Win Rates?

[SABR42]

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I just don't understand how pushing small edges wouldn't result in short term swings more severe than not doing so despite their long term +EV.

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A smart LAG is able to find many opportunities to push his small edges, allowing short-term luck to even out quicker. When a smart LAG runs hot, he will win many buy-ins in a short period of time, quickly cancelling out any really short-term downswings.

When a nut-peddler who only plays 10% of his hands runs badly at flopping sets, he is going to have a tough time winning any money at all.

[goofyballer]

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When a smart LAG runs hot, he will win many buy-ins in a short period of time, quickly cancelling out any really short-term downswings.

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That is definitely a very severe short term swing.

[SABR42]

True, I guess it depends on what you define "variance" to be.

My definition tends to simply be "losing".

[SEABEAST]

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True, I guess it depends on what you define "variance" to be.

My definition tends to simply be "losing".

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Yeah, same as most people, and quite incorrect.

[bobman0330]

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True, I guess it depends on what you define "variance" to be.

My definition tends to simply be "losing".

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I define it as 10 PTBB / 100. Therefore, everyone has the same variance.

"Swinginess" is related to the ratio between WR and real variance. So, increasing WR and variance at the same time can either increase or decrease swinginess.

[Keyser.]

I'm not really getting the discussion here. A tighter style = fewer fluctuations (both up and down ala variance). Looser style is more variance. What am I missing?

[snowbank]

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I have read that an achievable win rate for 1/2$ NL Holdem is 10bb/100 hands. Is this ten poker tracker big blinds(40$) or ten times the big blind (20$). Also have you guys found this to be an achievable win rate over a decent sample.

Thanks. I look forward to hearing some responses.

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Jaysick,

Welcome to the forums. As others have mentioned, they are referring to ptbb/100. This is an achievable win rate, but I would set your goals much more realistic if you are just starting playing 1/2. Aim for 2-3ptbb/100 to start and work your way up.

[snowbank]

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I have read that an achievable win rate for 1/2$ NL Holdem is 10bb/100 hands. Is this ten poker tracker big blinds(40$) [YES]. Also have you guys found this to be an achievable win rate over a decent sample.


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a 4 minute mile is an achievable goal for an excellent runner, but you can still get a varsity letter if you run a whole lot slower.

I bet there are plenty of 2+2ers that could whip out a much bigger win rate over plenty of hands, but 2 PT BB/100 for 100K hands is still plenty of decent money and is most likely indicative of an ABC style that is relatively (for NL poker, anyway) low variance. I suspect higher rates require (1) better table selection and buddy tracking, primarily, (2) better post-flop, player-depended play, and (3) a willingness to risk big to win big resulting in a little more short term variance.

I think good bankroll management + 2 BB/100 + grinding = able to move up and keep making decent money as you try to improve your table selection and post-flop play.


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I disagree with this post. Here's why:

Even an ABC/nitty style will make you over 2 ptbb/100. Also, I had way more variance when I used to play ABC than I do now imo.(note: maybe our definitions of variance are different) One a per session basis at least I have much less variance now.

As far as table selection, I don't use much if any table selection and still put up very high winrates. I don't think you need high vpip's on all your tables too make a lot of money. You have to play better than/outplay people at your table. Obvious, I know; but....If they are not high vpips you will be using a different strategy to play them.(note: I don't use pokertracker and I think although it probably helps a lot of people, and may add a tiny bit to your winrate, I think some people get caught up with all of it and forget to play their cards/opponents instead of the numbers on the screen from pt/pa hud. I'm definitely not putting it down though because I think it does help, I just think that this is not even close to as important as other things that people don't pay as much attention to)

I think good bankroll management + 2 BB/100 + grinding = able to move up and keep making decent money as you try to improve your table selection and post-flop play.

As far as this statement goes, this is way wrong. Not putting you down at all, I thought exactly the same way when I first got started playing professionally. I was going to make 2 ptbb/100 and move up when I had the roll and then I'd make double. That was my mindset. That's not how it works. I would say if you are playing abc/nit you can do something similar to this easier, but you are going to want to be making a lot better than 2 to move up or you will find yourself not liking the swings and feeling outmatched quite a bit. If you only won 2ptbb/100 at 200s you'd have a tough time making money at 400s imo, although you could do it.

2 PT BB/100 for 100K hands is still plenty of decent money

Totally agree with your here. Again, back to when I first started playing professionally, I thought it would be awesome if I could grind out 2-3ptbb/100. That's a LOT of money for most people if you are putting the hands in(in comparison to 9-5's) Obviously you start setting your goals much higher when you find out that it's simple to get to if you put the effort in, but ya, if you want to be a nit can only make 2ptbb/100(which is easy for most nits), don't let haterz get to you. That's still more money than most people can make in a year if you are getting hands in.

[ata]

I'm surprised there's so much confusion about what variance is. As some of the people above have said, its statistical definition in normal terms is the size of the peaks and valleys in your swings. Someone playing LAG will experience more peaks and valleys since they are pushing marginal edges for large sums of money. ABC players do not experience these swings as often (yes, everyone experiences bad beats, this is outside of bad beats and bad cards), so they have less variance.

[snakekilla88]

I am running at 10.6 pt/bb over 30k hands @ 100nl but at 200nl im running at -2.26 over 5k hands..really discourages me from playing 200nl