UFC 64

[Performify]

Heh, Swope you posted yours while i was in the process of formatting mine for posting here. Although mine did go up on my blog about 2 hours ago. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Looks like we're on the same page except for one play: I think there's +EV in the line of Justin James +257. James can possibly catch Guida in a sub, Guida has proven he's succeptible to them. But as usual that's a pure +EV play: its certainly more likely that Guida wins this, I just think the disparity in the line is worth the underdog play here.

[Performify]

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Thanks for the analysis. Awesome as always.

I laughed my ass off when I saw this, "Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets." It is just a touch misleading [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Happy to share, as always.

I thought about saying "1-0 on crazy all-in bets, +a lot of units" but figured I'd just let it go [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[swope]

i found your evaluation of the guida v james fight to be very insightful, i had neglected to take into consideration how long ago james had gotten tapped out by gurgel. im going to have to think long and hard whether or not i want to hedge this.. im hoping that guida's training with franca can negate james' sub skills, but youve definately got me thinking on this one..

[Shakes]

I got down on Sherk and Okami. Thanks for the analysis, Perf.

[Performify]

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sherk v kenflo: this should be a recap of diego vs kenflo, but with both of them dropping down to 155, im left wondering just how effective sherk is going to be without that body mass behind him. can sherk at 155 shut down kenflo? if not for the weight change i would stack up on sherk for ever.. but at 155 im putting feather-light action on kenny.


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Last week Sherk is walking around at 175 pounds. He hasn't lost any major muscle mass in the cut. He's still got his body mass.

He starts cutting on Sunday, a four day cut for weigh-ins. On Wednesday Sherk was 161 pounds already and feeling fantastic so he's not going to have any problems with the rest of the cut.

He says he's much more comfortable fighting at 155 and its a much more normal weight for him. It lets him walk around at 175 and cut the 20 pounds the week of the fight, and then re-hydrate back up nicely. He's got the cutting ability like Franklin, so you're going to see a monster Sherk come in for this fight.

He did two practice runs cutting all the way down to 155. The first was harder but he said the second was cake. And the third obviously was really easy if he was already 161 on Wednesday.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the analysis. Awesome as always.

I laughed my ass off when I saw this, "Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets." It is just a touch misleading [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Happy to share, as always.

I thought about saying "1-0 on crazy all-in bets, +a lot of units" but figured I'd just let it go [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]You were like Barry Sanders in the end zone. You just acted like you have been there many times before [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[goodsamaritan]

They just had the weighins. Everyone made weight and Sherk looked pretty energetic at 154.5.

[wiper]

performify...i'm assuming you don't mind if i repost all this on another forum??

sports betting thread over there, and there's about 4 or 5 of us that keep it going..and they're all asking about ufc since i've started posting my own picks, so in lieu of me, an amateur, posting my thoughts, i figured i'd hook 'em up with the professional opinion...

[bigalt]

why not just direct them here?

[Performify]

As long as you at least link to my blog in the picks, i'm fine with it.

But as BigAlt said you can certainly just direct them here (or just direct them to my blog, whatever)

-P