Rip my logic cause I'm a newbie

[Propping Fool]

btw I think if it wasnt for vilemerchant's post, this idea of mine would have been shotdown by trolls a long time ago.

[27offsuit]

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We just had a thread the other week about the huge ML favourites in college football (-5000 or more). It turned out the record over the last few seasons was 256-1 or something like that, which is pretty good going for the favourites. Would only take one or two games gone wrong to get some incredible variance tho.

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I wonder if taking out any games where the dog was home would help?

If you had balls and a healthy BR for variance that will probably never happen, you could probably make a ton doing this.

You're just betting 5000 to win 100 a lot.






Also, never watch the games. You would get an ulcer.

[Homer]

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btw I think if it wasnt for vilemerchant's post, this idea of mine would have been shotdown by trolls a long time ago.

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Very few people are trolling in this thread. I count one.

Most people are just entirely convinced that blindly betting heavy favorites is -EV.

[Propping Fool]

I'm a man and can admit when I was wrong. I was wrong about the Colts line. I was clearly thinking of a different game. sorry bad example. I was wrong.

please focus on my idea and provide statistical reasoning when shooting me down.

I am an expert limit player and can shoot down newbie ideas with ease by using math, pure and simple. I was hoping you guys would do the same to me here. Seems like the only person to offer any kind of statisics actually backed me up.

[rjp]

If you have a positive expectation with a large money line bet then it's likely you have a positive expectation with the point spread, too. In most cases you have a higher expected return by laying the points over the money line.

There's nothing wrong with taking large money lines, but you also run into the issue of being able to take the money lines over a large number of games, which is the only way to sustain through natural fluctuations.

Make sure you run the numbers, of course, but even if you figure the Colts win 100% of the time your edge on the posted money line of -1900 is ~5.26%. If you truly feel the Colts never lose this game then make the bet.

Do, however, use a solid money management plan in which you risk 1 to win X, not X to win 1. This is the trap most bettors fall into, as one loss cripples their bankroll. Laying 1 to win X will allow you to sustain through a losing streak that will happen. Losses against large money lines are tough to mentally overcome, because it does take time to build back up.

Slow and steady wins the race.

[primetime32]

First off, college ML's tend to be a lower in your example because college games tend to be a little less predictable for obvious reasons. So when a team in college is favored by 9.5 to 11 or so the lines will tend be from -475 to -575.

in the pros the -10 lines tend to be at around 600 higher because they are easier to predict a winner. Most pro games are tighter contests which is why the spreads tend to be a little lower in comparison to the college contests of equal ML value.

As for making money in your system, lets go with this hypo. If you could find 15 games with ML faves at -666. You would be able to place 15 wagers to win 100 on each. If you go 13-2 in those 15 wagers you would lose about 330 dollars. You would need to go 14-1 to make about 720 dollars.

Now i understand that you are looking at more of the -750 and higher games but the general principal still applies and that is you need to avoid any type of bad streak to make a small profit.

And lets not forget that vegas knows that most people like the big ml faves so they are rarely going to give you generous odds on these games. If anything you will run into more -ev lines than you can imagine.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
please focus on my idea and provide statistical reasoning when shooting me down.

I am an expert limit player and can shoot down newbie ideas with ease by using math, pure and simple. I was hoping you guys would do the same to me here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Take the -1900 Colts game. The theory is that the books knows the Colts are over valued by the public. So they might think the TRUE line is....say -1800. But they know the public loves Indy so they shade it to -1900. I have no idea to what extent they shade the lines, but this is why FADING the public should, in theory, work better.

[Thremp]

Bet every College spread of -27 and higher on ML. Put your whole roll on it.

[MyTurn2Raise]

college thread that came up last week

[beetman]

Not necessarily. Even though the public loves big favorites, they don't like risking a lot. In terms of payouts (i.e. ignoring the point spread), the public often likes the longshots. The public gets around the "risking a lot" element by parlaying the big favorites, but when the favorites aren't parlay-able, you'll sometimes find value in the chalk. For example, with a lot of the YES/NO type Super Bowl props, the value lies in the chalky NO.

If you really saw Colts -900 I'd bet that in a heartbeat.