Math professors find lotto strategy

[SamIAm]

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Anyway, about this article... They are avoiding multiple people in the group choosing the same 6 numbers (or however many numbers), which would be -EV, so in that sense it is +EV over the same group of people independently choosing 6 numbers. But, their scheme has the SAME EV as me just buying one ticket on my own. It does, however, reduce the variance over that.

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I assumed it wasn't just avoiding overlap WITHIN the group, but also with the rest of the lotto. For instance, I assume they only picked tickets that couldn't be dates, as that's a common enough way to choose tickets that those are (more) -EV.

I don't really know what the hell the article was talking about with "using all the numbers". It's pretty clear this publication isn't exactly a technical journal. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[durkahdurkah]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA

There is no way these guys figured out a "system" to beat the lotto.

The only way to "beat" the lotto is to wait for the total jackpot to exceed your odds of winning after taxes & penalties of taking a lump sum payment.

So assuming one ticket costs $1, and there are 6 numbers to a line on that ticket, and 54 numbers total... if I remember math right, your odds of winning would be (54!/48!):1, or 18,595,558,800:1 odds. For this to be +EV then, assuming taxes = 0 and penalties = 0 and 0% chance of someone picking your exact line so you get 100% payout... you'd need an 18,595,558,801 or greater jackpot. I don't see how buying more tickets really changes the EV calculation.

Sounds like an awesome system. I vote for crock of [censored].

[FortunaMaximus]

Didn't an Aussie syndi try a big-block strat... Forget the rest of the details tho, but it made some media a few years back.

[lippy]

It's just really, really messed up that the lottery is an inferior good.

Poor bastards.

[Jasper109]

There was a report on CBC last night about lottery clerks winning a disproportionate number of large prizes.

I didn't see much of it, but they have been apparently scanning winning tickets and telling people that an actual winning ticket was in fact a loser.

[FortunaMaximus]

How'd that court case with the short-con convenience store couple go...

I hardly read popular media anymore. It's a good day when I don't see mushroom clouds.

[zipppy]

"But a syndicate of university professors and tutors in Britain thought it [winning the lottery] could also be related to the principles of mathematical probability."

[arbitrary]

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if I remember math right, your odds of winning would be (54!/48!):1, or 18,595,558,800:1 odds.


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You don't remember your math right.

(If you care, you are off by a factor of 720.)

That being said, if you play the lotto for any reason other than so you can fantasize about what you will do if you win (ie expecting to win), then you are deluding yourself.

==arbitrary

[splashpot]

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I find it hilarious that you're applying EV calculations to a $2 lottery ticket. The chance of winning big is worth a few bucks now and then.

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Why would you not apply EV to a $2 bet? And no, if your odds aren't good, it's not worth a few bucks now and then.

As for this lottery, it's a load of [censored]. The only reason anyone is saying otherwise is because they're math profs. Which doesn't even mean for sure that they understand the basics of gambling. I've talked with a couple of my math profs about gambling and they don't have the slightest clue.

[bigbootch]

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I don't really know what the hell the article was talking about with "using all the numbers". It's pretty clear this publication isn't exactly a technical journal. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

I might have misunderstood the article, but this is what I understood them to be doing: put the numbers 1-50 (or however many) into a hat, and draw 5 at a time. so the first guy draws 7, 13, 20, 21, 30, and that's his lottery ticket. repeat WITHOUT putting those numbers back into the hat.

So basically you are picking lotto tickets that are guaranteed to be different - in fact, you are guaranteed that no two tickets share a single number. It's the former, not the latter, that prevents "wasting" tickets by picking doubles.

But again, I may have completely misunderstood the article.