Hand vs. Allen Cunningham at Borgata Poker Open

[MLG]

ad,
what's so bad about checking the turn?

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say it is likely he called with 55-TT. He could also have something like AJs or KQs, in which case, you don't get much action. Weaker medium to high suited connecting cards are possible, but may not be consistent with AC's style. AA is also possible.

When he flat calls, he probably doesn't have 55 or 77. 66 or maybe 44/33 is possible. 88-TT is consistent with the flat call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betgo,
I would lay 1,000:1 that AC does not have AJs here preflop; I would lay 500:1 that he does not have KQs... AC is not one of your typical 20/180 opponents. He is very rarely limping in MP with AJs and he is never calling off 10% of his stack against this squeeze. Even though AC probably expects that the hero is squeezing here and he knows that the hero can have a big range he isn't playing a hand here that is easily dominated/confused vs. the AA/AK that the hero is representing.

Kramer,
I hate your pf play. I know that there are great players who advocate those huge squeezing ranges but I think that it is just wrong here. I think that this hand is like the hand from WPF that was posted against Pete the Beat where the hero openraised with 89s UTG+1... I have to admit I like your pf play better than that one but in my oppinion both are pretty unecessary.

Allen scares me. I have only played with him once before (although I did watch every hand of the live WSOP ME because I had 3k on Cunningham to win) so my sample size is certaintly small but from what I have seen he plays really tight solid poker.

Even if he expects that you would get out of line with your fancy squeeze plays on the button, calling your bet with the intention of outplaying you when you very well could have a monster is not his style. Allen does not think that you have AA here but he is willing to give you credit for AA and he is only playing a hand that can beat AA.

I think that AC is openraising AK/AQ preflop so I am going to severly discount the chance that he holds them. I think that he raises preflop with JJ-AA so those hands are out too. This leaves us with 22-TT as his possible range of hands.

By the turn there are
0 ways that he can make 22 He would have folded his 6 pocket 2s combinations on the flop

1 way that he can make 33
1 way that he can make 44
6 ways that he can make 55
3 ways that he can make 66
6 ways that he can make 77
6 ways that he can make 88
6 ways that he can make 99
3 ways that he can make TT


If Allen is playing the way that I think that he is playing and the way that the hero described him as playing then there are
32 hands that he could have on the turn before we act
note: while we know this about his hands our range is so wide that Allen probably is not sure were he is at but probably does not expect bottom two pair (which, by the way, is worth exactly as much as the AA that you were representing with your squeeze)
7 have us drawing dead (66/44/TT)
1 hand has us drawing to one out.(33)
6 have sixteen outs to beat us (55)
6 have ten outs to beat us (77)
12 have 8 outs to beat us (88/99)... if he doesnt fold these on the turn.

Thus leaves us with the 12 combinations of 88/99. I do not know if Allen is calling another barrel with those hands on this board on the turn if his plan intially was to get a hand big enough to crack the AA that you were representingm(are you intentionally representing any hand in particular with your bets right now? AKs maybe?) but he probably does since you kept the pot nice and small for him.

Keep in mind that Allen does not realize that he has close to as many outs as he actually has here. This is a situation where we have near complete information on the villain and our hand is very disguised

What this means is that if you make a bet to knock out the 88/99 on the turn the our hand has the following equity vs Allens range by the river:

Board: 3c 4c 6d Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%)
Hero: 41.1364 % 41.14% { 4d3d }
Villain: 58.8636 % 58.86% { TT, 77-33 }


It looks like this this hand might be a bit more complex on the turn if we have ACs range correct.

[ QUOTE ]

what's so bad about checking the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't look like things would be that bad at all... we just have to try our hardest not to spike a 2,5,6,7 or a 10 on the river

I think that I got sidrtacked from where I started this reply... I will go back tomorrow to clarify anything that is unclear

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
ad,
what's so bad about checking the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check the turn and he has 55 or 77 you give him a chance to draw out whereas he probably wouldn't call a decent sized bet. I think given that he called the flop those 2 hands look pretty likely because you've been playing like you have a big overpair. If he c/r's I start getting scared of a set...I don't know if you can lay this down though. I don't think he would flat call a pair that he thought only had 2 outs, namely 88-TT on that flop.

[Prime Time]

I didn't like a check either.
You are only losing to a set, you want to build the pot some more while ahead.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
ad,
what's so bad about checking the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a free ~20% even if he 'only' has 8 outs, + he can have a ton more, + he is gonna CR with pair+draws or overpairs a lot here that we can pick off if you bet the right #...I know what you might be thinking and I would check AA here often, but not bottom 2.

[adanthar]

update: after talking to MLG some more, we're probably bet/folding and not bet/shoving which makes the two options much closer together. I still think betting is slightly better but it's not all that clear cut anymore.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
I decide to somewhat underbet the pot to look a little weak in hopes that AC had 55-TT and would decide that this was his spot to push.

So I bet out 1800 and Alan calls, which kind of surprised me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh.. you expect him to c/r with 88 here? For value?

You have to pot this because he's probably just calling any reasonably sized bet and his hand's very likely to hate the turn... so you wanna pot the flop with the intention to bet about 2/3 pot on any turn card over a 9 or so.

Your bet also makes it really tough for him to c/r because a push would be more than 2x pot (right?) and anything less than a push would be committing.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
update: after talking to MLG some more, we're probably bet/folding and not bet/shoving which makes the two options much closer together. I still think betting is slightly better but it's not all that clear cut anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the updated adanthar... bet/fold turn because I think there's still value from PPs.

[AMT]

id always lead 2/3-pot on the flop and not mind shoving the turn

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lay 1,000:1 that AC does not have AJs here preflop; I would lay 500:1 that he does not have KQs...

[/ QUOTE ]

Fiji --

I'll take as much of that action as you'll give.

--Nate