A-hi pissing contest with a maniac

[Heisenb3rg]

I really like the way this river was played.

You only have to fold out the better hand a very small fraction of the time for it to be good.

Whether the raise is worth it or not depends on 3 very important variables.

1) How likely you have button beat
2) How likely CO is to have you beat
3) How likely CO will fold a better hand to your raise


I think some safe assumptions.

1. There exists a strong possibility that you have Button beat. His turn check is a little suspicious and indicates to me he has air. He may have hit a flush/queen, but you also say he's a maniac , so he's more likely to be betting air.

2. Given CO's flop cap, then turn check, im very confused as to what hands he has. I doubt he's checking the turn with a high PP. Maybe he was trying to get a fold on the flop and has small/medium PP. I think there exists >50% chance that he has a pair here (the number is being pulled out of my ass) Another possiblity is he has a monster and he knows button is a maniac, and expects him to bet , so he can trap you guys in a check-raise. But I doubt he would then check the river as well.


3.There exists a chance you will fold out a better hand with your play. Im sure some people would fold here in CO's position with a medium/small PP. Your read didnt give enough info on CO. But his turn checks seems to indicate he is intimidated, if this is true, you could sometimes fold out a pair. From his perspective he has to consider the prospect of the maniac 3-betting air, this potential scare is pretty potent.

The higher the probability of 1,2 & 3 the more the raise makes sense.If even one of 3 of the numbers are very low, then a call or a fold makes more sense.

IMO, all 3 of them are distinct possiblities and the raise was an excellent play.

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt your post has me confused as all hell.

If I understand right, CO is a LAG and Button is the maniac. Correct?

In that case - I don't HATE your play. My only problem with it is that the pot is multiway, and I have no idea what the LAG has. The LAG CO capped a 944 rainbow flop then checked the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn? That makes no sense unless he has specifically 77.


[/ QUOTE ]


Yea sry I messed this up. Again: BT is the maniac and CO is LAG.


I really cant put CO on a hand that makes sense. He may have a pp, AJ, AT, A8 or something. I dont know why he would play any of these hands like this. He may have been on tilt. I really dont have a clue. I do not think I can find a fold given how weired this hand played out. So yes: I would call a 3-bet by BT if it got HU.