is the poker boom winding down, market nearing cap?

[olivert]

[ QUOTE ]
Obv I'd love there to be a few million more people playing online poker wherever they live but the average wage in China is around $2500. How many people in China can afford to put $100 onto Party and how many of them would even want to?

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if one out of 1000 people in China were to put up USD$125 (1000 Yuan) for a 1-in-100 chance to advance via an online satellite, then China alone will qualify 13,000 players to a $10,000 buy-in poker tournament.

Can the top 0.1% income bracket in China be able to afford to blow USD$125? The answer 5 years ago was no, but the answer now going forward is yes.

Poker is a niche activity, even in the U.S. where only 1 out of 200 or so people, or about 1.5 million people, play poker or watch TV poker regularly.

The poker industry only need to hook 1 out of 1000 people in China in order to get 1.3 million people playing Texas Hold'em or watching TV poker in China.

[BriMc]

Olivert, since your ability to accurately predict the future is so good, can you please give me the lottery numbers for the next few weeks? I'd like to retire. Thanks.

[DcifrThs]

your analysis is flawed on a few levels. unless you know the culture of the area on which youd like to base predictions, saying things like "1/1000 need to be hooked" is silly.

now people like those you mentioned may know the culture and:

- the ability of the citizenry targeted for online poker to access the internet and have the free time necessary to do so on a regular basis.

- the acceptability among that group of depositing money online in offshore accts

- the laws that will regulate these deposits and howt hey reflect int he eyes of the target market

- the actual disposable income of those targeted.

- the way in which families view participation in an activity such as online gambling.

there are other cultural and demographic characteristics that are important to the analysis, but you currently sound like a telemarketer or pyramid scheme person w/ your logic.

Barron

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that I am HATED by a number of people for the way I view where the industry is headed, but that's the nature of this business.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not hated, but you simply ignore many of the demographic, social, and technical problems present in China that need to be addressed before any serious market proposal is done. if you were to get into intelligent debate on these topics (like dcifrths and others have pointed out on numerous occasions), instead of just using your opinions and the opinions of others, you would sound more reliable.

also, Steve Lispcomb better hope poker in China takes off - his 2 online poker attempts have failed, and his profit in the US has dried up. I'm certain this has affected his judgement and actions.

also, business routinely takes stabs at new markets and products. the existence of these stabs are far, far from guarantees of their ultimate success - they are simply risks that in the opinion of the business are +EV. failure is routine

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
Obv I'd love there to be a few million more people playing online poker wherever they live but the average wage in China is around $2500. How many people in China can afford to put $100 onto Party and how many of them would even want to?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably a very small proportion, but when you start at 1 billion or so, you don't need a high percentage. My friend married a Chinese girl and everytime she visits, she is surprised by the development there. China isn't as poor as it used to be and the coastal areas contain a fairly large middle class.

It will be cool if it does happen. I figure our college kids playing online could pay for a couple of years worth of Walmart imports, before the Chinese get better. Or are they going to be segregated so they can't play us?

FWIW I went to a bookstore today. 6 months ago they had a whole shelf out front, dedicated to poker. Now, it is a general games section including golf, chess and roulette?!?, with poker only making up around 50% of the selection.

[olivert]

[ QUOTE ]
your analysis is flawed on a few levels. unless you know the culture of the area on which youd like to base predictions, saying things like "1/1000 need to be hooked" is silly.

now people like those you mentioned may know the culture and:

- the ability of the citizenry targeted for online poker to access the internet and have the free time necessary to do so on a regular basis.

- the acceptability among that group of depositing money online in offshore accts

- the laws that will regulate these deposits and howt hey reflect int he eyes of the target market

- the actual disposable income of those targeted.

- the way in which families view participation in an activity such as online gambling.

there are other cultural and demographic characteristics that are important to the analysis, but you currently sound like a telemarketer or pyramid scheme person w/ your logic.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI:

I was born in Hong Kong, I speak Cantonese, and I still consume Chinese-language media, including listening to Cantonese-language newscasts regularly, even though I left Hong Kong 28 years ago.

Enough mainland Chinese already:

1. Travel to Macau to play Baccarat and Sic Bo during Chinese holiday periods

2. Play online Mah Jong, Baccarat, 7-Card Chinese Poker (Pai Gow Poker), and 13-Card Chinese Poker online for points and prizes (though not legally for cash)

3. Bet on horse races in Hong Kong, dog races in Macau, and English Premier League (EPL) soccer matches they watch on ESPN China and STAR SPORTS China every weekend (much of that betting activity is not legal in China.)

The skeptics who don't believe that Texas Hold'em will work in China keep coming up with China's GDP and the average income of a mainland Chinese worker as their reasons.

I have said that those numbers are largely irrelevant when the western gaming industry is only looking to hook 1 out of every 1000 mainland Chinese residents so that a pool of 1.3 million mainland Chinese residents will play western-style gambling tournaments such as poker and blackjack, as well as Chinese-style gambling tournaments such as Mah Jong, regularly (i.e. at least once a week.)

I know for certain that more than 1 out of every 1000 mainland Chinese residents watch English Premier League (EPL) soccer matches on ESPN China and STAR SPORTS China every Saturday and Sunday night, and that a sizable fraction of that group actually bet on EPL matches using offshore online betting shops such as MANSION and 888.com (formerly Pacific Poker).

888.com even has a simplified Chinese-language website targeting Mainland Chinese who see the 888.com ad boards during EPL telecasts and the 888.com logo on the jerseys of the players of EPL club Middlesbrough FC.

I have it on good authority that the Israelis who owned what used to be known as Pacific Poker deliberately chose a Chinese-language brand in 888.com because they want the China market.

(MANSION is also using EPL in ambush marketing to China, as MANSION is the jersey sponsor of EPL club Tottenham Hotspur FC. MANSION did try to sign a jersey sponsorship deal for EPL mega-club Manchester United FC, but Manchester United's American owner Malcolm Glazer had to back away from that deal due to fear of prosecution by the U.S. Department of Justice.)

[Lawman007]

So Olivert is Chinese? Ok, I get the obsession now, but it's still quite bizarre. LOL

[bk1]

hey

just be serious~

do you think any of those people who play poker ever gonna quit poker?

hell no!

this game is so addictive that we all gonna have to play it for the rest of our lives!!

if the poker world keep current poker populations, it is as big as NHL or maybe NASCAR!!

so no more skeptisicm~~~

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
The skeptics who don't believe that Texas Hold'em will work in China keep coming up with China's GDP and the average income of a mainland Chinese worker as their reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is also the issue of people owning home computers, home internet access, and easily usable electronic payment systems

[DarthIgnurnt]

[ QUOTE ]
I have said that those numbers are largely irrelevant when the western gaming industry is only looking to hook 1 out of every 1000 mainland Chinese residents so that a pool of 1.3 million mainland Chinese residents will play western-style gambling tournaments such as poker and blackjack ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, if the 0.1% they hook happens to correlate exactly with the top incomes on mainland China ...

In 2001, to be in the top 1% of income on mainland China, you needed to earn about 8000 USD. Certainly this amount is higher now, but the disparity between high and low income has also increased during this time.

It sounds so simple to get "1 out of 1000" mainland Chinese, but since 95%+ are simply not relevant from a disposable income perspective, the real goal is more like 1 out of 50 mainland Chinese with relevant income levels. (and that's a generous estimate).

Not impossible, but not nearly as academic as you imply.

And please stop using the fact that Johnny Chan is interested as any kind of evidence of anything.