10/180 AA on Dangerous Flop

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
you raised even less than 4x.

[/ QUOTE ]Right, my math is messed up. I MEANT to raise a little more than 4x and just typed to quickly in the moment I guess. I like your re-raise range.

[FortunaMaximus]

[ QUOTE ]
you guys are dumb if you dont realize how little equity we need to make this +ev.

we have 1/3 of our stack in there already.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I realize that. What I also realize folding will leave him a good TAG stack with minimal chip forfeiture @ 10/20 and 20/40, and OP can fold here and not lose sleep over it.

As you say, it's a 10/180... And what's 1 - 1/3 = ?

[Jeff76]

We need ~25% here to call. Can we put together a reasonable range that gives us that?

[nath]

i would call, you're going to see some dumb hands in the early rounds of a 10/180
also i would probably just jam PF when it got back to me

[0evg0]

Jeff,

We put together a disgustingly horrid range and got 23%.

FM,

How many chips you have left if you fold is as relevant as what the player to your left's username is.

[stevepa]

We're getting 3.2:1 here and need to have ~24% equity. I think a worst case scenario is shover having JJ+ and caller having JJ, AsKs and any AK with a spade (mornelth, you left two of these combinations out, AsKh, AsKc). That gives us just over 24% equity. Since you'll occasionally see things like AJ (with or without a spade), AQ with a spade, TsT, (as well as 99/77), I think it gets tipped towards a call.

Steve

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
also i would probably just jam PF when it got back to me

[/ QUOTE ]Isn't this a huge overbet? I really considered this, even wanted to, but I felt like I'd end up chasing away some hands that would call a smaller bet.

[0evg0]

i think it's a bit too big.

if you had 1400 instead of 1750 or whatever i'd push tho.

[Jeff76]

BTW, all this discussion is what was running through my head in the few seconds I had to call, and I honestly I had no feel for what kind of equity I had in the pot. I knew I could be VERY far behind here or slightly ahead.

I have NO problem gambling it up here if I think I have enough equity, and I guess that was the reason for the post. The PF action was so confusing I had a lot of difficulty figuring out what either player could have. I figured one of them had to have either QQ, JJ, or AK; I couldn't see either player playing KK this way.

Thing was, their PF play was so donkish that I their range could be a lot wider than these hands, and I just didn't know how wide. Nor am I could enough to figure out what my equity is against that range on the fly.

[FortunaMaximus]

[ QUOTE ]
FM,

How many chips you have left if you fold is as relevant as what the player to your left's username is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and I'm not advocating a "It's a monotone board, instamuck here."

The equity's thin, as follow-up has shown. Had a gut feeling about that, trying to describe it though is like trying to speak a language I can read but not write.

Uh. It has nothing to do with the size of his stack, but the fact he will have pretty much a slightly below-average stack in the tournament. In a 180, it is generally a bad idea to pass up equity-correct calls. The concern is range-massaging to fit criteria for calling, while realizing that you still have 3:1 equity and 3:1 chance of being good against a correctly defined range.

<shrugs> Feels like a fold to me. PF is messy, and in a 180, it should be a overbet shove PF to clear the decision-making process and tuck in a siginificant number of early chips if you have FE.

And FE in these things tend to be as minimized as they ever get, so... And certainly with the caliber of play in these things, your actual equity may be higher than 23-25%.