Downsing duration?

manub · #1 10-03-2006, 12:46 PM

Hello,

I'm a regular multitabler on Pokerstars and play for a living. I usually play NL 200 shorthanded on 12 tables. I've been doing that the past two months at about a rate of 65K hands / month.

So far, my results have shown a nice and okay winning rate: 3.00 BB/100 hands. That's not *amazing*, but I play a lot of hands to compensate. Of course I've had quite a few losing streaks, but those never lasted over 2k or 3k hands, and I was never down over 5 buy-ins without having a recovery period immediatly after. Now, that's over a 130K hands sample, which sounds (to me) pretty reliable.

My last 12K hands have been insane. I'll spare you the bad beat stories, you know what I mean. I'm not down by much (12 buyins), and my bankroll is still very healthy so I'm not worried, but that kind of variance defies what I have experienced so far (I've been playing poker for two years only). My game hasn't changed much - I'm still a pretty tight/solid player (24%/6%).

I just want a better understanding of NL variance at these levels. My early results led to me believe that I could not face such an extended bad run at these lower limits, looks like I was wrong...

Can experienced players on this forum help me understand what's going on? How long can a downsing like that last? Is it possible to experience the same with an upswing?

Thanks,
Manub

Autocratic · #2 10-03-2006, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

I'm a regular multitabler on Pokerstars and play for a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have some bad news.

manub · #3 10-03-2006, 12:50 PM

Oh, don't worry about me, I'm not an american citizen. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(and I believe that the fish is an International creature).

Flintoff · #4 10-03-2006, 01:11 PM

There is something seriously wrong if you are playing for a living and asking these questions.

I don't know of any pro who plays 24/6 either...

mdkrahn · #5 10-03-2006, 01:12 PM

meh,
I'll be the first to say it,

move up where they respect your raises.

CaptainBusto · #6 10-03-2006, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
meh,
I'll be the first to say it,

move up where they respect your raises.

[/ QUOTE ]
"raise preflop" also applies here.

J-Mac · #7 10-03-2006, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

I'm a regular multitabler on Pokerstars and play for a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have some bad news.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason, this made me lol.

Phoenix1010 · #8 10-03-2006, 03:46 PM

When you're not that much better than your average opponent a "downswing" can last a long time.

pnoles · #9 10-08-2006, 03:56 AM

Manub, you don't play sngs anymore?

The Velour Fog · #10 10-08-2006, 04:39 AM

i cant even imagine how it feels to play 12 tables 6 max.. i would recomend cutting down a few tables and up your agression a bit (limping AQ wtf?!). if nothing else it will feel somewhat diferent and maybe get you out of your coldstretch, and i dare say you will become a better player.