Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.

[worm33]

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Thats why it's progressive.

Bet the series to win 10k if yanks win otherwise you move on.

If you lose no worries. Win hedge the next series.

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I think we are prolly looking to lock up a little more. So say the Twins play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. 5 game series Matsui back Santana starting 2. The Twins are going to be in games 3 and 4 at home with Bonser and Radke/Garza. Versus a combo of Mussina Lidle Wang? Seems like the Twins would only be +120 or so for the series but that just cant seem right when the Yankees are +130 to win the pennant.

[Homer]

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not to threadcrap here, but 40-1 on the twins to win the pennant was really -EV on june 25. that said, congrats on having this problem in the first place.

though you can short on tradesports, they don't really deal the volume you'd need, although i assume that would improve come playoff time. wsex is a better option for some of it, but you'd still need a lot of money to pull it off, like 75-80% of the hedge amount.

re: the liriano injury, the books have already reacted and adjusted their lines. in particular, the yankees' futures payoffs dropped quickly.

i'd line shop between now and october 3rd and bet the best lines i can find on each team. this may require opening a bunch of online sportsbook accounts, but that just means more bonus money, right?

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They were not -ev on june 25th. Do you see why?

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This is gonna go off on a big tangent in a minute when others respond to this, but...

On June 25th, I'm sure reasonable estimates had them at higher than 40-1 to make the WS, meaning a 40-1 bet is -EV.

What you're saying is kind of like taking 4-1 on guessing on the roll of a die, someone saying it's -EV and you saying "no it wasn't, bc I won".

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Obviously I did a little bit of research on this before I made a $1600 bet. At the time of the bet the Twins were out 11.0 of div and 9.5 of WC if I recall. Pinny had them at +3000 to win the AL pennat and I felt they should have been more like +1800-2100 as they were by far the best team in baseball.

I was going to bet them on Pinnacle the next day but I was in Vegas for the WSOP and walked into the MGM Grand sportsbook. The Twins were 40-1 to win the Pennant. I said well thats cool. I scan down the sheet. The Indians are 12-1 to win the AL Pennant. Well On June 25th the Twins were up 6 games on the Indians and had gained about 10 games in 15 days. GG MGM Grand.


Edited to fix #'s on the games up on CLE and back of CHI DET

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Fair enough. I thought you using the term EV incorrectly at first.

[worm33]

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Funds are not a problem online or in vegas. It will just be hard to do it online because:

3 different people have this bet. Real money no strings is worth a lot more than online money. It will be hard to split it up.

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This should make it easier, actually, if only you want to hedge. Just pretend you have $533 at 40-1 and take care of hedging your portion of the bet. It doesn't change the fact that if this cashes, you'll get 1/3 of the payout.




I should mention I have $1000 to win 40k and my buddies have 300 each to each win 12k. Good problem to have though.

[Thremp]

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Thats why it's progressive.

Bet the series to win 10k if yanks win otherwise you move on.

If you lose no worries. Win hedge the next series.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think we are prolly looking to lock up a little more. So say the Twins play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. 5 game series Matsui back Santana starting 2. The Twins are going to be in games 3 and 4 at home with Bonser and Radke/Garza. Versus a combo of Mussina Lidle Wang? Seems like the Twins would only be +120 or so for the series but that just cant seem right when the Yankees are +130 to win the pennant.

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The put all the action you want on the Yanks. Since they're locked up. I think they'll start Mussina/Wang/Johnson/Wright(Maybe Lidle?)

BTW Santana just got lit up by the Indians and lost to a guy with a 6.5 ERA, Carmona, I wouldn't mark his two starts as wins esp against Mussina and/or Wang.

[worm33]

Nah I was just being an ass to the guy who was wrong. Im sensitive about the Twins Haha. I was called dumb by 50 different people from June 25th for about 3 weeks. Than they stopped calling me dumb.

[Thremp]

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Nah I was just being an ass to the guy who was wrong. Im sensitive about the Twins Haha. I was called dumb by 50 different people from June 25th for about 3 weeks. Then they stopped calling me dumb.

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You're not helping yourself.

[worm33]

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Thats why it's progressive.

Bet the series to win 10k if yanks win otherwise you move on.

If you lose no worries. Win hedge the next series.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think we are prolly looking to lock up a little more. So say the Twins play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. 5 game series Matsui back Santana starting 2. The Twins are going to be in games 3 and 4 at home with Bonser and Radke/Garza. Versus a combo of Mussina Lidle Wang? Seems like the Twins would only be +120 or so for the series but that just cant seem right when the Yankees are +130 to win the pennant.

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The put all the action you want on the Yanks. Since they're locked up. I think they'll start Mussina/Wang/Johnson/Wright(Maybe Lidle?)

BTW Santana just got lit up by the Indians and lost to a guy with a 6.5 ERA, Carmona, I wouldn't mark his two starts as wins esp against Mussina and/or Wang.

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Oh Im not locking up those wins in Yankee Stadium at all. I was merely saying the Twins will not be a big favorite in any game even with Santana pitching. If the pitching rotation looks how you said I would expect the lines to be about:

Santana (-115) VS Mussina
Silva VS Wang (-175)
Johnson (-125) VS Bonser
Lidle VS Garza As close to even money as it gets
Santana (-115) VS Mussina

What does that expect the series price to be? Just cant be anymore than yankees -130.

[worm33]

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Nah I was just being an ass to the guy who was wrong. Im sensitive about the Twins Haha. I was called dumb by 50 different people from June 25th for about 3 weeks. Then they stopped calling me dumb.

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You're not helping yourself.

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Ha when I dropped out of college 3 years ago to bet to win 66k on the Twins I forgot how to spell.

[Thremp]

I don't know if the lines you posted would be very accurate. Maybe on neutral ground, but I expect home field to have a more significant edge.

But meh.. I mean its upto you how to hedge. I'm just telling you what I'd do. Maybe hope it goes to a game 5 and bet the farm on Yankees there?

[TheRover]

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BTW Santana just got lit up by the Indians and lost to a guy with a 6.5 ERA, Carmona, I wouldn't mark his two starts as wins esp against Mussina and/or Wang.

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What? That could never happen.