200-400 Hand.

[mike l.]

"There's a lot of money yet to go into this 15SB pot and you're about a 25:1 dog for you diamonds to come in. Throw in a backdoor straight and a percentile for making a pair and you're getting a good price."

very optimistic. be sure to ignore all the bad things that happen when you make a pair and are crushed or pick up a draw and have to start calling raises wedged between two aggressive typical high limit players. you guys arent thinking about this very carefully.

[TheRedDragon]

Easy call.

[DrSavage]

If button has a tendency to check the turn behind here with hands like unimproved AK or TT i think this becomes a close call, otherwise a close fold.

[Turning Stone Pro]

[ QUOTE ]
it may depend a bit on my knowledge of button, but i'd likely call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

For me, it would depend on my knowledge of the opener. The issue is whether the opener looks like he is going to check-raise the button if I improve on the turn and it's checked to the button.

TSP

[TheRedDragon]

6/47 of the time we're going to turn a flush draw.

3/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight draw.

6/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight draw.

1/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight and flush draw.

2/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight and flush draw.

A bit less than 7/47 of the time we're going to turn a pair.

Taken from the turn forward, these are all profitable prospects, possibly (but not likely) excepting the turns where we make a pair. If these should be unprofitable, we're right to dump them even when we make a pair and lump them with the 22/47 of the time when we turn air and give the hand up. Complaints of bad reverse implied odds are largely without merit.

The question is whether the profitability of the 25/47 of the time wherein we improve on the turn outweighs the 1 SB investment which will have been lost those times we do not. I'm fairly certain, without having checked the numbers, that the answer is an emphatic yes.

The combo draws are hugely profitable in such a monsterous pot, as are the flush draws and open-ended straight draw. I don't have the time to run numbers here, but the amount you're going to be required to invest, on average, on the turn certainly factors heavily into the question of profitability. I'd ballpark the number at 1.33 BB on the turn, and hold that we can extract an average of 2 BB on the river when we improve. I haven't the time or inclination to run the numbers from there, but I'm fairly they'll support a peel.

[TheRedDragon]

And I just read the Pete's post on the other thread. What he said. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
6 handed. Typical high stakes players. Two to the right of the button opens for 400. You are next and make it 600 with KJ of diamonds. Button makes it 800. Blinds fold. Flop Q42 with diamond club spade. Check, check, bet, call. Easy call, easy fold, close call or close fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

ez call dude

[d10]

I like how the responses in this thread go from easy fold to close call to easy call.

[The Funky Llama]

yea, it might be useful to first define easy call vs. close call. For example, maybe an "easy call" is one with greater than .1 BB in EV or something (thats kind of a random number because I haven't looked much into this).

A lot of people on 2+2 just say "easy call" because the call is very routine for them and the statement is not really a reflection of the call's EV, but rather their comfort level with making it.

[d10]

I was more commenting on the fact that a decision becomes much easier for people after respected posters advocate said decision.