a rock question (show me how smart you are)

[stinkypete]

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This is a cool, new concept to me. If someone wins the pot with the rock in it, does that person have to post the rock again as well?

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yes, when they are UTG

[stinkypete]

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The amount is clearly less than $200 since you cannot be selective with your hand. I would guess that the rock is worth around $50 AT MOST. I think these figures over $100 are not even close.

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i think you're right.

[DpR]

Yes, if you have the rock, you must straddle the next time you are UTG.

[brick]

What percentage of the time would you guess the pot is 3-bet when the rock is posted?

What percentage 4-bet?
and just cold-called all the way around?

--for example --
When it's 2-bet the rock is probably worth .75 of full value.
When 4-bet it's worth almost nothing.
When 3-bet maybe .3 (?)

So if it's cold called 50%, 3-bet 40%. Then
.5*.75 + .4*.3 = .375 + .12 =.495 ~ $100

[DpR]

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What percentage of the time would you guess the pot is 3-bet when the rock is posted?

What percentage 4-bet?
and just cold-called all the way around?

[/ QUOTE ]

100%
50%
0%

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
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What percentage of the time would you guess the pot is 3-bet when the rock is posted?

What percentage 4-bet?
and just cold-called all the way around?

[/ QUOTE ]

100%
50%
0%

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That's really aggro.

Because it's so agro I'm going to modify my assumptions a little:
When 4-bet ~ .1 of full value
When 3-bet ~ .4 of full value


.5*.1 + .5*.4 = .25 ~ $50

[elindauer]

If someone posted your big blind for you, it would be worth .3 SB (you lose .2 posting it, so you gain .3 playing it after it's posted). If someone posted a straddle for you, it would be worth... what? At worst, it's worth .6 SB, but when you note that the extra money in the pot allows you to play more hands, you should see that it's worth even more.

Call it, say, 2/3 of a big bet in EV.

So, that's the answer, assuming you are willing to walk away having posted once and won the pot. However, if you won't leave having won the rock, then you have to subtract from your EV the fact that winning this pot obligates you to make a -EV bet in the future.

What's the EV cost of posting the rock? Following the analysis above, we'll call it 1/3 of a big bet. What's the probability that you will actually win the hand where you post the rock? Hrmmm... hard to say. Pokertracker tells me that I win about 30% of all hands I play from BB, so I'll go with that.

EV of the rock = EV gain of having a straddle posted - EV lost to reposting rock if you win it.

EV of the rock = 2/3 BB - .3 * -1/3 BB ~= $110

I've made a lot of assumptions here though, I can probably only say with any certainty that it's around $100.

-Eric

[brick]

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Guys, I think what he's asking is this:

You have the rock, which means you'll have to post $200 next time you're UTG. How much would you be willing to sell the rock for? Certainly if someone offers you $195 for it, you should jump at the chance to sell it. Personally, I'd take $150 for it (i.e. I'd give you the $200 rock in my posession for $150, and let YOU post the rock on your next turn).

So by figuring out the minimum price that should be accepted for rock, is what the rock is worth. Am I understanding you correctly, OP?

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I believe that's one way to phrase his question.

Another way to think of it is this. When the rock is in the pot how much is it worth in real $ value so we can add this to the actual size of the pot.

Some things to think about. (not you Lestat, just in general) It's going to give you a free ride into a future pot (or 2/3 of the way there), but you'll be in bad position. An average player who posts a big blind will get about 70% of the value back. In other words they will lose .15 BB per hand, but they posted .5 BB so the value of a the big blind, if someone were to post it for you, is .35/.5 = 70%

Using this data we can assume the rock is worth more than 70% of it's value when the pot is only 2-bet perflop.

[DcifrThs]

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Guys, I think what he's asking is this:

You have the rock, which means you'll have to post $200 next time you're UTG. How much would you be willing to sell the rock for? Certainly if someone offers you $195 for it, you should jump at the chance to sell it. Personally, I'd take $150 for it (i.e. I'd give you the $200 rock in my posession for $150, and let YOU post the rock on your next turn).

So by figuring out the minimum price that should be accepted for rock, is what the rock is worth. Am I understanding you correctly, OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that's one way to phrase his question.

Another way to think of it is this. When the rock is in the pot how much is it worth in real $ value so we can add this to the actual size of the pot.

Some things to think about. (not you Lestat, just in general) It's going to give you a free ride into a future pot (or 2/3 of the way there), but you'll be in bad position. An average player who posts a big blind will get about 70% of the value back. In other words they will lose .15 BB per hand, but they posted .5 BB so the value of a the big blind, if someone were to post it for you, is .35/.5 = 70%

Using this data we can assume the rock is worth more than 70% of it's value when the pot is only 2-bet perflop.

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your assertion that somebody who posts the bb gets 70% of it's value in a 2 bet pot etc. is only when they get to keep the money should they win the pot. they dont in this case.

Barron

[stinkypete]

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If someone posted your big blind for you, it would be worth .3 SB (you lose .2 posting it, so you gain .3 playing it after it's posted). If someone posted a straddle for you, it would be worth... what? At worst, it's worth .6 BB, but when you note that the extra money in the pot allows you to play more hands, you should see that it's worth even more.

Call it, say, 2/3 of a big bet in EV.

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i think you're overestimating this slightly. people tend to get very aggressive in rock pots, and you'll be facing 3 or 4 bets most of the time. your effective odds are also worse than they seem, since the rock isn't worth even close to a big bet. i'd go with .6BB here, but that's admittedly not based on a deep analysis.

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So, that's the answer, assuming you are willing to walk away having posted once and won the pot. However, if you won't leave having won the rock, then you have to subtract from your EV the fact that winning this pot obligates you to make a -EV bet in the future.

What's the EV cost of posting the rock? Following the analysis above, we'll call it 1/3 of a big bet.


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isn't the "EV cost" here just $200 - (value of rock)? so about $100 based on your analysis. it's a recursive problem so its a bit of a bitch to solve without clearly defined values.

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What's the probability that you will actually win the hand where you post the rock? Hrmmm... hard to say. Pokertracker tells me that I win about 30% of all hands I play from BB, so I'll go with that.

EV of the rock = EV gain of having a straddle posted - EV lost to reposting rock if you win it.

EV of the rock = 2/3 BB - .3 * -1/3 BB ~= $110

I've made a lot of assumptions here though, I can probably only say with any certainty that it's around $100.

-Eric

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you're also not subtracting the value of your hand UTG when you don't have to post anything.

i think you're on the right track, but i think if you go into more detail you'll find that it's significantly below $100.