working on tough folds 3/6 & 5/10

[jt1]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>WIN
QQ 6
AJ 16
_____
22

My intuition had been to fold, but that's a clear call on the river.
</pre><hr />


I would beat those hands but what are the odds that villain has them? How frequently does a villain who is TAG with just average aggession (in other words one who, when in doubt, prefers to see the SD cheaply) play QQ or AJ like that + the frequency that I'm misreading him?

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a tip:

Don't work on tough folds against LAGS.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good tip. I'm retarded for needing to be reminded of it. I've been thinking a lot about these two hands and I think on hand one I gave up a tiny bit of equity in folding the turn. I should have called the river too. In calculating my equity I gave myself a 10% chance that I was currently ahead. If the river card had been a heart, I'm not sure if I should still see a SD or not.

[Leader]

[ QUOTE ]
I would beat those hands but what are the odds that villain has them? How frequently does a villain who is TAG with just average aggession (in other words one who, when in doubt, prefers to see the SD cheaply) play QQ or AJ like that + the frequency that I'm misreading him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume he bets you with JJ, TT, AA, AQ of hearts. That's 13 combos. AJ/QQ is 18 combos. The pot is offering 16-1. 13/16 is .8125. This is the amount of combos he would need to have of hand you beat in order for you to call. .8125/18 is 4.51%, which is the percentage of the time he has to play AJ/QQ this way in order for this to be a call.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is offering 16-1. 13/16 is .8125. This is the amount of combos he would need to have of hand you beat in order for you to call.

[/ QUOTE ]


?

[Leader]

Say he has 16 combos that beat you. How many combos does he need to have so that you can call? One right? Ok. So in this case his range has 13 combos that beat you. Therefore we have the following equation: 13/16=x/1 were x is the number of combos needed to call when he has 13 combos that beat you. So x=13/16 or 0.8125 combos.

[spyyderz]

[ QUOTE ]

But when you don't improve it's a fold. I call the turn hoping to spike a Q or have the board pair and hope it counterfits his 2 pair. 3 betting the flop and then getting cr on the turn screams you are beat, he is aggresive yes but this is A VERY STRONG MOVE. When you don't improve on the river I fold it.

Also you only have 30 hands on this villain, not enough to determine if he really is a lag.



[/ QUOTE ]
hand1:
alot of the hands that beat you with your pair your aces will beat your two pair as well, so imo you either fold the turn, or call the turn hoping to improve, but call anyway UI because of the huge pot. Not to mention he may have been betting a draw.

hand2:
i think this is either a turn fold or a call down. No point trying to improve to two true outs. so either your reads should tell you you are beat and fold the turn, or your reads should tell you you are ahead alot of the time and call down... not try to improve

[jt1]

For real, I don't get the math your sprouting. But using my own hand ranges, I get that villain needs to be that aggro with AJ or QQ 1 out of 7 times.

Villain's hand range for me is any set including sixes and any Ace high flush including the ATh. So I'm not sure which formula your using, but that's what I got. If your curious to see how I got 1/7 feel free to PM me...



Also, I want to add that I had villain as a TAG less aggro than myself. And I could only see me playing AJ like that on my worst days when I didn't have the Ace of hearts and QQ like that only if I was planning on bet/folding the turn (which would probably be on my best days) and not having the Queen of hearts.

[Leader]

[ QUOTE ]
For real, I don't get the math your sprouting. But using my own hand ranges, I get that villain needs to be that aggro with AJ or QQ 1 out of 7 times.

Villain's hand range for me is any set including sixes and any Ace high flush including the ATh. So I'm not sure which formula your using, but that's what I got. If your curious to see how I got 1/7 feel free to PM me...

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you understand this:

"Say he has 16 combos that beat you. How many combos does he need to have so that you can call? One"

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]


Also, I want to add that I had villain as a TAG less aggro than myself. And I could only see me playing AJ like that on my worst days when I didn't have the Ace of hearts and QQ like that only if I was planning on bet/folding the turn (which would probably be on my best days) and not having the Queen of hearts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This way of thinking is wrong. You don't play against yourself

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand this:

"Say he has 16 combos that beat you. How many combos does he need to have so that you can call? One"


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes


[ QUOTE ]
This way of thinking is wrong. You don't play against yourself

[/ QUOTE ]


If I was playing against someone as or more aggro with TPTK/overpairs as myself then I'd have called. Against someone less aggro than myself, I folded.

I can see him playing QQ like that if he's planning on bet/folding the turn but I don't see him as a guy who bet/folds. He prefers seeing a SD to getting max value and risk loosing the whole pot.

[_Z_]

I don't mind the fold in hand 1. I do this too when I have a good read. You have top pair good kicker and you've played your hand like you have ... top pair good kicker. And he check raised you on the turn. Though in this case his stats would lead me to call down. Anyways, I think it's a close decision and player dependent. Call turn, fold river unimproved (any piece of the board pairing would be an improvement) could be argued for too.

I really don't like the fold in hand 2. There's some hands he could reasonably have that you have beat. This plus the few percent chance he's playing unreasonbly makes me think this is an easy river call. I like your flop and turn play.

Z