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#1
10-10-2006, 07:08 AM
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variance
lately ive been thinking a lot about variance, specifically how do i know im a winning player and i havent just been running lucky. theoretically variance can swing 1 way or the other for an almost infinite number of hands. my career of 500 to 600k hands is small when u think of this way. ive been trying to think what seperates a winning player from a losing player or a marginal winner from a bigger winner. the difference between a regular and a 60/5 is obvious, but when comparing regulars to regulars are we all the same skill level just waiting for our turn to get lucky? how can any of us be sure that we are actually winners and not just running good?
also posted in msnl, but i think it can be a good discussion 
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#2
10-10-2006, 07:44 AM
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Re: variance
1) Play limit short-handed for a living.
2) Realize there is no variance in no-limit. 3) ????? 4) Profit.
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#3
10-10-2006, 07:56 AM
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Re: variance
variance is way less important in no limit than limit (less true if you multitable). Hand reading, knowing the basic odds, playing either solid preflop hands or being a good post-flop player, watching the other players and how they play beats variance in importance hands down.
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#4
10-10-2006, 10:44 AM
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Re: variance
I don't think diebitter actually plays poker. I can't understand any of what he just said (or I could but it is grossly wrong / irrelevant).
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#6
10-10-2006, 11:20 AM
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Re: variance
[ QUOTE ]
variance is a state of fact in limit, a state of mind in NL. [/ QUOTE ] O rly? So, I guess, villain hitting their flush draw the last 7/10 times after flop push is also just a state of mind, eh? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#8
10-10-2006, 11:28 AM
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Re: variance
Variance is not as essential in nl as it is in limit poker. limit is more of a scientific game as opposed to feel game.A good nl player can lay down trips when he knows the villan got there, but also can call call with Ace high when you sniff a bluff.not only specific to those situations, but you get my drift. that is really the differance. hearing your gut tell you your best and actually listen. letting your brain tell you your beat when you thought you had the best and its only second best. hand reading ability cannot be taught it has to be learned by experience. a good player lets loosing races fall behind them like winnig
hands do. this of is just my opinion and has probably been said to you a million times. but i really belive that this is the key to success in this game.
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#9
10-10-2006, 11:36 AM
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Re: variance
Imagine in a parallel universe the most infinitely bad NL player.
He wouldn't suffer variance. He'd just lose all his money, sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly. But always losing. So surely the same principal must aply going the other way.
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