Iggy's Week 9 CFB picks

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
i lean rutgers but need more opinions

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My very early, very general thoughts on this one:

1. UConn has trouble scoring points and RU's defense is for real.

2. RU has not been at this being ranked thing long enough to take a week off against a team they should beat easily.

[WFDeac]

For what it is worth on the WF/UNC game....Our players (many of whom I know and talk to) should not overlook Carolina at all. They are probably our most hated rival. I think our players are really looking forward to it.

That said, under Grobe, Wake has had a tendency to play up or down to the level of competition. In six years under Grobe, Wake has only lost by over 20 points six times.....However, at the same time we have let a lot of bad teams hang around (such as Duke this year). It really has become a trend that all Wake people recognize.

Overall, however, I think it is a good bet at 9.5. Skinner (WF QB) really doesn't turn it over (1 INT in 6+ games)....The front 7 is the strength of the Wake defense which should work well against UNC's offense (much stronger running with McGill than at QB)

[iggymcfly]

Overall records for the year:

(*Weighted win % in parenthesis)
ATS: 48-38-1, +11.15 units (53.1%)
O/U: 22-16-1, +8.47 units (57.6%)
1st halfs: 6-2, +3.66 units (60.9%)
Halftimes: 5-5, -0.31 units (49.0%)
Moneyline: 4-7, -6.20 units (35.0%)
Parlays and teasers: 2/14, +2.03 units (53.8%)

**Total record: 85-66-2, +18.8 units (52.96%), ROI= 6.13%

Record on games between two mid-major teams: 7-12
Record on games involving one mid-major team: 12-14-1
Record on games involving major-conference teams only: 65-40-1
Record on halftimes where I did not watch the first half: 1-5
Record on halftimes where I did watch the first half: 4-0


*Weighted win percentage = Total units won/(Total units won + total units lost). This winning percentage includes juice, so anything over 50.0% is a winning record.

**Record includes all games bet on. However, if both the moneyline and spread win or lose on the same game, it counts as one win or loss, not two.

[MicroBob]

ND has so many fans I suspect they draw mucho betting action regardless of what the line is.


Obviously ND is coming off a pretty exciting win.
This is the kind of game where they could suffer a bit of a letdown imo or, at least, not be as focused.


Game is at Navy and it's always a huge deal for them.

I suspect they aren't as completely terrible as their Rutgers result would indicate but that might be enough to scare me from betting this game.

I'm close, but that freaking 34-0 game against Rutgers is pretty impressive.
And I just don't think Rutgers is that good in the first place.
wins vs. NC, Ill, Ohio, Howard??? are you kidding me??, USF, PITT and Navy...I think PITT might be the only decent one in there along with Navy.


Speaking of which, I'm also pretty unconvinced that Rutgers -17.5 vs. UConn is the best of plays either.

Regardless of how lousy UConn has looked sometimes I just don't think they're THAT awful although I would admit that it does seem a very strong possibility that Rutgers could score 35 or so points on them.
But that play just doesn't feel quite right to me.

[Guyon]

Anyone like GT (-6) at home against Miami?

[iggymcfly]

Not particularly. They're coming off an emotional loss and while I do think they'll win, I don't see any kind of blowout. I thought the line would open around -4.

[iggymcfly]

I'm developing an affinity for bridgejumpers for some reason. Here's mine for this week.

Illinois at Wisconsin -1500 (15 units):

Wisconsin's been a really solid consistent team this year. They're 7-1 with their only loss to Michigan, and they haven't won a game this year by less than 14 points. Illinois's improving, but they're not on the Badgers' level yet, and I really can't see them winning this on the road. I'd say a fair line's somewhere around -3500 here.

[iggymcfly]

Florida State at Maryland +5 (2 units)
Florida State at Maryland +190 (1.5 units)

I'm all over Maryland in this one. After opening with some sluggish non-conference efforts, the Terps have played much better in conference play. The last few weeks, they have looked like a legitimate contender to win the Atlantic division of the ACC.

09/02 W & Mary W 27-14
09/09 M Tenn St W 24-10
09/14 at #5 W Virginia L 45-24
09/23 Fla Int'l W 14-10
10/07 at #18 Ga Tech L 27-23
10/14 at Virginia W 28-26
10/21 NC State W 26-20

They were about five yards away from pulling out the upset on the road against Georgia Tech (which would be a better win than anything FSU's done all year, and after coming out with an emotional hangover the first half against Virginia, they outscored the Cavaliers 28-6 in the second half. They followed that game up with the big home win over NC State. The point is that despite some ugly performances early in the season and when unmotivated, the Terps at their peak can play with any of the big boys in the ACC. I think a night game at home against Florida State qualifies as a situation where Maryland should be motivated.

Florida State meanwhile has been going in the other direction somewhat.

09/04 at #12 Miami W 13-10
09/09 Troy W 24-17
09/16 Clemson L 27-20
09/23 Rice W 55-7
10/05 at NC State L 24-20
10/14 at Duke W 51-24
10/21 #22 BC L 24-19

After the good win at Miami and the close loss to Clemson, things have gone downhill for the Noles somewhat. They picked up two losses the last three weeks, one to the NC State team that Maryland just beat, and one at home to a Boston College team whose QB was playing at about 70% with two major injuries.

With the expectations Florida State had this season (preseason Top 10), it's going to be pretty easy for them to suffer a letdown after picking up a third conference loss that basically destroys their chances of going to the ACC title game. And even if they don't suffer a letdown, there's no reason to think they can beat the Terps. Maryland's looked like a better all-around football team the last three weeks.

If the Noles do win this one, it will likely be by 3 or 4 points, but I like the Terps at home to win this one outright, 23-20.

[iggymcfly]

Texas A&M at Baylor +4.5 (2.5 units)

Texas A&M may well be the shakiest team in the Top 25. They started the season out with 4 non-games against teams ranked outside the Top 100, had one good game against Missouri, and looked bad in their other three conference outings.

09/30 Texas Tech L 31-27
10/07 at Kansas W 21-18
10/14 #19 Missouri W 25-19
10/21 at Oklahoma St W 34-33

They seem ripe to pick up a loss in a conference road game. Kansas is 0-4 in Big XII play and the Aggies just escaped them while OSU is probably the second or third worst team in the conference picking up their only conference win against that same Kansas team. Also, while the Missouri win looks impressive, I think it's more a result of the Tigers letting down on the road against a team that they thought they'd blow out than it was the Aggies really doing anything special to beat them.

Baylor
09/30 Kansas St W 17-3
10/07 at Colorado W 34-31
10/14 at #6 Texas L 63-31
10/21 Kansas W 36-35

Baylor meanwhile has done pretty well since conference play started, picking up their only loss against Texas, while beating Kansas State and Colorado teams that were both fairly decent. They didn't play very well against Kansas, but a little letdown's to be expected from a young team the week after playing a Top Ten team for first in the division.

Also, I like the matchup here. Baylor's been doing nothing but throwing this year with 371 passing attempts vs. only 141 attempts on the ground. Texas A&M while decent statistically due to their ridiculous early schedule has gotten torched both times this year that actually faced good passing teams:

Graham Harrell 32/45 for 392 yards with 4 TD and 0 INTs
Chase Daniel 21/29 for 295 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs

Basically, I think the Aggies are a slightly better overall team than Baylor, but that difference is very small. Meanwhile, the matchups favor Baylor, and they also have the advantage of playing in Waco. Those two things are enough that I think Baylor should win this outright, and if not at least keep it within 3 or 4. I think both the spread and moneyline show great value here.

[iggymcfly]

Because ML parlays are fun:

6-team parlay (1 unit to win 25.69 units):
Maryland +160, Baylor +175, Auburn -1405, USC -505, Georgia Tech -220, Washington State +100