the pot size, and most 2-4 players will never fold wired Aces. So you are giving this 30% HU player a "no risk" profit.
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#10
11-27-2006, 10:39 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
thank you for the help everyone (even cpa [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) as a begin stud player im only thinking of my opp and how im behind right now but he cant make two pair with out me knowing it so im going to play on. and thinking as a begin im not thinking of how to get the flush/ pair of nines out. Its wierd to raise it up with a second best hand but thats a part of stud.
I think a river bet is way out of the question. Im obviously not alone on this either.
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