MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action

[Smurph64]

I follow all what you are saying except part number 7 because I don't see the equity against your range with that board in Thrakkar's hand that makes calling a positive ev move for him.


In your analysis you said you would call down for a read but even though you estimated it was a pure bluff 36% of the time, you never mentioned rebluffing.

I am wondering if a call down under any circumstance is correct and is it better to fold or reraise here when faced with the donk bet?

[Guruman]

I tend not to be so terribly interested in rebluffs on the first hand of any encounter.

In this circumstance it would be more of a "free showdown" raise since my hand can't stand any more action, but I don't really like this spot for it because of how in the middle of my range that K is.

Thrakkar's bet doesnt look like its going to fold to a raise, and is more likely looking to threebet since I'm going to be tempted to raise with some of my jack hands and lots of my king hands.

If the turn card were a low blank I'd be more inclined to rebluff. Thrakkar leading on the K turn shows considerable strenght though, and is enough to cause me to fold outright.

Also, if I think he's bluffing I'd do better to just call down.

[Thrakkar]

I went through your post again. Since my HU skills are not the best I try to learn as much as I can. Still there are some arguments in your post that I still don't fully understand or disagree with. Enlighten me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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5)since you're a huge dog when I call, your turn bet is essentially a pure bluff. You have five outs if you dont get raised, but the pot is not nearly the size you need it to be to justify that.

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I think I <u>had</u> the necessary odds:[ QUOTE ]
My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

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IOW I'll have to both have and fold a better hand a very high percentage of the time in order to justify the bluff based on the pot size.

7)If instead of betting you were to check, I would bet my entire range, much of which you are still beating. You could at that point choose to just call me down, or to call here and check/fold the river - since I'd have to check behind most of my weaker showdown hands like pps and Ax.


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I think you miss something here: It's not <u>only</u> about you folding a better hand, but also not letting you draw out on me on the river! Put yourself in my shoes for a moment!
From my perspective there are a LOT of scare cards that could fall on the river: 15 = A(4), T(4), 9(4), 2(3)
another 10 cards are no help either: K(3), J(3), 7(4) =&gt; str8!

So 25 out of 46 unknown cards (&gt;50%) will leave me at least guessing about where I stand so <u>I tried to end the hand right here</u>! And according to my calculations (correct me please, if they are wrong) I had a nice overlay of up to ~70% compared to the needed 23%.

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I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack to the turn donk because the turn donk doesnt look like a K. It looks like a J.

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This puzzled me the most! My action was based on the assumption that you would fold a hand that doesn't beat KK and doesn't have the odds to draw. I made a poll, because I'd like to learn if that's how HU works. Personally I think that odds are odds, no matter how many players and if I don't have the odds to draw I should be strongly inclined to fold.
With 5 outs you would need &gt;8.2-to-1 implied odds to continue with your Jx hand vs. a paired king. The pot offered 4.5 BB, so even if you get 2 bets from me on the river it's still 2BB less than needed. So why continue? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

-Thrakkar

[Guruman]

your hand doesnt look like a king because a king will tend to either check/call or checkraise the turn. This is because I'll bet most of my range on the turn again, and the king doesnt want to fold out the weaker hands.

more later.