NL25: 96s and a combo draw -- Oops!

[Nick C]

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I really want to emphasise that a pair and low FD is not nearly as strong as people seem to think it is, especially in a multiway basically limped pot. Its so easy to be up against a higher pair and a higher FD and have close to 0 equity.

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FWIW, the pot isn't that multiway. Only three people saw this flop.

[Keyser.]

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isn't it 1600 for Pooh Bah Keysor ? - if so you're safe for a bit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Wheww, good to hear it. I almost pulled a Pokey.

Anyway, about the hand in question, I think I had a similar discussion with dbitel's alter-ego. The fact that this pot is multi-way does make a raise somewhat less attractive.

I just think, in general, it's good poker to take the lead/be the aggressor in spots like this. Perhaps not at 25NL, but against the right opponents you have a non-trivial amount of folding equity against hands like 77-TT, plus there is a certain advantage to winning the pot ASAP against a hand like AK.

In this spot 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] has 50% equity against something like two red kings. IMO, raising the turn gives you the control of the hand, which allows you to either get paid off on a spade, 6, or 9 turn/river, and other times allows you to win the pot unimproved, such as when you're against something like TT and you fire at an A or other overcard turn.

Basically all I’m saying is that it’s better to raise than to call in spots like this where you have a good amount of pot equity (which I admit is better heads-up, because you can’t be a huge dog against one opponent on this flop but you can be multi-way).

[Dan Bitel]

KS,

vs. a 49/18/1.6, I'm pretty sure you have exactly 0 FE vs 77+.

And to be honest, I'd rather NOT win the pot right now vs AK. If you take into account the times he 2 barrels UI, the times the A/K spades hits by the river and the times when you hit and he hits (but not on the same card) then I think its better to keep AK (and that obv goes for any 2 overs) around rather than to blow them away to protect vs 4-5 outs.

You say a few other thigs that worry me KS, ie. [ QUOTE ]
In this spot 69 has 50% equity against something like two red kings. IMO, raising the turn gives you the control of the hand, which allows you to either get paid off on a spade, 6, or 9 turn/river, and other times allows you to win the pot unimproved, such as when you're against something like TT and you fire at an A or other overcard turn.


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Firstly, I'm going to presume you mean raise the flop, not the turn.

Now, 1stly, you'll find that most players will just push on this flop with KK rather than call, and I'd a lot rather have a line that does bewtter than get all my money in on a 50/50 and no FE.

And as for control of the hand making it easier to get paid off, this seems 100% backwards to me. Why do you think that showing strength on the flop and then more strength on a dangerous turn will help us get paid off? Not to mention, you are losing your implied odds of cource by putting more $$ in on the flop.

Lastly, you say that you plan to win teh pot UI presuming they just call by bluffing a A turn or w/e. Well this goes against the raising for a free card principle that you were talking about earlier. Not to mention, that if we just call flop, an overcard to his PP, is still a scare card, and will a lot of the time buy you 2 cards for the price on one

[Keyser.]

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Now, 1stly, you'll find that most players will just push on this flop with KK rather than call, and I'd a lot rather have a line that does bewtter than get all my money in on a 50/50 and no FE.

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Okay, I agree with most of what you say and I'm probably on the losing side of this argument. But for one thing, I really don't think most players at this level b/3b AI with KK. In my experience at the lower limits, no one ever b/3b. They just don’t do that.

It's kinda hard to explain why I think raising the flop is best (yeah I meant flop) because it's just my personal preference to take the lead and then change my line on the turn depending on different cards, opponent's tendencies, etc. I think you'll be hard pressed to prove that calling > raising in general, even though I'm having a hard time articulating why I believe that.