#21
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Re: Free Money
My own view (I am a tennis coinflipper who makes money off of lines rather than handicapping) is that "good Blake" has a top 3 game but bad Blake should be ranked maybe #10. TR is probably overranked at 6, but he is very consistent. I'm not really sure about how much public money goes in on Blake, but I didn't feel that he was overbet today. -250ish in a match on carpet v TR that meant something seemed reasonable, so -230 or whatever in a dead match seems ok.
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#22
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Re: Free Money
Cool, well what you think about tomorrows matches? Im in total agreement that Blakes potential is much greater than robredos. Robredo has gone as high as he'll ever go with this seasons effort.
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#23
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Re: Free Money
On Bet365: To Win Shanghai Outright
Federer 1.20 Nadal 8.00 Nalbandian 10.00 Blake 13.00 Surely there is value in taking all three of the others for 1 unit each, Nalbandian has beaten federer before on indoor courts at Shanghai albeit he was a much better player back then. Nadal has beaten him on Clay this year, i know vastly different from indoor but still he has no mental issues with trying to defeat federer. Placing 1 unit on each of the other three equates to 6 to 1 on nadal, Surely he beats federer more than once in every six encounters on carpet?! And as for Blake he has the potential to trouble federer on his very best day, although i doubt he would beat him if he did reach the final. what ya think? |
#24
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Re: Free Money
At the start of the tourny I bet $1 on everyone to win except Fed.
This is what the remaining 3 will pay on a $1 bet. Nadal 9.05 Nalbandian 33.74 Blake 41.16 |
#25
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Re: Free Money
Nice.
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#26
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Re: Free Money
[ QUOTE ]
Cool, well what you think about tomorrows matches? [/ QUOTE ] Remember, I'm not a winning tennis handicapper, but I like Blake here +odds. I feel that the fatigue factor is overdone. While Blake had to go three sets yesterday, he didn't look incredibly intense to me, he just played tennis and won the match. I think that Nadal is having a pretty good week and that Blake's win over Davidyenko is also reasonable. By contrast, Nalbandian's win over Roddick is deeply suspect as Roddick pretty clearly had a hangover from the Federer match and wasn't playing his best in the first set. I think either player could win this match and I think that Blake +odds has to be the bet if you are going to bet on it. On the other side, Nadal + 500 sticks out as "that has to be a good price", but I don't think it is. I don't want to lay that much wood on Federer and I will not go against him (though I do have a bet on Nadal to win the cup made pre-tournament at +950 that I do not have much confidence in). One thing that I would say is that where Federer has trouble, he seems to have it in the first set and then gets better, so I might like a prop on Nadal to win the first set if good odds were available. |
#27
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Re: Free Money
I took federer to win in three sets, although its not a bet i have great confidence in after the start hes made. I think im gonna hit blake for 3 units for the reason you state above, i just dont think Nalbandian is the same player he was a year ago. He has looked decidedly over-weight at times this season and blake has the shots to beat him.
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#28
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Re: Free Money
Oh baby. Dont think ive ever seen federer play three points in a row that badly.
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