hi i'm mr. weak tight, and now i have a decision to make

[jskinn04]

dot- I can't see ever calling this river. His range on the flop is pretty much flush draws, Ax where x matches the board, sets, TPNK w/ a SC or S1-gap. After he checks behind on the turn his range is still almost the same but gutshots and sets get faded b/c gutshots wanna bluff and sets wanna protect. On the river he pretty much never bets TPNK so all that is really left is hands that filled on the river and gutshots, which are a small part of his range.

[Heine]

he was checked to twice. anyone else think he's betting any two cards?

[Dot_the_Bot]

which is why checking the turn is not the optimal line, betting the turn is.

these are the kinds of considerations we use to decide. But, in a metagame sense, if you are checking the turn to induce a bluff, you need to call the river in the overwhelming amount of situaitons- or the check on the turn is pointless.

Ill say it like this: if you are checking to induce a bluff, and then folding to a bet, for the love of gawd, stop inducing bluffs.

[servitup]

I think he is betting any 2 in that situation but I also think that unless he is a maniac or owns you, which I have no reason to believe, that any 2 cards he would have at that point in the hand have you beat. My guess is that he had KQ hearts unless he is a maniac in which case he may have A8 soooooted. Your big raise from the small blind there should fold out anything aside from a middle-high pair, high sooted connectors, or AK. I doubt with his stats (I know, sample size is small) that he would limp call a big raise like that without a pair or a hand like KQ sooted. From his viewpoint, you have a really narrow range to play that way from the SB. Then you slow down on the turn and he takes his free card because he doesn't have the set but he does have the flush draw. Unless he is crazy, I think he has the flush and my guess is KQ of hearts because it is the only hand that makes sense that he could reasonably think was profitable to play against your raise in position.

[Dot_the_Bot]

[ QUOTE ]
he was checked to twice. anyone else think he's betting any two cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is not that he wouldnt bet two cards that they are debating...it is about WHAT WOULD HE check behind with? Anything besides a draw (which seems to have got there) or a hand that beat you prior to the river anyway, is unlikely.

that was why there was so much discussion going about if you should call a turn raise if you opt to lead..because some saw merit to the line if you were also doing it to shrink the pot vs. hands you are behind: i.e. get to showdown, coupled with the likliehood that opponent would will bluff a busted draw.

in which case- you fold the river.

So your intentions are an important factor. I gathered that you mostly checked to induce- in which case folding to a bet is devistating to your metagame.

Im going to stop now...Im starting to mak myself dizzy.

now I know why Jam sticks with "bet the turn"

[Heine]

alright thanks guys

bet turn, don't check twice..

as played call river (BET THE TURN RETARD!)

FWIW villian showed 55 MHIG (not worth much)

[Instyle007]

For whatever reason I can't edit my original reply so here's a follow-up.

I still think a turn bet of at least $15 is needed to not allow the villain to draw out cheaply. More could be correct as well to force a mistake (i.e. incorrect call). I also call if raised on the turn.

But I didn't take into consideration the stack sizes earlier. So on the river I bet out about half the pot and call an all-in if there is no heart.

If the heart comes I check and pray for a check or a small bet. I fold to a pot sized bet which would be pretty much all-in by this point.

No raises to both the pre and flop bets stinks of a heart draw. He could also have some sort of keen read on you and know you'll assume weakness from his checks and push without the best hand.

[beachbum]

Given the way the turn was played, checking the river might be a better option than blocking it. The main concern here is how often will he bluffraise a blocker when the river is a scare card? His stats are pretty aggro. That's why c/c might be better than b/f. It probably lets you get more money in when ahead since he might fold to your blocker anyway, but it prevents you from getting the pot (+ a bet) stolen from you on a bluff.

[terencetsao]

mm why not bet the turn?? there is no straight out there... i dont know what he can call u on the flop w/o raising u.. a set??

[Faze One]

You priced out the flush draw on the flop, but a lot of people will call a large flop bet but not see the river without pot odds. The 9s was not a scare card so I'm not sure why you slowed down. Consider...

Raising Less Pre-Flop. (7x is way too much IMO: it screams I have a pair but I dont want too much action). Let's assume you raise $2 pre-flop - this is still an expensive bet to call at 4x the BB and will probably result in you and UTG heads up as before. Now you bet $5 (just below pot) on the flop and $8.50 (just over half) on the turn, pricing him out both times. I think the main problem was that the above average pre-flop raise grew the pot so you had to put a lot in on the flop to protect your hand. You checked the turn rather than bet $10-$15 more on to charge your man for the river. That's the only reason I can think that you checked the turn: the pot grew too big, too quickly for you.

You say, "the turn i figured i'd slow down because small hand, small pot" but you should understand that you can't just put the brakes on a pot. If you hammer a pot and give up on it, someone else will probably start hammering. All those bets will, of course, come in relation to the pot. Small hand, small pot is tough to apply and win with a 7x BB raise pre-flop and a pot sized bet on the flop.