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#22
10-26-2006, 05:08 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
If you assume that you must net over 10 SBs when you hit to make calling one bet preflop +EV, it does not follow that you somehow double the amount you need to net because you are investing two bets preflop. You invest another bet, so to earn money you must earn exactly one more bet. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true unless you flop a set 100% of the time. OP, the lag is in EP and you are in LP, meaning the two people in the middle will often call his flop bet before you even act on the flop (as happened here). This is the perfect situation for taking short odds on a PP. As to the flop call, if he's overplaying AK it makes him lose an extra SB, and sometimes it makes him lose 1.5 extra BB if he's willing to shut down with an overpair on that board (after you cap). If he c/r'ed the river, folding is out of the question, it may be worth a 3bet (if you think he'd 3bet the flop with unpaired overs). 
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#23
10-26-2006, 05:26 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
OK just to clarify . . . we are saying that we hit our set on the flop with 7.5:1 odds . . . but then even if we hit we still may lose so then we need ~ 10:1 (implied) odds to play a set?? This seems to be a bit too high.
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#24
10-26-2006, 07:18 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you assume that you must net over 10 SBs when you hit to make calling one bet preflop +EV, it does not follow that you somehow double the amount you need to net because you are investing two bets preflop. You invest another bet, so to earn money you must earn exactly one more bet. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true unless you flop a set 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] But the 10 SB figure already accounts for the fact that you only flop a set 1 in 8.5 times, no? How could investing 1 more bet preflop make it such that you have to earn an additional 10 bets postflop to make up for the money you put in postflop? If the answer is neither 20 nor 11 what is it and why?
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#25
10-27-2006, 03:16 AM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you assume that you must net over 10 SBs when you hit to make calling one bet preflop +EV, it does not follow that you somehow double the amount you need to net because you are investing two bets preflop. You invest another bet, so to earn money you must earn exactly one more bet. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true unless you flop a set 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] But the 10 SB figure already accounts for the fact that you only flop a set 1 in 8.5 times, no? How could investing 1 more bet preflop make it such that you have to earn an additional 10 bets postflop to make up for the money you put in postflop? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not understanding this question. If you need to win ten bets if you put one in, you need to win twenty if you put two in and thirty if you put three in. Do you think you get a discount for coldcalling or something?
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#26
10-27-2006, 03:30 AM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You should not be cold-calling here because you have no reasonable expectation that you will get more callers behind you. [/ QUOTE ] What if the blinds come along? There's a non-trivial chance of other players coming along, too. [/ QUOTE ] There's also a nontrivial chance they will make it three bets too. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You generally need pot odds of at least 5:1 to call with this hand because it most likely has only set value. [/ QUOTE ] Show your math. [/ QUOTE ] You flop a set a bit better than 1 in 9 times, right? And the set will get busted some amount of the time. So let's say that you will flop a set that will actually make money 1 in 10 times (which underestimates how often sets get cracked but nevermind). So you need to make ten bets for every set you make. If the pot offers 5 to 1, that's five. Now you must make five more between the flop and the river, just to break even. A raise on the flop is two if someone is kind enough to bet. Two callers isn't unreasonable if five have come to the flop with you. A BB on the turn is two. Another on the river is two. Voila! You've made your money. Better hope at least one fish comes all the way with you though. I think it's reasonable enough to say you need 5 to 1. I don't know where that figure comes from or who worked it out, or even what the maths are (and I'd still call on the button with a small pair if only two had limped, so there was no way I'd get 5 to 1), but it doesn't sound all that wrong. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The chance of then winning the hand with your set is around 70 or 75%. [/ QUOTE ] How do you figure? I don't think this is right: Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec Board: Ad 8c 2s equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 01.6162 % 01.62% 00.00% { AKo } Hand 2: 98.3838 % 98.38% 00.00% { 88 } [/ QUOTE ] You can't expect to be taken seriously if you do something like this. Obviously a set is a lock against a pair. Try it against decent ranges and a board with more draws. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This means that you need implied odds of over 10:1 to make your call +ev. If you make your set on the flop, after calling one bet pf, you must net over 10 SBs for the hand to make your pf call +ev. When you have to call 2 bets pf, you now must net 20 SBs to make your call +ev. [/ QUOTE ] What? Explain your reasoning. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Dude, it's pretty straightforward. If you only make the hand 1 in 8.whatever times and of those times you make it, it gets cracked a fifth of the time, you need to make 8.whatever bets plus a fifth of 8.whatever extra. That's about 10. If you don't make 10SB when you hit a set, you are giving money away. You can quibble over how many times your sets get cracked (and you'll sometimes redraw to fill up anyway) but you can see that you need somewhere between 8 and 10 SB to even make the call profitable.
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#27
10-27-2006, 03:33 AM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you assume that you must net over 10 SBs when you hit to make calling one bet preflop +EV, it does not follow that you somehow double the amount you need to net because you are investing two bets preflop. You invest another bet, so to earn money you must earn exactly one more bet. [/ QUOTE ] This isn't true unless you flop a set 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] But the 10 SB figure already accounts for the fact that you only flop a set 1 in 8.5 times, no? How could investing 1 more bet preflop make it such that you have to earn an additional 10 bets postflop to make up for the money you put in postflop? If the answer is neither 20 nor 11 what is it and why? [/ QUOTE ] Ah okay. Now I understand. The answer is because you must make money for *every time* you put two bets in. It's not one bet this once. It's the extra bet *every time* you pay two with a PP. You have to make sufficient profit to pay for each time you do it, not just this one or that one that you win.
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