help on turn please

[DING-DONG YO]

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I think turn is an easy call and the main decision will come on the river.

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Why call the turn and not the river? Do you mean you would fold if the river was any broadway other than A or K of course?

And if you fold the river, that means you think you're basically beat on the turn and are drawing to your 6-outer on the river which you don't have the odds for.

[TomBrooks]

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His range can definitely include AJ, ATs, KQ, KQs, KJs. Come on people, this a steal situation, his range can include top 50% of all hands!

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Preflop, yes. But not when he checkraises the flop. He now has a set or pocket pair.

[TomBrooks]

There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.

On the flop, I would be suspicious of BB's check and would consider checking this through and hoping to hit a King or Ace.

His check/raise indicates a pocket pair. Note there is no flush draw and it seems unlikely he would have 3Bet 98 or even 98s giving him an OESD.

Agaisnt a pocket pair your a 3:1 dog unless he has AA, KK or made a set in which case your practically dead. If he would 3 bet preflop with any pocket pair there are five of them that have you almost dead and 8 of them that leave you 3:1.

Lets just assume your completely dead for ease of calculation 5/13 of the time. Then 8/13 of the time you have a 25% chance to draw out. But thats with 2 cards to come. You will have to call another bet on the turn.

Your chance of making your hand on the next card is about 12.5% or 7:1. Since this will only be good 8/13 of the time anyway, your chances of winning if it comes are 8/13 x .125 = .077 or about 13:1.

Therefore, as played, getting 11:1: Fold to the flop checkraise, although a peel is close. Note that if you had not capped preflop, you would have been getting only 9:1 and you could have easily gotten away from your longshot hand.

<u> Alternately </u>

If you think BB would only 3Bet with 99 and up, you are almost dead to 2 hands and a 7:1 dog with one card to come for 4 hands.

That makes the calculation 4/6 .125 = .08 and your about a 12.5:1 dog against his range. It works almost the same, your just a fraction better.

Note if BB would 3Bet only 66 and up, your dead to 4 hands and 7:1 against 5 hands. Your chances are even worse. And 88 (or 55 if we throw that in, also gives BB BDSD chances.)

Conclusion: Peeling the flop is marginal at best.


(The TURN is a fold, even though the pot has been inflated quite a bit to this point.)

[DING-DONG YO]

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Preflop, yes. But not when he checkraises the flop. He now has a set or pocket pair.

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Lawl

I will expand on my earlier comment. being that this is 2/4, the turn should probably be a fold. At a higher limit and/or a more aggressive opponent, I would call down.

[suited89]

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There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.


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But couldn't villain be raising a worse ace (AQ,AJ,AT maybe) and maybe even a hand like KQs since it is a blind battle so do we not want to cap preflop to extract maximum value if we are dominating him?

[TomBrooks]

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There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]But couldn't villain be raising a worse ace (AQ,AJ,AT maybe) and maybe even a hand like KQs since it is a blind battle so do we not want to cap preflop to extract maximum value if we are dominating him?

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If he has one of those hands then yes a cap is good. But you don't know if he has that or a pocket pair which makes you a dog. It's not that big a deal and going either way is probably OK. If you know what BB's three betting habits were against a Button Steal, it might help swing the decision one way or the other.

Some things you know are BB has some kind of good hand, you have a good but not made hand, there are no blinds to knock out or to help pad the pot with underdog money, and capping is not going to win the pot right there.

[Scary_Tiger]

lol at people listening to TomBrooks and not me.

[TomBrooks]

I just thought of something else.

With a set, BB might be likely to c/c the flop and go for a checkraise on the turn. So lets figure his most likely hands are 99-AA.

Peel the flop is good.

Still fold the turn. A call here is only marginal if he has 99-QQ. Add the chances he has AA, KK or a set and the turn is an easy fold.

[yourface]

scary, are you advocating the turn call river fold because you don't expect someone with those stats to bet the river with less than a pair after being called on the f+t?

[gopnik]

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I think turn is an easy call and the main decision will come on the river.

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Why call the turn and not the river? Do you mean you would fold if the river was any broadway other than A or K of course?

And if you fold the river, that means you think you're basically beat on the turn and are drawing to your 6-outer on the river which you don't have the odds for.

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I am not in the "if you call the turn, you have to call the river" camp. We do have the odds to call on the turn, plus if I hit, I am raising. Often, he'll check the river and our A is good.