standard calldown vs LAG?

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks to me like you're using anti-maniac strategy when it's not really justified. I wouldn't handle this situation much differently than I would against a TAG who understands blind play.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll run all over you if you play him like a TAG. 53.6/21.8/7.53 is near-maniacal, and is completely maniacal postflop. Since this is a HU blind battle, his preflop stats are going to take a big jump as well. Treating this guy as a lag is pretty much close to optimal imo.

[Heisenb3rg]

[ QUOTE ]
Heisenb3rg (or anyone else for that matter),

I have a question about this math...

[ QUOTE ]
I ran poker stove against Any Pair, A6o+, A6s+, Any broadway
This is 22.8% of hands. This is probabily on the loose side of his range.
Your equity is 35.0%. I also toyed around with some other preflop combinations that are a little tighter and your equity is around 28%-35% given most semi-loose ranges.

Your effective odds are around 1:2.6 which makes it a definite call down against this range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been wondering lately how to calculate the EV of our hand based on estimated equity. It looks like you're comparing pokerstove equity to effective odds? So in this case, we're planning on putting 2.5BBs (flop/turn/river) into a pot that looks like it will end up being 7bb..

so, 7/2.5 = 2.8 (now putting this result into odds, wouldn't it be 1.8-1 rather than the 2.6-1 you suggested?

I assume that if his range gives him ~23% equity that means we need better than ~4-1 effective odds to breakeven? Also, do we take our own equity into account anywhere in the calcs? I'm probably way, way off, but I need to start somewhere..

Plz feel free to correct me anywhere and everywhere - I suck at math and am just trying desperately to grasp this stuff.

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey mossberg,
just some help with the math.

The pot at the flop is 4BB,
Calling down will cost 2.5BB (flop+turn+river)
your oppponent will match those 2.5BB

That means your effective odds are 6.5:2.5
(You are risking 2.5BB to win 6.5BB)

I find it easier to think in terms of X:1 type odds, so I just divided both sides of the odds by 2.5.

6.5/2.5 = 2.6
2.5/2.5 = 1

2.6:1 is the exact same as 6.5:2.5

To convert this to the "probability needed to win to break even" It's the second number divided by (the first + the second number).

so 1/(1+2.6) or 2.5/ (2.5+6.5)

so I take 1/3.6 which equals 27.8%, you have to win 27.8% of the time in order for a call down to be correct if these are the odds.

I think the theory of poker has a good explanation on the derivation of this I just know this from high school finite mathematics.

Of course these are your expressed odds assuming your opponent will always bet every street. If your opponent checks anywhere it changes your odds slightly.