Stars 150, preflop push decision

[betgo]

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maybe a suited connector thoough.

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Show me a range where 87s>ATs.

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87s > A8s. The question was about playing a weaker ace than ATs.

[Ansky]

Come up with a different range if you like, but this seems reasonable. Looks like A8s>87s.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.4238 % 29.23% 01.19% { A8s }
Hand 2: 69.5762 % 68.39% 01.19% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
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equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.5647 % 29.29% 00.28% { 87s }
Hand 2: 70.4353 % 70.16% 00.28% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[jlocdog]

Is this a push or fold question?
Do you not want to make a standard raise here?
Is there a standard raise at this table or is allin become the norm?
Do you view this hand too good to fold and not good enough to see a flop?
Are you worried about your chipstack in relation to either the blinds or your opponents?
Why all the math? Is finding out if your range of hands you put your opponent/s on is 2% less than the value of your hand actually matter in the grand scheme of things here?

Just wondering

[Ansky]

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Is this a push or fold question?

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Yes.

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Do you not want to make a standard raise here?

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No.

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Is there a standard raise at this table or is allin become the norm?

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People who have enough to make standard raises make them. Shortstacks push.

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Do you view this hand too good to fold and not good enough to see a flop?

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I am <10 bbs and in early position. I'm in push or fold mode.

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Are you worried about your chipstack in relation to either the blinds or your opponents?

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Both of course.

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Why all the math? Is finding out if your range of hands you put your opponent/s on is 2% less than the value of your hand actually matter in the grand scheme of things here?


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This situation is nearly 100% math.

[gobboboy]

I muck it because I play shortstacks well.

[Ansky]

Do you have an amazing skill at open pushing with 7 bbs from the button with any 2 cards?

I'm going to bed finally. Goodnight you insomniacs.

[jlocdog]

Hehehe....I read it as though you were the one with 44000+. Thus the inquisition. Hold your breath.

[deankeaton7]

With blinds coming soon, and your stack going below 10 BB's I would push this, as your FE will be dwindling rapidement.

[jcm4ccc]

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As I say in all of these types of threads. It is mathematically impossble for this push to be -CEV.

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I thought you were wrong with this statement, but when I work out the math, it turns out that you are correct.

Let's imagine the worst case scenario. If someone has TT - AA or AJ-AK, they will call you. Otherwise, they will fold.

Here's the data:
With 7 people left, you will be called 30% of the time. You will steal the blinds 70% of the time.
If you are called, you will win 30% of the time. You will lose 70% of the time.

You push and everybody folds: You have 15k
You push, are called, and win: You have 26.5 k (estimated)
You push, are called, and lose: You have 0

So your expected chip count at the end of this hand is:
(15k * .70) + (26.5k *.09) + (0k * .21) = 12,885 chips.

Under the absolutely worst case scenario, you still gain a little bit.

[mlagoo]

a_plus, thanks a lot for chiming in. i will be the first to admit that the math you guys use to come to these conclusions often flies right over my head. i only hope i can learn enough that i never need to know the math itself [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

anyway, here was my question, and why i thought it might not be a push. while pushing may be +cEV, is it possible that it's less +cEV than pushing, given the same ranges for those still to act, a hand like a suited connector or Ax (A5o, for instance) or KJ from the CO or MP3?