Thin All-in Call? 50nl 6max - Page 3

108 · #1 09-23-2006, 01:42 AM

Edit: Grunching, I didn't realise you'd already posted the results.

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming villain has an overpair, can I call this All in.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop

UTG ($53.76)
MP ($57.57)
Hero ($40.25)
SB ($80.55)
BB ($45.66)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB (poster) raises to $1.75, BB calls $1.50, MP folds, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB calls $78.55 (All-In), BB folds, Hero.......................

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally like to be the one who's doing the b3b all-in, or c/r ai here. Feel like flipping for stacks? Call then.

I don't completely buy the line that this is a random misclick however.

testaaja · #2 09-23-2006, 03:49 AM

It's time to gamboooool

tubasteve · #3 09-23-2006, 04:09 AM

If I had to guess you are about 50/50 vs any decent range villain could have, so by folding your EV is $0 and by calling it is $6.50 * 50% = $3.25.

This is pretty large edge if you consider that even a 10ptbb/100 winner at NL50 makes $10/100 hands for $0.10 a hand. Here the EV of calling is 32.5x that.

Pokey or some other math geek correct me if I'm wrong in my logic here.

Jouster777 · #4 09-23-2006, 07:10 AM

Pokerstove says we have 46% equity here against QQ+,JdJs,AhKh (see below).

EV = .46(85)-.54(78.5)=-$3.29

Looks like a fold unless we think there's a significant likelihood he's making a play.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.016 secs 1,237,500 games/sec

Board: 2h 4h Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.2929 % 46.29% 00.00% { Jh9h }
Hand 2: 53.7071 % 53.71% 00.00% { QQ+, JdJs, AhKh }